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A juicy noon ET slate takes center stage with No. 16 Mississippi State vs. No. 22 LSU, No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Indiana and Florida traveling to No. 7 Texas.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 7, here's the full piece. So, here's my college football predictions (noon) for Week 7.
- 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
- 2026: 34-20-1 (63.0%)
- Overall: 257-198-4 (56.5%)
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College Football Predictions for Week 7 Noon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Indiana +3.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Ball State +7.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | LSU -11.5 |
  | 1:30 p.m. | Central Michigan +7 |
Indiana +3.5 vs. Ohio State
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
You're going to give me the hook at home with the best coach in college football? Yes, please.
I understand Ohio State has revenge on its mind from last year's Big Ten Championship loss, but this is a coin-flip game, in my humble opinion.
I don't think either of these teams (at the moment) is as good as the versions we saw last season.
Indiana's offense just isn't as efficient (though the Hoosiers are much more explosive) and is a bit weaker in run blocking and at tight end.
The Hoosiers also are a bit more vulnerable on the back end, where they really miss D'Angelo Ponds, Louis Moore and Devan Boykin.
Meanwhile, Ohio State still has Heisman frontrunner Jeremiah Smith (who could go down as the greatest wide receiver in college football history), but the supporting cast around him has taken a step back.
The Buckeyes are also nowhere near as dominant on the defensive end as last year's historically great stop unit. Ohio State is struggling to stop the run and can't generate any consistent pass rush, which I believe is the key to this game.
Both of these quarterbacks are vulnerable when pressured. That's when the mistakes come from Josh Hoover, and Julian Sayin's lack of mobility comes into play (15% Success Rate on scrambles against Iowa and Maryland).
Look no further than last year's meetings with Indiana and Miami to end the season. Sayin took five sacks in each contest and threw three interceptions combined.
Well, this Indiana front (that will use lots of stunts and sim pressures) can still generate pressure at an elite level, and Ohio State will have to contain that group without its best offensive tackle.
And given Ohio State's struggles in the run game (123rd in explosive run rate), Sayin is certainly going to face many known passing situations, which should kill plenty of drives and potentially lead to some interceptions or fumbles (Indiana is overdue to eventually recover one this season).
Under pressure last year, Sayin completed just 58% of his passes compared to 82% when kept clean. That delta is over 20% once again this season with two big-time throws to five turnover-worthy plays.
The best defense for Jeremiah Smith (who's going to get his against anybody) is to pressure Sayin.
Conversely, I expect Indiana to have more success running the ball on early downs against Ohio State, which ranks 44th in Success Rate against opposing ground games after finishing seventh in that area last year.
That will keep Hoover out of as many obvious passing situations.
However, even when he does have to drop back on third downs, Ohio State just isn't getting to opposing quarterbacks and will now have to face an IU offensive line that has been absolutely elite in pass protection.
As a result, Hoover should have time to find his elite wide receivers on the outside who should have some exploitable matchups.
Look, Ohio State could easily win this game, but I have to take the hook here. Ultimately, I believe the game comes down to pressure with both of these quarterbacks, and I just trust the Indiana offensive and defensive lines more.
I also don't mind backing Cignetti as a 'dog of over a field goal in the biggest home game in program history.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Trend
Curt Cignetti went 2-0 SU as an underdog last season, beating both Ohio State and Oregon on the road.
Pick: Indiana +3.5 (Play to +3)
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Ball State +7.5 at Bowling Green
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Bowling Green has started out 2-0 in league play, which may come as a surprise to some after how inept the team looked to start the season. However, I'm not buying the mini resurgence.
The Falcons benefited from facing Miami (OH) (in a game it won in the final seconds) with its third-string quarterback and then Sacramento State (the worst team in FBS) with its backup quarterback.
They also got a very friendly whistle in both victories, with the RedHawks and Hornets combining for 19 penalties for 188 yards (many drive-extending defensive flags) to just nine for 89 themselves.
This is still a horrendous BG offense with a D-II transfer quarterback who has a 2:8 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio playing behind a very vulnerable rebuilt offensive line with a lack of reliable weapons on the outside.
The Falcons do have some talent on the defense (although they did lose their best cornerback to a season-ending injury a few weeks ago), led by edge Myles Bradley, but they just don't have the offensive personnel to consistently move the ball.
They also play at a very slow pace, which makes them unappetizing as a favorite of a touchdown-plus unless they're playing Sacramento State.
Don't get me wrong — Ball State is an atrocious ball club.
The Cardinals have started out 0-2 in league play with double-digit losses vs. Toledo and Kent State, but keep in mind they played the latter with a backup quarterback. It's a much different offense with a healthy Keldric Luster under center.
Last week, as a five-touchdown underdog at ranked Northwestern, Ball State finished with 360 total yards of offense.
The defense has plenty of holes, but the run defense is decent enough to hold its own against the impotent Falcons, who want to establish the run under head coach Eddie George.
