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The Baylor Bears take on the Arizona State Sun Devils in Tempe, AZ. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Arizona State is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Baylor vs. Arizona State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3, 2026.
Baylor vs Arizona State Prediction
- Baylor vs. Arizona State Pick: Under 49.5
My Arizona State vs. Baylor best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Baylor vs Arizona State Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | +154 |
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | -185 |
- Baylor vs Arizona State point spread: Arizona State -3.5 (-115), Baylor +3.5 (-105)
- Baylor vs Arizona State over/under: 49.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Baylor vs Arizona State moneyline: Baylor +154, Arizona State -185
Baylor vs Arizona State College Football Preview
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
Even though Baylor was able to secure a win over Colorado, DJ Lagway struggled to shake off the rust in his first game back from injury, completing just 48.7% of his passes.
Fortunately for the Bears, Dawson Pendergrass was able to keep the Bears afloat, rushing for 85 yards while averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
While the quality of defense is worth noting, Pendergrass being able to find success on the ground was a welcome sight to see, masking an offense that ranks well below league average in rush success rate, explosiveness and PPA.
If Pendergrass can build on his momentum, the Bears will be a versatile unit on offense, making them more competitive in the long run.
On the other side of the ball, Baylor has been far more productive on defense, ranking in the top 40 in defensive success rate, explosiveness, points per opportunity and havoc.
Even when grading out poorly in average field position due to the lack of production on offense, the Bears are able to make up for it by keeping opponents out of the red zone.
Giving up big gains on the ground has been a thorn in the front seven’s side, forcing them to shade linebackers to the middle when they're unable to plug the holes in the trenches.
Stuffing the run will be vital in the Bears matchup against Arizona State while battling it out against Kyson Brown, who's currently averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Preview
It was as ugly as it could get for Cutter Boley in Arizona State’s win over Kansas in London, throwing for just 95 yards while completing 47.82% of his passes.
Boley was able to make up for the lack of production through the air by gashing the Jayhawks on the ground, adding another 25 yards with his legs while finding the back of the end zone.
Arizona State’s sporadic play on offense has made it difficult for the Sun Devils to get into a groove, entering Week 5 ranked 97th in success rate, 88th in finishing drives and 96th in havoc allowed.
Outside of Brown, Arizona State’s ground game has been non-existent, falling outside the top 100 in rush success rate, EPA per play and PPA.
With neither facet of the offense working, negative regression is looming large over the Sun Devils once the quality of opposing defense ramps up.
Until Arizona State can find success on offense, the Sun Devils will be heavily reliant on the defense to stay competitive, as they field a group that resides in the top half of the board in success rate, explosiveness and points per opportunity.
The Sun Devils' high level of play on defense helps them avoid playing in fast-paced track meets.
Baylor vs Arizona State Pick, Betting Analysis
With neither offense being able to move the ball down the field, Saturday’s Big 12 tilt between Baylor and Arizona State will be a defensive slugfest.
Both Lagway and Boley have been unable to ward off pressure. The lack of production they receive from the backfield also allows opposing defenses to stretch out in coverage, smothering the passing lanes at multiple levels of the field.
In the rare instance either offense is able to get inside the 20, both units will be held to field goals, with the Bears and Sun Devils ranking in the top 30 in defensive finishing drives, making the under worth a wager at no lower than the key number of 48.
If you want to diversify your risk, place a separate wager on the Sun Devils to be held under the team total of 27.5, with international travel potentially leading to a sluggish start.
With the score expected to be close, Baylor is also worth a small wager to cover the spread at no lower than +3.
Pick: Under 49.5
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