To complete our Week 2 of the college football season, I have two spots I'm eyeing for the late-night window.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 2, here's the full piece. This is the first spots piece that I've completed this season.
- 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
- 2026: 0-0
- Overall: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
Week 2 College Football Picks (Late-Night Window)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 10 p.m. | Air Force +6 | |
| 10:30 p.m. | Fresno State -18.5 |
Air Force +6 vs. North Dakota State
10 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
I couldn't believe this line when it came out, as I actually project Air Force as a slight favorite. I did not expect North Dakota State to open at the same price it closed at in its home opener.
Yes, North Dakota State has looked impressive through two games in its first season at the FBS level, but both of its victories came at home, with the first coming in a super smash spot vs. Jacksonville State and the other coming against a very poor FCS team.
Air Force will present a much more strenuous test on the road in altitude with a unique offense. This is new territory for the Bison in their first year in the league.
Meanwhile, I'm super high on this Air Force team this season, and the Falcons should come into this game much fresher after just playing one game at home against an overmatched FCS opponent.
Points should come at a premium with two-run heavy teams that won't play with much tempo. Expect an absolute slugfest in which the Flyboys come out on top.
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The Bison have gone 8-0 in program history vs. FCS triple-option teams, with the only recent matchup coming last season in a shutout victory over overmatched Citadel.
Defensive coordinator Grant Olson also once logged a program-record 29 tackles in a 2012 playoff victory over Wofford (which ran the triple at the time).
Pick: Air Force +6 (Play to +3 — look for live or best + moneyline in market if line doesn't come back up)
Fresno State -18.5 vs. Sacramento State
10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
This is as ugly as it gets. Needing Fresno State to win by 20-plus with Jayden Mandal, who couldn't have played worse at quarterback in the opener against USC.
In that game, he finished 7-of-15 for 77 yards with zero touchdowns to one interception, and he took not one but two safeties! Incredible.
This will at least be an exponentially easier task against Sacramento State — one of the three worst FBS teams in the country.
The Hornets looked miserable in the opener against Eastern Michigan before tacking on some yards and points late when Carson Conklin got hot against an Eagles defense that started to play very soft on the back end with a big lead.
Last week, they destroyed Mississippi Valley State, which you just can't take anything from.
And while I'm not a huge fan of Conklin (who was at Fresno State last year), I do still have about a field-goal downgrade from him to backup Jackson Sharman, who will get the start this week due to Conklin's injury.
Sharman came from FCS Idaho State where he didn't even start, so I'm not expecting much offensive output against a Fresno State defense that should be out for blood following the blowout loss to a far superior Trojans team last Friday (which also gives them an extra day of rest/prep).
I project this over three touchdowns with the backup in for Sacramento State, so I happily laid -18.5 with Fresno.
I also split the wager with the under, as it's not like I expect the Fresno State offense to suddenly light the world on fire and its pace should remain slow. Hopefully, we get something like 30-6.
This is a perfect bounce-back/get-right spot for the Bulldogs in their home opener.
How rare is it for an FBS team to lay over two touchdowns after getting shut out? Well, we haven't seen it since the 2021 season. Since 2005, teams in that spot have gone 12-14 ATS overall.
Pick: Fresno State -18.5 (Play to -19.5)















