The No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) host the No. 7 BYU Cougars (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) in a Big 12 college football showdown on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Red Raiders are coming off a 43-20 trouncing of Kansas State. Their only loss of the season came shorthanded against an Arizona State team that won the Big 12 Championship and made the College Football Playoff a season ago.
The Cougars, meanwhile, have yet to lose this season. They escaped Utah with a victory in the Holy War and most recently downed Iowa State, 41-27, before enjoying a bye week.
So, where does the value lie in this one? Let's dive into our Texas Tech vs. BYU picks and college football predictions for Week 11 on Saturday, Nov. 8.
Texas Tech vs. BYU Picks, Predictions
By Pete Ruden
Welcome to the biggest Big 12 game of the season. It doesn't get much better than a No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup that will surely have Big 12 Championship and College Football Playoff implications down the road.
These two teams sit atop the Big 12 standings, but BYU finds itself all alone with an undefeated record.
The Cougars are led by dual-threat freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who has been nothing short of incredible for the unbeaten Cougars.
The 6-foot-2, 220-pound signal-caller who wears No. 47 can do things that make people think there's a linebacker dazzling in the backfield.
The Red Raiders, meanwhile, have been escorted to a top-10 ranking by fifth-year quarterback Behren Morton, who was teammates with New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough back when he resided in Lubbock.
Morton has put together the best season of his career thus far, currently boasting career-highs in completion percentage, passer rating and yards per attempt.
The defenses haven't been half bad either, as both sit in the top three of the conference in scoring defense.
Texas Tech enters this game favored (-10.5) to hand BYU its first loss of the season, but is that where the betting value resides?
We polled eight of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under for Saturday's massive Big 12 battle, so let's dive in.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: BYU +10.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff is split on this contest, with the majority thinking that BYU has the goods to go down to Lubbock and keep this game close.
BYU is exceptionally well-coached and doesn't make mistakes. The Cougars have had many big-time opportunities and come in at 4-0 on the road this season.
The Cougars' offensive attack ranks 23rd nationally in offensive efficiency, and the power run game has been effective for the majority of the season.
I've been impressed with Bear Bachmeier, who has really matured as the season has progressed. Bachmeier has thrown for 1,693 yards and has 20 total touchdowns on the season.
The offensive line has played cohesively, and while they'll face a stiff challenge from an elite Texas Tech front, there's a path to BYU having some success offensively.
Getting positive injury news on running back LJ Martin will also be a big boost to BYU.
I figure the Cougars are going to lean on the ground game, and Martin is the bell-cow back who has averaged six yards per carry this season. The physical nature of his running style should help BYU convert third-and-short opportunities and stay on the field in the second half.
The Cougars also boast an exceptional defense that's allowing less than five yards per play and 17 points per game this year. They play their best defense on third down, where they're allowing only 31% of attempts to be converted.
BYU's defensive red-zone numbers have been exceptional, as well. Only 11-of-26 opponent red-zone trips have resulted in touchdowns.
Holding Texas Tech to field goals instead of allowing touchdowns will go a long way in determining who covers this number.
We're expecting a little wind in Lubbock for this game. With gusts up to 27 MPH, we should expect the Texas Tech passing attack to be somewhat mitigated by the weather.
Don’t be surprised if Behren Morton and the Red Raiders look a bit out of sync early in this one.
BYU has pulled all the right levers up to this point this season, and there's certainly a path to it keeping this game close throughout.
Over/Under Pick
Over 52.5 | 3 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 52.5 | 4 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 52.5
Our staff is split here, and with good reason. Matchups between top-10 teams are always difficult to analyze, especially when the teams are so similar statistically.
BYU and Texas Tech both come into this game with offenses ranked in the top 20 in Offensive PFF grade. On paper, this appears to be an easy over bet.
However, there are a few metrics that are pushing me in a different way:
- Stat 1: BYU ranks 112th in plays per minute.
- Stat 2: BYU ranks 60th in Points Per Opportunity. While that's right around average, Texas Tech is elite when its back is against the wall, ranking ninth in Points Per Opportunity allowed.
- Stat 3: The Red Raiders rank third in Standard Down Rate allowed, meaning they force opponents to play behind the sticks a lot.
- Stat 4: BYU ranks 117th in Pass Rate. The Cougars love to keep the ball on the ground.
I think the Cougars will move the ball, but they will keep it on the ground. Texas Tech, meanwhile, will be able to hold them to field goals, not touchdowns.
Give me the under here.
Texas Tech vs. BYU Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | -425 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | +325 |
- Texas Tech vs. BYU Spread: Texas Tech -10.5, BYU +10.5
- Texas Tech vs. BYU Over/Under: 52.5
- Texas Tech vs. BYU Moneyline: Texas Tech ML -425, BYU +325
