The Montana State Bobcats take on the Nevada Wolf Pack in Reno, Nevada. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on The CW.
Montana State is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -162. The total is set at 50.5.
Here’s my Montana State vs. Nevada prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 12, 2026.
Montana State vs Nevada Prediction
- Montana State vs. Nevada Pick: Nevada +3.5
My Nevada vs. Montana State best bet is Nevada to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page. For more picks, be sure to download the Action Network app.
Montana State vs Nevada Odds
| Montana State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -192 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +159 |
- Montana State vs Nevada point spread: Montana State -3.5 (-102), Nevada +3.5 (-120)
- Montana State vs Nevada over/under: 50.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Montana State vs Nevada moneyline: Montana State -162, Nevada +134
Montana State vs Nevada College Football Preview
Montana State Bobcats Betting Preview: Why is an FCS team favored?
Montana State has been a flagship program at the FCS level for many years, with a culture built on toughness, attitude, and team unity. The hard-nosed nature of the offense built around multiple tight end sets and a strong running game allows the Bobcats to bludgeon their opponents, and deep FCS playoff runs have been regular occurrences in Bozeman, MT.
The offense is predicated on having the run game set the passing attack, and the Bobcats want to run the football a lot. The offensive line is strong at the FCS level, but this group is down a notch from the dominant unit that carried Montana State to the FCS national championship last year. Only two of the team's 65 rushing attempts have been explosive rushes, and Montana State has faced two weak FCS opponents thus far.
More has been put on the shoulders of quarterback Justin Lamson, and while he has thrown the ball really well, this Nevada defense will be a significant step up in competition. Dane Steel and Taco Dowler are two electrifying receivers who have game-changing ability at the FCS level, so a key here will be seeing if they are able to create separation against Nevada’s corners.
The Montana State defense looked great in the shutout win against Utah Tech on the road in the season opener. The Trailblazers only ever seriously threatened to score late in the contest against Montana State backups with the game well in hand. The Bobcat run-stop unit has been outstanding in both games so far this season in limiting explosive rushes, but the havoc numbers have not been as dominant against overmatched competition.
Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview: Pack Wins in the Trenches
Nevada has been trying to clean up the mess left behind by Kevin Wilson, who could not sustain the success Jay Norvell achieved. Wilson could never get the program pointed in the right direction, and talent dropped off significantly.
Jeff Choate was the head man at Montana State from 2016 to 2020, where he helped the Bobcats ascend in the Big Sky, and while last year’s 3-9 season may not seem like much, this team was better than the final record would indicate. We saw this team play with energy, attitude, and intensity in the home opener last week, and I expect that performance to carry over here this week.
Nevada ran the ball for 323 yards with several long, explosive plays on the ground. Dominic Kelley and Herschel Turner hit the holes hard and displayed excellent backfield vision. Quarterback Carter Jones threw the ball very well, and his running prowess was a problem for Western Kentucky last week. The offensive line did not allow a sack, and the unit was very physical at the line of scrimmage.
Choate talked about the physicality of “the union” (the Nevada OL) but also said he was provoking more out of this unit this week in practice. Nevada is going to line up and run the football here, and they'll have success on Saturday night.
The defense was incredible against WKU, and it started up front. Dylan LaBarbera was in on half a dozen tackles and registered a sack, while EJ Smith notched 14 tackles and was all over the field. The defense limited WKU to just three explosive plays out of the 82 total plays they ran, and early down success was key to stopping Hilltopper drives.
Montana State vs Nevada Pick, Betting Analysis
This is in a unique spot where the FCS team opened as the favorite over an FBS squad, with Montana State currently sitting at -3.5. I am going to play Nevada here.
Montana State is a great FCS team and a team that has Nevada’s full attention this week. Choate knows the program and players with much more familiarity than in other matchups, having coached there. He knows the scheme, and this defense will have a game plan to neutralize what Montana State wants to do.
The Nevada offense is going to move the ball on the ground against Montana State and should be able to stack successful rushing plays together, finding opportunities to get the ball into the red zone. Carter Jones showed impressive decision-making skills last week, and he looked very comfortable with the ball in his hands. His running element adds a dynamic that Montana State has not had to deal with this season, and the Wolf Pack offensive line will have a big impact on this game.
Montana State is going to run the ball a lot. The weather report calls for sustained high winds of 15-18 MPH with gusts of 30-50 MPH, according to the National Weather Service, which has issued wind alerts in the area.
I do not believe the Bobcats will be able to throw the football, which really inhibits the ability of Dane Steel and Taco Dowler as pass receivers. The Bobs' ground game has been strong, but they've not lined up against a front as fast and physical as what we saw from Nevada last week, so moving the football is going to be a challenge.
Nevada has an advantage in the trenches. People may point to 2024, when Montana State went to Albuquerque, NM, and defeated New Mexico as a data point for success in this game. That prior New Mexico team was very weak at the point of attack, with a defense that could not get stops against anyone they played all season.
Nevada will win the battle in the trenches and create pressure on Montana State quarterback Justin Lamson that he's yet to come across this season. In the second half, with the game on the line, that will be the difference. This game could come down to one team kicking a field goal late to break a tie, so getting the +3.5 with Nevada is the play.
Pick: Nevada +3.5
