The New Mexico State Aggies take on the Hawai'i Warriors in Honolulu, Hawaii. Kickoff is set for 11:59 p.m. ET on MW+.
Hawaii is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -350. The total is set at 50.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico State vs. Hawaii prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 12, 2026.
New Mexico State vs Hawaii Prediction
- New Mexico State vs. Hawaii Pick: Hawaii Under 29.5 team total (play to 24.5)
My Hawaii vs. New Mexico State best bet is on under Hawaii's team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
New Mexico State vs Hawaii Odds
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -112 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -108 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
- New Mexico State vs Hawaii point spread: Hawaii -9.5 (-108 ), New Mexico State +9.5 (-112)
- New Mexico State vs Hawaii over/under: 50.5 (-110o / -110u)
- New Mexico State vs Hawaii moneyline: New Mexico State +275, Hawaii -350
New Mexico State vs Hawaii College Football Preview
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview
Early name to watch for Over-achiever of the Year: New Mexico State. The Aggies hung with Florida State in their season opener, losing 34-17, and then blew out FCS foe Mercyhurst, 51-14. Those are two teams on very different ends of the competition spectrum for NMSU, but it's been two impressive showings.
Most impressive has been NMSU's secondary. They forced a 63% completion rate and five throwaways from FSU's Ashton Daniels; the Aggies also picked Daniels off. I won't sit here and try to sell you on the Noles' receiving corps as good, but the Aggies' secondary has been legitimately impressive through two games. The ground game still isn't there on offense after a historically bad 2025, but QB Trey Hedden looks pretty decent.
We'll get a terrific barometer on just how valid NMSU's first two games were this week at Hawaii and on the other side of the bye against rival New Mexico and CUSA foe Western Kentucky on a short week.
Right now, we can definitively praise a few units: the secondary, the offensive line (more than 2.5 yards created per rush), and a linebacking corps that's quick to the point of attack (10 run stops against a very good FSU rushing attack). That goes a long way at this level, especially against teams with problems on the offensive line.
Hawai'i Warriors Betting Preview
It's easy to fall in love with Hawaii. From its tough-nosed gunslinger quarterback to the native culture woven throughout the team to its unique location on the island forcing midnight kickoffs, Hawaii always seems to be the team we flock to in the preseason. In spite of a nine-win 2025 and preseason calls for competing in the Mountain West, the Rainbow Warriors are 0-2 with some serious, serious concerns.
QB Micah Alejado is already (and again) beat up. His offensive line hasn't improved, leading to 35 pressures and eight sacks already this season; head coach Timmy Chang had to pull Alejado with the game on the line against Stanford because of a shot he took the previous drive. At just 5-foot-10 and 190 pounds, the sophomore isn't built to absorb hits, and he's not much of an escape artist. And without top receiver Pofele Ashlock (who hasn't played yet this year), this offense is seriously hamstrung.
Outside of a wild Week 0 fourth quarter, Hawaii has just 374 total yards of offense and 13 total points scored. Against UNLV at home, Alejado completed a paltry 17-of-41 passes with no touchdowns and an interception. The run game lacks—that was a quiet but crucial component to the Bows' success last year—due to that terrible offensive line.
On the flip side, Hawaii's defensive front hasn't been up to snuff. Perhaps not quite as disastrous as its offensive line, the defensive line was shoved around by both Stanford and UNLV — a pair of quality offensive lines, but I mean shoved. Each opponent generated over 3.25 yards of push on every run play, and Hawaii's second level didn't tackle well enough to offset. This is a team you can run on.
New Mexico State vs Hawaii Pick, Betting Analysis
Hawaii opened as a -10.5 favorite at home, but that crashed to -7.5. Under 50.5 moved to 49.5 at the time of writing, as well.
Hawaii may be coming off a home loss, but it's a different beast on the island — since 2016, the Bows own a 43-27 outright record at home (including 7-1 last year), and Chang is 19-7-2 against the spread at home during his reign here. The juice has been squeezed out of the line and I'm not sure I trust midnight island nonsense to keep us under the number with a team having played so vastly different opponents as New Mexico State.
But I do know that Hawaii has a significant offensive line problem. There have been no indicators that Ashlock returns before the upcoming bye week, and Alejado is already nursing an injury (though he'll play). Without a dominant No. 1 out there, New Mexico State has a big advantage in its secondary against Hawaii's receiving corps. Expect Tony Sanchez (and DC Joe Morris) to remain classically aggressive on early downs with the Rocky Long-inspired 3-3-5 approach, but fall into a rush-three, drop-eight on obvious passing downs and let the coverage do the work.
The Bows' offense is broken. They run a breakneck pace (23.8 seconds per play) and pile up the snaps (148 plays from scrimmage), but it's just ineffective. It's turnover-prone. Nobody can wriggle free in the pass game, and Alejado doesn't have any time to throw.
The bet is on Under Hawaii's team total. Without a wild three-drive sequence to close out the Stanford game, I believe we're seeing a much different number and game projection. That was the exception, not the norm.
Pick: Hawaii Under 29.5 team total (play to 24.5)
