The South Alabama Jaguars take on the North Texas Mean Green in Denton, Texas. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
North Texas is favored by -12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. The total is set at 62 points.
Here’s my South Alabama vs. North Texas prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 27, 2025.
South Alabama vs North Texas Prediction
- South Alabama vs. North Texas Pick: North Texas Team Total Over 37.5
My North Texas vs. South Alabama best bet is on the Mean Green going over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
South Alabama vs North Texas Odds
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 62 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 62 -110o / -110u | -500 |
- South Alabama vs North Texas point spread: North Texas -12.5
- South Alabama vs North Texas over/under: 62 points
- South Alabama vs North Texas moneyline: South Alabama +375, North Texas -500
South Alabama vs North Texas Preview
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview: Defensive Concerns Continue to Raise Eyebrows
It's hard to win an FBS game when your defense surrenders 30 points every week. Even against FCS Morgan State — a team that was shut out 60-0 by Toledo two weeks later — the Jaguars gave up three 75+ yard touchdown drives.
Almost nobody is worse tackling than South Alabama; it ranks second-worst in PFF tackling grades thanks to 62 missed tackles through four games.
There's not much personnel to be excited about on the defense and the scheme is subpar. Defensive coordinator Will Windham led the Jags to a 66th finish in points per drive last year, and that's slipped to 118th in the early goings this year.
Tulane and Auburn had more talent on their offenses, but the 38 points surrendered to a floundering Coastal Carolina team is seriously concerning.
One player to monitor closely is center Malachi Preciado. He missed the Coastal game, and both guards took shots at snapping the ball to some seriously detrimental results. If Preciado doesn't go, this offense won't find rhythm and that could bring it to a screeching halt right out of the gate.
Quarterback Bishop Davenport puts the ball in harm's way too often, the offensive line gives up far too much pressure and the receiving corps has the fifth-most drops in the FBS (seventh). Without a capital-D "Dude" in the backfield (like Fluff Bothwell), South Alabama's offense struggles.
There's reasonable concerns all over the board for a team that hits the road with a chance to be on the wrong side of program history.
North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview: Mestemaker Continues Hot Start
This weekend, North Texas seeks its first 5-0 start to a season since 1959.
Drew Mestemaker has taken the American by storm after the surprising overtake of Reese Poffenbarger for the QB1 job in Denton.
He's one of just two quarterbacks nationally with at least 1,000 passing yards, no interceptions and a 70%+ completion rate through four games (Jayden Maiava, USC).
But what's really driven this offense has been the success on the ground. North Texas ranks first nationally in Rushing Success Rate and four different backs have two-plus rushing touchdowns.
Nobody in the country has picked up more available yards than the Mean Green, who have gained 67.2% of all yards available through four games.
Defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity is really making a name for himself.
After leading Sam Houston to a top-15 defense in points per drive, Cassity took the North Texas job and immediately improved this defense. Last year, North Texas finished 108th in points per drive defense; this year, that's up to 76th without a significant upgrade in personnel.
At home, North Texas has only allowed 10 total points (Lamar, Washington State). On the road, that number jumps to 34 points per game without a significant disparity in the quality of the opposing offenses (Western Michigan, Army).
The home/away split is a little too early to draw concrete conclusions, but that's something worth monitoring this season.
The formula to beat North Texas appears to be scoring 30+. That's far from a guarantee for several teams on the schedule like Charlotte, Rice and South Alabama.
South Alabama vs North Texas Pick, Betting Analysis
North Texas opened a -10 home favorite and that grew quickly to -12.5. The over/under also moved up from 60.5 to 62.5 points.
We're dealing with a pair of teams that aren't afraid of tempo. North Texas runs a top-15 pace nationally (23.2 seconds per play) while South Alabama sits in the top half (25.8).
The issue is that the Jaguars are oftentimes inefficient with their movement and they turn the ball over far too much (nine turnovers are the eighth-most in the FBS among teams with four games).
This is a team teetering on disaster this year.
On the flip side, not many teams run as efficient an offense as North Texas does this year. South Alabama's defense does little by way of resistance, even against subpar offenses like Coastal Carolina.
However, I'm not ready to buy into the juice and risk what's currently a 50/50 proposition with North Texas' defense.
Is the home/away split viable? It's too early to tell.
What I will buy into is Davenport's tendency to throw turnover-worthy passes and the possibility of a substitute center that caused issues last week. I'll also buy into South Alabama's defense not being able to slow down a fast and efficient Mean Green offense, especially on the road.
The 5-0 start is something a program like North Texas will absolutely strive for. (Compare to, say, a power-conference team that expects 5-0 annually.)
I trust the coaching and several playmakers on offense to do their part to make program history.
North Texas' current team total is lofty, but not unachievable, as demonstrated in three of its four games so far.
Pick: North Texas Team Total Over 37.5
