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The Texas State Bobcats take on the San Diego State Aztecs in San Diego, CA. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on The CW.
Texas State is favored by -8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -320. The total is set at 57.5 points.
Here’s my Texas State vs. San Diego State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3, 2026.
Texas State vs San Diego State Prediction
- Texas State vs. San Diego State Pick: Texas State -8.5
My San Diego State vs. Texas State best bet is on the Bobcats to covert the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and make sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis!
Texas State vs San Diego State Odds
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -112 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -320 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -108 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +255 |
- Texas State vs San Diego State point spread: Texas State -8.5 (-112), San Diego State +8.5 (-108)
- Texas State vs San Diego State over/under: 57.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Texas State vs San Diego State moneyline: Texas State -320, San Diego State +255
Texas State vs San Diego State College Football Preview
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview: Better Than Suggested
Texas State didn't exactly get welcomed into the season with open arms.
The Bobcats' first matchup was against Texas in Austin, where they were throttled 59-7.
The following week, they matched up with UTSA, which was more their speed, but fell in a nail-biter up until the final minute.
Needless to say, I think the worst is behind Texas State. After a treacherous start, it walked away with a pair of wins against North Texas and Incarnate Word.
Beyond the first two games, I really like this offense. Quarterback Brad Jackson is slinging the ball, completing passes at a 68% clip, and an impressive 10-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Jackson has spread the wealth around for the most part, but his favorite targets are Chris Dawn Jr. and Kylen Evans. Those three have contributed to the Bobcats ranking 10th in pass play success rate, 14th in explosiveness and fourth in PPA.
On the ground, Texas State is just as effective, with Torrance Burgess Jr. taking most of the carries at a staggering 8.5 yards per carry. However, he isn't the touchdown threat — it's Davian Jackson, who the Bobcats deploy at the goal line, with five scores to Burgess' one.
Defensively, despite getting their grapes crushed against Texas, I think this is a better defensive team than the projections give it. The Bobcats' pass defense is statistically the worst in the FBS, but their first three games were against Arch Manning, Owen McCown and Tayven Jackson.
Texas State is real solid against the run, with linebackers Terrence Cooks II and Ayden Jones clogging up the middle.
Against the pass is where I challenge the rankings. Even after playing those three quality QBs to start, DB Trez Moore has been impressive and Tymere Jackson is a sack threat. This defense was given a raw hand.
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview: Trouble in Paradise
As if things couldn't get worse in San Diego.
After dropping three straight to UCLA James Madison and Toledo, the Aztecs now have an outbreak of the mumps.
The San Diego County Public Health Services has confirmed 14 cases on the team, and that's not including the 17 players who were already on the injury report, nine of which are unavailable to play.
Amongst those injuries are to running backs Javion Kinnard and Lucky Sutton. Kinnard is the bigger difference maker as he amasses the majority of the carries and averages 5.6 yards per carry. He's listed as doubtful, while Sutton is listed as out with a high ankle sprain.
Even in sunny Southern California, when it rains, it pours.
Because of HIPAA laws, it's almost impossible to learn who's among the 14 that tested positive.
But regardless, this wasn't a very good team in the first place.
Aside from the Aztecs' cool helmets, they rank in the bottom 10 in every standard down metric and allow havoc on 17.2% of their snaps. When playing the pass, they're also 127th in success rate and 135th in PPA.
Meanwhile, on the defensive end, I've taken a liking to linebacker Sione Hala and cornerback Caleb Ricks. But the rest of the unit has been less than stellar, forcing San Diego State to generate the least amount of havoc out of any other program in the FBS.
Texas State vs San Diego State Pick, Betting Analysis
Mumps or not, I was taking Texas State either way.
I think San Diego State is in a real rough position this season. I talked about how Texas State played some quality competition at quarterback; well, mumps pending, it looks like the Aztecs are rolling out Jayden Denegal.
To quote my colleague Mike Calabrese on BBOC, Denegal "can't hit the broad side of a barn when you heat him up," especially when facing the blitz.
He has a sub-40% completion rate, so expect Texas State to send out the big guns in the pass rush.
I'm happily laying the points with the Bobcats.
Pick: Texas State -8.5
