NCAAF Odds, Picks for Southern Miss vs Arkansas State

Southern Miss and Arkansas State have both struggled to begin the season. However, they've both also faced some tough opponents, so it’s difficult to tell how good these teams actually are.

The one thing that does seem certain to me, however, is that both of these teams could use improvement on the offensive side of the ball. With the style of play we may see, this game will likely not be an enjoyable viewing experience.

With that being said, here's my preview and my best bet to take advantage of for Southern Miss vs. Arkansas State.

This is now the third weekend in a row in which I have written about Southern Miss, so I feel like I have the team pegged pretty well at this point.

Southern Miss is probably better than what we've seen to this point based on its schedule. The Golden Eagles were not able to compete with Florida State, of course, and held Tulane to 21 points, but they were able to muster only three of their own against a solid Green Wave defense.

I believe that this week, we will start to get an indication of who this Golden Eagles team is. Currently, this team ranks 126th in Offensive Success Rate. They have thrown the ball at the 30th-highest rate in the country, but they haven't been effective either rushing or passing.

Quarterback Billy Wiles has shown improvement over what USM had last year, but that didn't take much. He has thrown for 592 yards in three games with a -0.06 EPA per dropback.

Running back Frank Gore Jr. was injured in Saturday’s loss, but according to head coach Will Hall, “he’s looking good.”

Defensively, this team has been more formidable. It ranks 50th in Defensive Success Rate, coming in at 46th against the run and 63rd against the pass.

Allowing explosives and generating Havoc have been issues. Southern Miss ranks 121st in Havoc Rate and 132nd in Explosiveness. The Golden Eagles will need to rein in these big plays if they wish to have their overall productivity match their down-to-down numbers.

Arkansas State was probably the worst team in FBS through the first two weeks of the season. In two games against Oklahoma and Memphis, the Red Wolves were outscored 110-3. It looked like this team had already given up on Butch Jones and mailed it in for the season.

However, in Week 3, there were potential signs of life. Against FCS opponent Stony Brook, the Red Wolves put up 6.81 yards per play and won 31-7.

Arkansas State is pretty awful.  However, it did get back on track with a win against Stony Brook, so maybe the team hasn’t quit yet.

This is a bad program — even for the FCS level — but the win does create some potential momentum for Jones’ squad to get back on track.

This season, Arkansas State ranks 129th in Success Rate on offense. The Red Wolves' rushing offense is a bit better, ranking 104th compared to 128th for the passing offense.

The one bright spot has been a ranking of 19th in Rushing Explosiveness. This is a weakness for the Southern Miss defense and may be the main hope the Red Wolves have of putting points on the board.

Defensively, things haven't been much better. Arkansas State ranks 120th in Success Rate Allowed and 122nd in Finishing Drives. The Red Wovles are also 93rd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 127th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Southern Miss and Arkansas State match up statistically:

Southern Miss Offense vs. Arkansas State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	123	94
Line Yards	131	81
Pass Success	113	120
Havoc	98	97
Finishing Drives	103	121
Quality Drives	88	123

Arkansas State Offense vs. Southern Miss Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	110	46
Line Yards	113	96
Pass Success	128	67
Havoc	87	83
Finishing Drives	128	98
Quality Drives	132	103

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	119	70
PFF Coverage	97	106
Special Teams SP+	82	122
Middle 8	128	101
Seconds per Play	30.0 (113)	23.8 (19)
Rush Rate	49.2% (103)	52.1% (96)

While I do think that Southern Miss is the better team, I think that the current line may be a touch over-inflated.

However, I can't stomach backing Arkansas State at this point in the season.

Instead, for the second week in a row, I will be on the under in a Southern Miss game.

I believe that both of these offenses are putrid, while the defenses are a bit more respectable – despite the early-season numbers.

I don’t expect much scoring from either of these teams unless Wiles is able to turn the corner and provide USM with the passing game it's been searching for.

I’m going to bet against that happening this week and take the under at 49 points.