The Oregon Ducks take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Piscataway, New Jersey. Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Oregon is favored by -17 points on the spread with a moneyline of -900. The total is set at 60.5 points.
Here’s my Oregon vs. Rutgers prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 18, 2025.
Oregon vs Rutgers Predictions and Best Bets
Oregon vs. Rutgers Pick: Rutgers +17.5
My Rutgers vs. Oregon best bet is on the Scarlet Knights to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Oregon vs Rutgers Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -900 |
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +600 |
Oregon vs Rutgers Odds Analysis
Why Oregon Could Win As The Favorite
Oregon enters this game with a reputation that’s arguably outpacing its actual on-field performance. The Ducks’ win over Penn State once looked like a marquee victory, but that result has aged poorly as the Nittany Lions continue to slide.
Despite strong surface-level metrics, Oregon’s dominance may be more fragile than the market implies, and traveling across the country for the second time in three weeks to Piscataway could expose some cracks.
Offensively, the Ducks are elite in generating explosive plays but have relied heavily on favorable scripts. Oregon ranks 26th in EPA per pass (0.23) and 15th in EPA per rush (0.18), signaling balance and efficiency. However, those numbers came against defenses ranked far worse than Rutgers’.
When forced into longer drives, Oregon’s Available Yards Percentage (63.0%) shows how often it can move the ball. Still, it’s inflated by advantageous field position — the Ducks start at their own 30-yard line on average, compared to Rutgers’ own 24.
The Ducks’ offense thrives in rhythm, with a top-10 Early Downs EPA/play (0.20), but if Rutgers can disrupt tempo and force third downs, the efficiency drops.
Oregon converts 48.9% on third and fourth downs, solid but not unstoppable, especially considering the travel and potential for early sluggishness in a noon ET kick.
Defensively, Oregon has been statistically sound against the pass (19th EPA/pass allowed, -0.21), yet that strength will be tested by a Rutgers offense built around physicality and efficiency on early downs.
More concerning for Oregon is the matchup on the ground — its EPA/rush allowed of -0.07 (43rd nationally) could be tested by a Scarlet Knights rushing attack that ranks 27th in EPA/rush (0.13) and thrives on ball control.
Why Rutgers Could Win As The Underdog
I'm convinced that head coach Greg Schiano is fired up to fix the defense, and I guarantee that the Ducks' last game against Indiana provided valuable film for preparation.
Ducks quarterback Dante Moore looked lost most of the afternoon, as the Hoosiers kept switching between a Cover-2 and Cover-3 defensive scheme that left him puzzled.
Rutgers has quietly built one of the most rugged defenses in the Big Ten. That sounds outrageous, but national perception often discounts the Scarlet Knights; the metrics reveal a unit capable of disrupting Oregon’s rhythm.
Rutgers ranks 97th in EPA/rush allowed (0.04) and 132nd in EPA/pass allowed (0.27), which seems alarming, but those figures came against several explosive Big Ten passing offenses.
The Knights’ defense is far stingier situationally, ranking fifth nationally in starting field position (own 24) — meaning opponents consistently have to travel the length of the field.
Their defensive structure emphasizes limiting red-zone efficiency and forcing teams to sustain long drives. That could frustrate Oregon, especially with the Ducks’ cross-country travel and limited early possessions.
Rutgers has also been quietly opportunistic on early downs; even though it allows a positive 0.17 Early Downs EPA/play, the context of field position and pace works in its favor at home.
Offensively, Rutgers’ style is built to shorten the game. The Knights rank third nationally in Available Yards Percentage (67.1%), meaning they tend to finish drives when they gain yards.
Their 0.17 EPA/pass and 0.13 EPA/rush show a balanced, efficient approach, not dependent on big plays but on sustained execution.
The offensive line has protected its quarterback well enough to stay ahead of schedule, which is reflected in a manageable 7.10 average third-down distance.
On third down, Rutgers converts 50%, tied for 24th nationally, which could keep Oregon’s offense on the sideline for extended stretches.
How To Make Oregon vs Rutgers Picks
This is a brutal scheduling spot for Oregon. After an emotional early-season stretch that included marquee national games, the Ducks leave the West Coast again for a night game in New Jersey.
The Ducks face a Rutgers team that thrives at home, plays slow and forces opponents into uncomfortable possessions.
The Scarlet Knights’ physical defense and time-of-possession advantage can neutralize Oregon’s speed. This is a bit scary given how bad the defense has looked at times, but the extra day of prep could benefit the defensive group.
Moreover, Oregon’s perceived dominance over Penn State looks like fool’s gold. The Ducks’ metrics are still strong, but when adjusted for opponent and location, they’re not 17.5 points better than a bowl-caliber Big Ten team on the road.
This is a classic sell-high, buy-low scenario. Oregon’s stock remains inflated from early-season wins that no longer carry the same weight, while Rutgers is undervalued due to name-brand bias.
The Ducks have had an emotional last couple of weeks, and teams coming off a top-10 loss tend to come out flat more often than the public perceives.
We'll know if Rutgers cleaned things up defensively early, but I still think this number is far too inflated.
Pick: Rutgers +17.5
