College Football Odds, Prediction for Texas Tech vs BYU: Bet Saturday’s Underdog?
Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images. Pictured: Kedon Slovis (BYU)
- Saturday's college football slate continues with a Big 12 matchup between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and BYU Cougars.
- The Red Raiders are favored by a field goal, but is that the right side?
- Mark Harris explains why he's riding with the underdog in this Big 12 showdown below.
Texas Tech vs BYU Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -150 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +125 |
Texas Tech makes a trip across the Rocky Mountains to Provo, Utah, for their Big 12 matchup against BYU.
After road losses to Kansas and TCU, BYU is looking for its first conference win over an entrenched Big 12 team, while Texas Tech is trying to climb back to .500.
Despite having a worse overall record than BYU, Texas Tech is just above the Cougars in the Big 12 standings with a 2-2 conference record (BYU is 1-2).
Non-conference losses to Wyoming and Oregon dropped the Red Raiders to 0-2 from the jump, but since then, they've done a better job of taking care of business.
Let's dive in to the odds for Texas Tech vs. BYU.
It's hard enough to go on the road in college football. It's even harder when you might have to start your third-string quarterback.
That's the position Texas Tech finds itself in after backup quarterback Behren Morton left last week's game against Kansas State with a re-aggravated shoulder injury. Starting QB Tyler Shough is already out with a broken fibula.
True freshman Jake Strong finished out the game against the Wildcats and showed his inexperience by throwing three picks.
Morton, who is considered a "game-time decision," has been solid this season with 696 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions in parts of five games. While Morton may not be great, he looks like a much better option than Strong at this point, so that's something to watch for ahead of kickoff.
One consistent bright side for the Red Raiders has been their running game, which is 31st in Rush Success Rate on Action Analytics.
Tahj Brooks is fifth in the country with 786 rushing yards and five touchdowns, and Cam'Ron Valdez is a great complimentary back with 7.3 yards per carry.
Texas Tech has been able to count on Brooks on a weekly basis because he's rushed for at least 98 yards in each of the last five games.
The Red Raiders have been pretty good on defense and come in at 51st in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 55th in Passing Success Rate Allowed. They couldn't handle the running threat of KSU quarterback Avery Johnson last week, but they won't have to deal with that against Kedon Slovis.
BYU is finding out what it's like to play a Power Five schedule. It successfully concluded its non-conference schedule with a win over Arkansas before losing a competitive road game to Kansas, beating Cincinnati at home for its first Big 12 win and getting absolutely shellacked by TCU in Fort Worth last Saturday.
Through it all, the Cougars are 4-2, and it's hard to anticipate a repeat of the TCU game since that was their worst game of the year by far.
Slovis is having a solid season with 1,392 yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions, and wide receiver Chase Roberts and tight end Isaac Rex are reliable targets.
Slovis carries the weight of responsibility because BYU's run game has been dreadful. It ranks 133rd in Rush Success Rate, which makes perfect sense because the Cougars are averaging just 2.4 yards per carry.
BYU does run into some trouble on defense. It's giving up 35 points to Power Five competition and is 77th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, which is not encouraging. However, its run defense has been decent and ranks 39th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and BYU match up statistically:
Texas Tech Offense vs. BYU Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 96 | |
| Pass Success | 72 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 20 | 116 | |
| Finishing Drives | 38 | 51 | |
| Quality Drives | 89 | 52 |
BYU Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 133 | 51 | |
| Line Yards | 128 | 70 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 55 | |
| Havoc | 103 | 98 | |
| Finishing Drives | 36 | 64 | |
| Quality Drives | 118 | 69 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 32 | 107 |
| PFF Coverage | 79 | 120 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 48 | 41 |
| Middle 8 | 56 | 118 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.2 (5) | 27.4 (79) |
| Rush Rate | 49.3% (102) | 45.8% (112) |
Texas Tech vs. BYU
Betting Pick & Prediction
Texas Tech is favored by 4.5 points in this game — and that really puzzles me. This is a lot of respect for a Texas Tech team that's dealing with quarterback injuries and has a worse record than BYU.
The Cougars also have the benefit of their home crowd, and that should be troubling for the Red Raiders since their only road win came over a bad Baylor team.
BYU being a home underdog in this game just doesn't feel right. These teams look fairly even entering the game, so I'll roll with the home team to cover.
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