Keep in mind BG laid a similar price last week against Sacramento State's backup quarterback (who didn't even start at Idaho State last season), and I have Ball State power-rated four points better than the Hornets (at full strength) on a neutral field.
Plus, the Cardinals don't have any major travel to worry about.
This looks like a prime opportunity to fade Bowling Green following three straight covers with the first coming in a superb situational spot, while the last two came against second- and third-string quarterbacks.
Ball State vs. Bowling Green Trend
Bowling Green has been the least profitable home team in conference play since 2005. Over that span, the Falcons have gone just 28-53 ATS (34.6%), failing to cover by nearly five points per game on average.
Pick: Ball State +7.5 (Play to +6)
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LSU -11.5 vs. Mississippi State
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Mississippi State had a bye last week, while LSU played an overtime game in Lexington. Despite that slight scheduling edge, I believe the Bulldogs get their doors blown off in Baton Rouge.
Not only will the Bulldogs be without a few key defenders, but star quarterback Kamario Taylor also may not play due to injury.
If that's the case, freshman Parker Puckett would make his first career start, and it would be a significant downgrade at the most important position on the field.
And even if Taylor does suit up, his mobility will likely be limited due to the turf toe he's currently dealing with.
And he's just not the same caliber of player if he can't use his legs, especially against an aggressive Blake Baker defense that will undoubtedly send an abundance of pressure to exploit Mississippi State's major weakness at both tackle positions.
Look no further than Mississippi State's 56-23 loss vs. Alabama when Taylor was clearly hampered.
In order to move the ball on this LSU defense that ranks in the top-10 in most pass statistics, teams need to move the ball on the ground.
Well, without a fully healthy Taylor and potentially stud running back Fluff Bothwell (it's another substantial downgrade to backup Kolin Wilson), I just don't think the Bulldogs have the horses to get that done on a consistent basis.
That will allow LSU's defense to pin its ears back on known passing situations against an offensive line that won't hold up, especially on the left side.
And on the other side of the ball, Sam Leavitt and Company shouldn't have any issues moving the ball, especially through the air.
And LSU, which already has a pair of losses on its resume, needs style points whenever it can get them from here on out, so don't expect Lane Kiffin to take his foot off the gas, especially in front of a home crowd that can't be pleased with the start to the season.
LSU vs. Mississippi State Nugget
Since the 2020 COVID season, LSU has gone 21-12 ATS (63.6%) in home games vs. FBS foes, covering by over a field goal per game on average.
In neutral or road games over that same span, the Tigers have a putrid 7-21 ATS (25%) record, failing to cover by over a field goal per game on average.
Pick: LSU -11.5 (Play to -14)
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Central Michigan +7 vs. Western Michigan
1:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Last year, Central Michigan lost to Akron at home in head coach Matt Drinkall's first season. He came out and said that loss has kept him up at night for months.
Well, he certainly had the Chips ready to roll in the rematch two weeks ago, as they got their revenge with ease in a 41-17 blowout victory.
Well, I'm sure last year's loss to Western Michigan has caused even more sleepless nights over the past year. The Broncos ended up winning that game, 24-21, following a 70-yard game-winning drive in the final minutes of the fourth quarter that required multiple fourth-down conversions.
Ultimately, that result may have been the difference between CMU and WMU going to the MAC Championship game. I expect Drinkall to have his team fully focused from the jump at home, where they've performed much better this season.
Central Michigan has one of the most run-heavy offenses in the entire country, ranking third in run rate if you exclude the three service academies.
It's paramount the Chips stay ahead of the chains and avoid too many obvious passing situations for their limited aerial attack.
Similar to what Rice did against WMU, I think the Chips (top-20 in EPA Per Rush) can grind out enough yards on early downs to sustain an adequate number of drives to keep this close against a Western Michigan defense that ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in negative play rate and in the third percentile in Line Yards.
CMU should get a consistent push at the line of scrimmage when on offense.
On the other side of the ball, nobody will confuse CMU's defense with the '85 Bears. However, the Chips can hang in there against a very limited Western Michigan offense.
The Broncos will also have their fair share of success on the ground, but I just can't pass up the touchdown at home in a matchup of two run-heavy snails. Points should come at a premium, which certainly makes the home pup more appealing.
Lastly, don't be surprised if CMU benefits from some fumble luck.
On the season, Western Michigan has lost only two of its 12 fumbles while recovering four of its opponent's seven. Conversely, Central Michigan has lost all six of its fumbles while recovering only four of the 10 loose balls from its opponents.
There's just not much separating all of these MAC teams in 2026. I believe this one will play out similar to WMU's game in Buffalo when the Bulls were stopped at the goal line in the final seconds of a 20-17 loss.
Central Michigan vs. Western Michigan Trend
Interestingly, over the past three seasons, MAC road teams in league play have hit at just a 40% clip after hitting at 55% from 2005-23.
Pick: Central Michigan +7 or Better
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