The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, Michigan. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Penn State is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -290. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my Penn State vs. Michigan State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
Penn State vs Michigan State Prediction
- Penn State vs. Michigan State Pick: Michigan State +7.5 or Better
My Michigan State vs. Penn State best bet is on the Spartans. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Penn State vs Michigan State Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -120 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 +100 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
- Penn State vs Michigan State point spread: Penn State -7 (-110), Michigan State +7 (-110)
- Penn State vs Michigan State over/under: 48.5 (-111o / -110u)
- Penn State vs Michigan State moneyline: Penn State -290, Michigan State +235
Penn State vs Michigan State Pick
It's pretty amazing that both of these teams started 3-0 and then dropped six straight to start Big 10 play.
While that's maybe not too surprising for the Spartans, it certainly is for a Penn State squad that started the season ranked No. 2.
This particular bet is almost entirely a pure spot fade of Penn State following a heartbreaking loss to undefeated Indiana in the final minute last Saturday. The Nittany Lions clearly put forth an all-in effort in what became their Super Bowl in a lost season. That result also came after road games against Iowa and Ohio State.
Can the Nittany Lions get up off the mat for a fourth straight week for a pretty meaningless game in East Lansing against Michigan State? I'll make them prove they can win by a margin here.
Meanwhile, Michigan State will benefit from coming off a much-needed bye week. Keep in mind this has been one of the most injury-ravaged Power Conference teams in the country, so I'd expect them to be in much better shape injury-wise following the two-week break.
The Spartans did even start to get a bit healthier before the bye, which led to some more promising results, including an absolute highway robbery loss at Minnesota in overtime, in which they out-gained the Gophers 467-301.
That was the best the offense has looked all year, with Alessio Milivojevic getting his first career start at quarterback. He averaged 11.1 yards per attempt (20-for-28, 311), which is something Aidan Chiles has never done in his career. While Jonathan Smith has yet to name a starter for this week, I'd imagine the freshman gets the nod once again this week. However, I wouldn't rule out some packages or Chiles throughout the game.
The spot is priced in a bit, but I'm still okay taking over a touchdown against a Penn State team that could come out completely flat out of the gates, while Smith should have a plus script coming out of the bye.
If Michigan State can jump on the Nittany Lions early, will they show enough fight in a season that has spiraled out of control? We shall see.
For what it's worth, Jonathan Smith-led teams are 31-21 ATS as an underdog, including 5-0 this season. His teams are also 10-2 ATS as an underdog with extra time to prepare.
Pick: Michigan State +7.5 or Better
