West Virginia vs TCU Odds & Picks | How to Bet Saturday’s Big 12 Battle (October 29)
Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Duggan (TCU)
West Virginia vs TCU Odds
|West Virginia Odds|
-115o / -105u
-115o / -105u
TCU looks to stay undefeated and take another step closer to the Big 12 Championship Game when it heads to Morgantown to take on West Virginia.
For the second straight week, TCU came back from a double-digit deficit to win at home. This time it was against Kansas State, and a lot of that had to do with Kansas State starting quarterback Adrian Martinez getting knocked out of the game.
TCU still has a date with Texas in Austin on the horizon, but it needs to focus on getting past a pesky West Virginia team first.
West Virginia played its worst game of the season last Saturday, getting blown out by Texas Tech in Lubbock, 48-10. It's been an interesting season for the Mountaineers, who are currently sitting at 3-4 and still have three ranked teams on the schedule.
As a result, it looks like Neal Brown's squad will need to pull off a few upsets if it wants to make it to a bowl game.
Quarterback JT Daniels has been pretty average for West Virginia this season. He's only averaging 6.6 yards per attempt and has a 73.5 PFF Passing Grade with nine Big Time Throws and 10 Turnover Worthy Plays.
That has West Virginia ranked 35th in Passing Success Rate, but Daniels has been unable to get the ball down the field for some explosive plays in the passing game.
West Virginia currently ranks 103rd in Explosive Passing. Daniels has a 75.6 PFF Passing Grade on throws over 20+ yards, is only averaging 11.7 yards per attempt and has five Turnover Worthy Plays.
The West Virginia rushing attack has been pretty steady all season long, ranking 37th in Rushing Success Rate, 31st in Offensive Line Yards and 28th in EPA/Rush. The Mountaineers are using a three-running-back system, but all of them are averaging over 4.5 yards per carry.
West Virginia's defense has been terrible this season and it culminated last weekend in Lubbock by giving up 48 points and 594 yards of offense.
For the season, West Virginia ranks 104th in Success Rate Allowed and 113th in EPA/Play Allowed.
The front seven that was thought to be the strength of the defense has seen teams run all over it the past few weeks. Texas Tech ran for 239 yards and 4.4 yards per carry last weekend, while Baylor went for 4.8 yards per carry the week before.
The biggest concern is the Mountaineers are giving up way too many big plays on the ground, as they rank 106th in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. This is not good news when you're going up against a top-20 explosive rushing attack.
The secondary, however, has been the Achilles heel of the defense. The Mountaineers are allowing a whopping 9.1 yards per pass attempt (120th in FBS), rank 119th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and are 124th in Coverage Grade.
Duggan should be able to throw all over this secondary.
Horned Frogs Offense
The reason the Horned Frogs are currently undefeated and sitting in the top 10 is because of their offense. The Horned Frogs are averaging a whopping 7.0 yards per play (fifth in FBS) and rank third in Explosiveness and fifth in Success Rate.
Max Duggan is having an incredible season under Sonny Dykes. Duggan is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and has 19 touchdowns compared to just one interception.
He is somewhat reliant on explosive plays, as the Horned Frogs are only 50th in Passing Success Rate. But on throws over 20+ yards, Duggan has a 91.3 PFF Passing Grade.
Max Duggan ➡️ Quentin Johnston
TCU has now scored 21 unanswered to take the lead 🐸pic.twitter.com/F3jkLJhAPk
— 247Sports (@247Sports) October 23, 2022
That will be huge against West Virginia's secondary that is 72nd in Passing Explosiveness Allowed.
It also helps that Duggan has an outstanding offensive line that has done a great job of protecting him. TCU's offensive line is 13th in Pass Blocking Grade and Havoc Allowed. The Horned Frogs have also been getting a good push up front in the run game, as they are 36th in Offensive Line Yards.
The TCU rushing attack has also been absolutely humming behind lead back Kendre Miller. Miller is averaging 6.1 yards per attempt, has an 82.4 PFF rushing grade and has 21 runs over 10+ yards.
That has TCU ranked 17th in Rushing Explosiveness and 15th in EPA/Rush.
Horned Frogs Defense
While the TCU offense has been playing at an incredibly high level, the defense has been a different story. The Horned Frogs are allowing 5.5 yards per play (76th in FBS) and rank 84th in EPA/Play Allowed and 108th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
The main reason for those terrible numbers is because the Frogs are incredibly susceptible to giving up explosive plays. TCU ranks 126th in Explosiveness Allowed and 130th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed.
The secondary has not had to face an elite quarterback for a full game, and allowing 7.5 yards per attempt is concerning when going up against Daniels.
The front seven hasn't been much better, as TCU ranks 69th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 66th in Defensive Line Yards and 71st in EPA/Rush.
Kansas State just ran for 5.3 yards per carry last weekend and Kansas went for 5.0 yards per carry two weeks before that. I have a hard time seeing how they're going to slow down West Virginia's rushing attack.
West Virginia vs TCU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and TCU match up statistically:
TCU Offense vs West Virginia Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
West Virginia Offense vs TCU Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||94||53|
|Seconds per Play||27.1 (85)||25.3 (39)|
|Rush Rate||55.4% (55)||48.2% (97)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
West Virginia vs TCU Betting Pick
Duggan and the TCU offense should do whatever they want against this West Virginia defense, and more specifically the Mountaineers secondary, which is one of the worst in the Power Five.
On the flip side, there are a lot of concerns with TCU's defense giving up explosive plays, seemingly at will.
It's a little scary laying over a touchdown with the Horned Frogs right now.
Consequently, I think it makes sense to take the TCU Team Total Over 38.5 points, as I have 45.4 points projected for the Horned Frogs in Morgantown.