Download the App Image

South Carolina vs Florida Odds, Picks: Will Gamecocks Hang Around?

South Carolina vs Florida Odds, Picks: Will Gamecocks Hang Around? article feature image
Credit:

Charles Brock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: South Carolina Gamecocks wide receiver Jalen Brooks (13).

South Carolina vs Florida Odds

Saturday, Nov. 12
4 p.m. ET
SEC Network
South Carolina Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+8.5
-114
58.5
-110o / -110u
+255
Florida Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-8.5
-106
58.5
-110o / -110u
-320
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

South Carolina will head down to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville this weekend to take on the Gators.

Both teams have had up-and-down seasons but are on a similar tier within the division. South Carolina is already bowl-eligible for the second year in a row, while Florida will need to pick up one more win in order to qualify for a bowl in Billy Napier’s first season.

Last season, South Carolina came out with the win at home by a score of 40-17. Florida has typically dominated this series, but over the last decade, they have had some close battles. I expect this week’s game to play out in a similar way between two relatively evenly-matched teams.


South Carolina Gamecocks

Gamecocks Offense

This South Carolina offense has been all over the place this season.

You never know if you will get the unit that is capable of putting up 50 against inferior opponents or if you will get the team that struggled to break into double digits against Missouri.

South Carolina is ranked as the 53rd-best offense by SP+, and they are 76th in offensive success rate. The addition of Spencer Rattler has improved the Gamecocks’ passing game from a season ago but still has not been the answer that they hoped it would be in Columbia.

This passing game ranks 99th in success rate and 75th in PPA. They have been able to generate some explosive plays, though, as they rank 17th in passing explosiveness.

South Carolina’s rushing game is OK, but it’s not anything to write home about. They rank 45th in rushing success rate and 39th in PPA. Their main problem in the run game is that the Gamecocks rank 112th in PFF run block grade at 52.0. MarShawn Lloyd is the workhorse in this backfield as he has 100 carries on the season and is averaging 5.88 yards per carry and 0.15 EPA per rush. 

Gamecocks Defense

On the surface, this South Carolina defense hasn’t been bad, but they may not be the best matchup for this Florida Gators squad.

South Carolina’s defense is ranked 37th by SP+ but just 113th in success rate. Most of the success of this defense has come against the pass, as they rank 58th in success rate and 65th in PPA.

Florida’s strength is in their rushing game. However, South Carolina ranks just 128th in success rate against the run and 112th in PFF run defense grade, which may end up posing some problems. 

The wild card here will be how the Gamecocks are able to hold up against the explosiveness of the Florida offense. The Gators are extremely explosive, particularly in the running game. South Carolina’s best defensive attribute this season has been preventing explosive running plays as they rank fourth in rushing explosiveness allowed. 

If South Carolina is able to keep this up, they may be able to shut down Anthony Richardson and the dynamic Gators rushing attack.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Florida Gators

Gators Offense

A lot has changed for Florida since Anthony Richardson won the Week 1 Heisman when they defeated Utah in The Swamp. The Gators have gone on a roller coaster ride since then and find themselves sitting at 5-4, one win away from bowl eligibility in Billy Napier’s first season in Gainesville.

Richardson has been as dynamic as you could possibly imagine on the ground but has not yet developed into a productive passer. Florida ranks 90th in passing success rate, but they are able to hit a big play from time to time, as they rank 13th in passing explosiveness.

The rushing game for Florida ranks 77th in success rate but ninth in PPA, as it is the most explosive rushing game in the country. Florida ranks as the number one offense in explosiveness overall. 

Richardson is absolutely electric on the ground. He has 552 yards and eight touchdowns on just 68 carries. On these rushes, Richardson is averaging an astonishing 0.61 EPA per play, which is more than a lot of the top quarterbacks in the country even average when throwing the ball.

Trevor Etienne is the other home run threat on this offense. Etienne is averaging 0.17 EPA per rush and 5.94 yards per carry.

Gators Defense

Florida’s defense has not been up to typical SEC standards this season. They are ranked 74th by SP+ and 117th in defensive success rate. They haven’t been good at preventing teams from finishing drives (107th) or creating Havoc (126th).

The Gators have struggled against both the pass and the run. They are 114th in rushing success rate and 113th in rushing PPA. Against the pass they are slightly better at 99th in success rate and 83rd in PPA allowed.

South Carolina’s offense isn’t one that typically stresses defenses so this may be a good spot for Florida’s defense to hold up, but they are a vulnerable unit and could be exploited with a good game plan from the Gamecocks.


South Carolina vs Florida Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Carolina and Florida match up statistically:

South Carolina Offense vs. Florida Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 45 114
Line Yards 82 95
Pass Success 99 99
Pass Blocking** 131 50
Havoc 129 120
Finishing Drives 37 107
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Florida Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 77 128
Line Yards 31 117
Pass Success 90 58
Pass Blocking** 41 23
Havoc 32 76
Finishing Drives 78 86
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 54 55
PFF Coverage 105 64
SP+ Special Teams 1 48
Seconds per Play 27.0 (84) 26.9 (79)
Rush Rate 52.5% (72) 56.1% (52)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

South Carolina vs Florida Betting Pick

Florida’s rushing attack poses a huge mismatch and should have a big day. However, 8.5 points is just too large of a spread between these two teams.

Neither defense is great, and I think that South Carolina will be able to hang around within a touchdown in this game.

Pick: South Carolina +8.5 ⋅ Play to +7.5

How would you rate this article?