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The TCU Horned Frogs take on the Baylor Bears in Waco, Texas, on Saturday, Oct. 17. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on FS1.
Baylor is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -235. TCU, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +190 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48.5 total points.
Here’s my TCU vs. Baylor prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 17.
TCU vs Baylor Prediction
- TCU vs. Baylor Pick: TCU Team Total Under 20.5
My Baylor vs. TCU best bet is on under the Horned Frogs' team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and be sure to download our Action Network app to get the latest picks and College Football betting analysis.
TCU vs Baylor Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 +100 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +190 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -122 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -235 |
- TCU vs Baylor point spread: Baylor -5.5 (-122), TCU +5.5 (+100)
- TCU vs Baylor over/under: 48.5 (-105o / -115u)
- TCU vs Baylor moneyline: TCU +190, Baylor -235
TCU vs Baylor College Football Preview
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Overestimated Offense, Underestimated Defense
A lot of us were wrong about TCU this summer. Quarterback Jaden Craig carried a ton of optimism after setting records at Harvard, and offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis appeared to be a wise hire in the wake of Kendal Briles' departure.
Many expected the offensive line to improve, predicting TCU could lean on its newfound physical offense to carry some of the load as the defense adjusted to major departures.
Instead, TCU rosters a top-25 defense and bottom-25 offense.
The latter has been a critical weakness this season — the Horned Frogs average a paltry 11 points per game against power conference foes, paced by its 13-point offensive output against UCF.
The offensive line is atrocious (1.14 Line Yards generated ranks sixth-worst in the FBS), and the level of opposing defense is below the national average.
TCU slowed its tempo way down to outside the top 100, hurting a team with little explosive potential already.
Chalk it up to coaching or to the step up in competition, but Craig has been bad against decent competition.
His season-long numbers are propped up by his games against Arkansas State (337 yards, three touchdowns) and Grambling (391 yards, four touchdowns). Outside of those two overmatched opponents, Craig has accounted for one total touchdown.
Fortunately for the Frogs, Andy Avalos' defense has taken root in Fort Worth.
It held BYU to 17 points — granted, the Cougars lost star running back LJ Martin right away, and there's little else posing an explosive threat — and all opponents to 21 or fewer.
It hasn't been a terrific cast of opposing offenses, but the ability is clearly there. TCU's defense stands 11th in adjusted EPA Per Play allowed and 14th in yards per play allowed.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview: Reckoning Coming, Just Not Yet
Dave Aranda was one of the first names mentioned when discussing "hot seat" coaches that could be let go before season's end.
Despite this, Baylor has been fortunate with its draw to start the year, going 4-1 with four convincing wins and one razor-close loss in Atlanta — a game Baylor was a literal inch away from winning (against Auburn).
It's reasonable to expect Baylor's outlook to temper the minute it plays quality opponents. But scour this schedule, and there's a straightforward path to 8-1 with upcoming games against TCU, Kansas, UCF and Iowa State.
Aranda handed off defensive play-calling duties to defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman, and the results were immediate. Baylor fields a top-25 defense in terms of raw yards per play allowed, Points Per Drive allowed and Havoc rate.
Granted, adjust for opponent, and Baylor's EPA Per Play allowed drops to 44th, as it hasn't played a top-75 offense yet. But at least the follow-through on becoming more aggressive is there.
Baylor has forced 11 takeaways and logged a sack on 7.8% of snaps (33rd).
The offense, meanwhile, has been inconsistent.
Quarterback DJ Lagway struggled with injury for a few weeks, giving way to Nate Bennett (who looked pretty good!), but his get-right game came in Week 5 when Lagway torched Arizona State for 304 yards and four touchdowns.
Gavin Freeman has been outstanding out wide for the Bears, surpassing 100 yards in three separate games so far.
But the run game hasn't been there, and Baylor hasn't faced a ton of great fronts yet (and will continue not to do so).
The reckoning is coming for Baylor, but not for a while. It closes at BYU before a home game against Texas Tech and another road trip to Houston.
TCU vs Baylor Pick, Betting Analysis
This isn't your high-flying Bluebonnet Bowl — or whatever TCU and Baylor fans aren't calling this series — anymore.
A few factors lead me to this bet.
First, Waco appears to have some pretty strong winds inbound Saturday as the entire east-central half of the U.S. undergoes a dramatic shift from record-breaking temperatures to seasonably cool ones.
From Michigan to Virginia and Texas, widespread gusty conditions are expected as winter makes its first move toward the Continental U.S.
In Waco, sustained winds of 12-15 MPH from the north are expected — winds that likely swirl inside McLane Stadium given its open end zone facing south — with gusts near 25 MPH.
Second, TCU's offense is broken. It had a bye week to figure things out after playing in London and didn't.
It's a logical conclusion that Craig is a bad quarterback and the Sammis offense doesn't mesh with TCU's roster or what Sonny Dykes wants to do. It's an odd pairing, and one that's clearly not in sync yet.
Perhaps the second bye week straightens things out.
But regardless of opponent strength, Baylor's defense has worked as it should. Klanderman is well-established as a strong defensive coordinator who's familiar with TCU from his time at Kansas State (2019-25).
Until proven otherwise, I'm going to assume TCU is incapable of scoring 21 points as an offense.
If you bet with our expert, Joshua Nunn, you got a better number than this a couple of days ago. But hey, deadlines are deadlines, and I'm still confident in TCU's inability to score, especially against what I consider a solid defense.
Pick: TCU Team Total Under 20.5
TCU vs Baylor Betting Trends
