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SMU vs USF Odds & Picks: Mustangs to Dominate Bulls

SMU vs USF Odds & Picks: Mustangs to Dominate Bulls article feature image

Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tanner Mordecai (SMU)

SMU vs USF Odds

Saturday, Nov. 12
12 p.m. ET
SMU Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-108o / -112u
USF Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-108o / -112u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

SMU looks to become bowl eligible as it travels to South Florida to match up against the Bulls.

The Mustangs are 5-4 on the season and have beaten up on their weak opponents this season while falling to the stiffer competition. However, last week, they found their best win of the season over Houston. SMU won with a final score that was reminiscent of a basketball game, 77-63.

Now they travel to South Florida to match up against a USF program that has hit rock bottom. The Bulls are 1-8 on the season, with their sole victory coming against FCS opponent Howard.

The program has lost all eight of its matchups by an average margin of 19 points while keeping only two of those games within single digits.

USF has virtually no chance of winning this game outright, but can it do enough to keep it within the number?

Southern Methodist Mustangs

Talk about an old fashion western Texas shootout! SMU scored 77 points while putting up offensive numbers that were off the charts vs. Houston.

The Mustangs totaled 642 yards of offense while picking up 31 first downs in the matchup. They also scored a touchdown on 11 of their 12 possessions.

The defense allowed Houston to put up 63 total points and a whopping 710 total yards of offense, though. The Mustangs allowed almost a first down every play defensively, as the Cougars averaged 10.7 yards per carry and 9.8 yards per pass attempt.

Despite scoring 63 points, the Houston offense only faced five third downs the entire game.

Quarterback Tanner Mordecai returned after missing the previous matchup against Tulsa. The senior really padded his stats in this matchup, throwing for nine touchdowns while rushing one in.

.@T_Mordecai TD counter: 🔟

— SMU FootbaIl (@SMUFB) November 6, 2022

Mordecai has thrown for three or more touchdowns in five of his nine starts. He’s amounted 2,500 passing yards and 25 touchdown passes on the season.

The Mustangs’ offense is reliant on the arm of Mordecai, as they throw the ball on 54% of their plays. That’s because the Air Raid offense is averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 340 passing yards per game, which ranks second in the nation.

South Florida Bulls

This is a horrific matchup for USF, which boasts potentially the worst defense in the entire nation. The Bulls are allowing 42 points per game and over 515 yards of offense to FBS opponents this season. They’re allowing 7.5 yards per play, which is the worst in the country.

South Florida is allowing 6.3 yards per carry (130th) and 9.2 yards per pass attempt (128th). The Bulls are coming off one of their worst defensive efforts of the season, as they allowed a lousy Temple offense to put up 54 points.

That should say all you need to know about this horrid defensive unit.

The offensive numbers aren’t as awful, but not enough to carry the slack of the non-existent defense. South Florida is averaging 26 points and 375 yards of total offense per game.

Starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon was ruled out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury.

The offense has stayed consistent with backup quarterback Katravis Marsh running the show. In his two starts, he’s thrown four touchdowns to one interception while averaging 150 passing yards per game. 

SMU vs USF Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and USF match up statistically:

SMU Offense vs. USF Defense
Rush Success 67 111
Line Yards 73 102
Pass Success 61 128
Pass Blocking** 71 129
Havoc 62 106
Finishing Drives 8 119
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

USF Offense vs. SMU Defense
Rush Success 52 95
Line Yards 52 62
Pass Success 93 65
Pass Blocking** 68 118
Havoc 92 114
Finishing Drives 57 83
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 109 103
PFF Coverage 110 125
SP+ Special Teams 34 105
Seconds per Play 21.2 (5) 27.6 (92)
Rush Rate 47.1% (105) 56.1% (51)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

SMU vs USF Betting Pick

South Florida’s Marsh is a beast standing at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds. He’s been solid in his two games under center, but he’s going to have to be perfect to make up for the South Florida defensive woes. Completing 50% of his pass attempts won’t be enough to keep USF within contention in this matchup.

That’s because this is going to be a long night for the Bulls’ defense.

South Florida ranks among the bottom of the country in every defensive metric out there. And now it goes against an offense that scored a touchdown on 11 of its 12 drives last week.

I can’t envision a way that the Bulls keep this game close. They just allowed 54 points to Temple. SMU could probably exceed last week’s total if it chooses to.

I’m backing SMU, which will be able to name the score in this lopsided matchup.

Pick: SMU -17.5 (Play to -19.5)

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