The Pitt Panthers take on the East Carolina Pirates in the 2025 Military Bowl in Annapolis, Maryland, on Saturday, Dec. 27. Kickoff is set for 11 a.m. ET on ESPN.
Pitt is favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -370. East Carolina, meanwhile, enters as a +10.5 underdog and is +290 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 53 total points.
Here’s my Pitt vs. East Carolina prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 27.
Pitt vs East Carolina Prediction
- Pitt vs. East Carolina Pick: East Carolina +10 or Better
My East Carolina vs. Pitt best bet is on the Pirates to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Pitt vs East Carolina Odds
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | -370 |
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | +290 |
- Pitt vs East Carolina point spread: Pitt -10.5 (-110), East Carolina +10.5 (-110)
- Pitt vs East Carolina over/under: 53 (-110o / -110u)
- Pitt vs East Carolina moneyline: Pittsburgh -370, East Carolina +290
Pitt vs East Carolina Military Bowl Preview
Pitt Panthers Betting Preview
Pitt has had its fair share of roster shuffling.
Star running back Desmond Reid opted out to focus on the NFL, as did All-ACC linebacker Kyle Louis. Keep an eye on the other All-ACC linebacker, Rasheem Biles, and NFL prospect tackle Ryan Baer to sit this one out.
Two other starting offensive linemen, guards Ryan Carretta and Keith Gouveia, have been out of the lineup with injuries.
Any player on the cusp of being healthy or not is more likely to sit here. This is a mid-level bowl game against a Group of 5 roster stripped of its parts.
Pitt’s coaching staff is unlikely to push those players onto the field, especially ones like Carretta, who is a redshirt sophomore and probably returns next season.
Freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel took over as the starter early in the year, with some pretty good results. Heintschel threw for nearly 2,100 yards, 15 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in eight starts. He finished the season with a gauntlet of Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami.
The biggest issue for Pitt on both sides of the ball was closing the deal.
Offensively, the Panthers generated a quality drive on nearly 50% of possessions (32nd) but came away with just 3.48 points per quality possession (66th).
Defensively, Pitt allowed a quality drive on just 34.5% of opposing possessions, but teams scored 4.2 points on those drives (127th).
Pitt also gave up way too many big plays through the air.
Based on how the rest of the postseason has gone for, well, everybody, Pitt has a significant advantage with All-ACC kicker Trey Butkowski. Kicking woes have defined bowl games and Playoff games alike, but Butkowski is one of the most reliable legs in the country.
This is likely a depth game for Pitt.
Last year, it played a fully-charged Toledo team and dropped a heinous game due to a significant lapse in focus.
Pat Narduzzi is a deplorable 2-5 outright in bowl games and is 1-4 against the spread in his last five. Lapses in focus may be common on Saturday.
East Carolina Pirates Betting Preview
East Carolina might be the most cleaned-out team in all of Bowl Season. Most season-long metrics won’t apply to this unit heading into the Military Bowl.
Starting quarterback Katin Houser intends to enter the transfer portal and won’t play in this game. Houser ranks third among American quarterbacks with 3,300 passing yards.
Offensive coordinator John David Baker was hired away by Ole Miss and won’t call plays in the bowl game.
East Carolina made a strong hire, agreeing to a deal with North Texas offensive coordinator Jordan Davis. However, Davis said he will first complete the season with North Texas, so he won’t be here to call plays.
USF hired defensive coordinator Josh Aldridge, and he reportedly won’t coach in this game.
Second-leading receiver Yannick Smith (who saw his role in the offense diminish drastically over the season) hit the portal and won’t play. Leading receiver Anthony Smith (897 yards) is considered an NFL prospect and doesn’t have much motivation to suit up here without his starting quarterback or playcaller (although he has not officially opted out).
Tight end Jayvontay Conner (346 yards, three touchdowns) and all-conference tackle Jimarion McCrimon are in the portal and likely won’t play, starting guard Panda Askew (yes, Panda Askew) missed the regular season finale, and starting corner Rasheed Rason hasn’t played since October.
Quarterback Mike Wright is a veteran who was second on the depth chart and, as a redshirt senior, plays his last game. Wright should get the start, but Blake Harrell may be eager to see three-star freshman Chaston Ditta out there in preparation for next season.
Ditta fits the offense better than Wright, who logged 45 snaps at defensive back this year. I’d anticipate at least a half under Ditta, if not most of the game.
Given the state of the roster and coaching staff, Harrell is almost certainly going to treat this game like a scrimmage — especially against a Power Conference opponent — which we’ve seen multiple times this Bowl Season already.
Pitt vs East Carolina Pick, Betting Analysis
Pitt opened as a 6.5-point favorite, a line that slipped slightly before the cascade of East Carolina absences widened the spread to 10 points.
This game is played at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland, and it’s supposed to be chilly. This game kicks off at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
Narduzzi is one of the least trustworthy coaches in bowl games in the country.
It’s gaffe after gaffe or close call after close call. That 1-4 ATS mark is concerning – it tells me Narduzzi doesn’t take bowls seriously, despite an outward appearance that he does. Last year, he walked off the field without shaking hands.
Pitt was on the verge of losing to Eastern Michigan in the 2019 Quick Lane Bowl, but survived with a touchdown under a minute left.
Despite grandstanding as “focused” on bowl games and “development time” for his younger players, Narduzzi is a horrific bowl coach.
He heads to Annapolis as a double-digit favorite against a team that’s willing to throw anything out, including putting their veteran athletic quarterback on defense.
Ditta is a Lake Travis (Austin) product and played the highest level of Texas high school football. He has a trustworthy arm and a deep cast of weapons despite possibly missing out on both Smiths.
Betting on East Carolina is a bet against Narduzzi and Pitt’s willingness to get up for an early-morning mid-level bowl game in the cold after winning eight games this year.
Pick: East Carolina +10 or Better
