Tennessee vs. Florida Odds & Model Prediction: Can Volunteers Turn Their Season Around?

Tennessee vs. Florida Odds & Model Prediction: Can Volunteers Turn Their Season Around? article feature image

Randy Sartin, USA Today Sports.

  • Get the latest Tennessee vs. Florida betting odds and our power rating model prediction below.

Tennessee at Florida Betting Odds

  • Odds: Florida -13.5
  • Over/Under: 49
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

All odds above as of Friday at 9 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Florida vs. Tennessee could be one of the toughest games to handicap in college football’s Week 4.

The Volunteers seem like a mess, with losses to Georgia State and BYU and a win over FCS Chattanooga. Florida meanwhile lost quarterback Feleipe Franks for the season and will now turn to the relatively unknown Kyle Trask.

Below are our oddsmaker-style power ratings and projections and keys to the game for both teams.

Wilson’s Model Prediction for Florida vs. Tennessee

Collin Wilson uses an oddsmaker-style approach to creating his own power ratings that can set a point spread between any two teams on a neutral field. 

Action EDGE members can get his projections for every Week 4 game here, and his full power ratings for all 130 teams are here.

Spread: Florida -14.1
Over/Under: 52.2

One Key for Florida

The biggest unknown for Florida in this game is quarterback Kyle Trask, who hasn’t started a game since early high school (he backed up now-Houston quarterback D’Eriq King). He’s now the man in charge with Feleipe Franks done for the season.

Trask actually contended for the starting job last year despite not having much status as a prospect, and looked good when leading Florida back from the dead against Kentucky last week — 9 of 13 for 126 yards, almost all in the second half.

One Key for Tennessee

This team feels like it’s in shambles, but the one key in this game isn’t really a personnel thing. It’s whether or not the market is overreacting to Tennessee’s two losses.

No, you cannot lose to Georgia State and BYU and expect anyone to believe in you. Yes, you can bounce back from that.

The Vols have a positive yards per play differential of, a perfectly fine 47th in the nation. The offense has gained at least 5.4 yards per play in every game this season.

Morale is definitely down at Tennessee, but the wheels haven’t completely come off just yet.

Tennessee vs. Florida Picks

Our college football team is not endorsing a play on either side, but you can get picks from all of our betting experts on this game and many others in The Action Network app.

Odds & Line Shopping for Other Key College Football Games

Michigan State at Northwestern (+9, 37)
Michigan at Wisconsin (-3, 44.5)
California at Ole Miss (-2.5, 41.5)
Tennessee at Florida (-14, 48.5)
Southern Mississippi at Alabama (-38, 61.5)
LSU at Vanderbilt (+24, 62.5)
Miami (Ohio) at Ohio State (-38.5, 56)
UCF at Pittsburgh (+10.5, 61)
Washington at BYU (+6.5, 51)
Auburn at Texas A&M (-4, 47.5)
Notre Dame at Georgia (-14.5, 57.5)
SMU at TCU (-8, 55)
Central Michigan at Miami (Fla.) (-29.5, 48.5)
Kentucky at Mississippi State (-6, 47.5)
South Carolina at Missouri (-9, 61)
Oregon at Stanford (+10.5, 57.5)
Charlotte at Clemson (-41.5, 61.5)
Oklahoma State at Texas (-7, 72.5)
Nebraska at Illinois (+13.5, 62)
Colorado at Arizona State (-8.5, 48.5)
UCLA at Washington State (-18.5, 58)

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