Texas Tech vs Texas Odds, Prediction: Can Red Raiders Cover?

Let's take a look at the Texas Tech vs. Texas odds and find a prediction in our college football betting preview for Friday, Nov. 24.

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I hope you had a wonderful and restful Thanksgiving because rivalry week is upon us.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders continue their rivalry with the Texas Longhorns in Austin on Friday.

In last season’s tilt, Texas Tech pulled out an overtime with sparks afterward. Coach Joey McGuire told his team that he knew Texas was “going to break.”

You have to think Texas coach Steve Sarkisian has had this game circled since that defeat.

Despite its rough start to the season, Texas Tech picked itself up. The Red Raiders have won five of their last seven, including a very tight battle against UCF, winning 24-23.

The Longhorns have escaped the past three weeks by the skin of their teeth, most recently beating Iowa State 26-16 while suffering injuries to several key players.

However, Texas is one win away from a Big 12 Championship appearance, so this rivalry game is critical.

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Texas Tech's offense relies on the run. This squad ranks 31st in Rush Success Rate and 35th in Rush PPA.

Senior running back Tahj Brooks has been a massive part of the run game and has been highly efficient. In eight of his last nine appearances, Brooks has run for over 100 yards (the one exception, he ran for 98), and he's found the end zone in seven straight.

It seems like the Raiders found their guy at quarterback in Behren Morton, who took over once Tyler Shough fractured his fibula midseason.

The sophomore has fared well, completing 63% of his passes while avoiding turnovers. There's no top receiver, but there's a bevy of options for Morton to throw to.

Myles Price receives the lion's share of the targets, but Xavier White makes the most of his opportunities, averaging 15 yards per reception. With that, their pass attack ranks 54th in Success Rate and 60th in PPA.

Defensively, Tech has been OK at best. It’s allowed 24.3 points per game, which is ranked towards the middle. It does better against the pass, ranking 54th in Success Rate allowed, with secondary stars Dadrion Taylor-Demerson and Malik Dunlap combining for seven interceptions.

Against the run, the Raiders rank 69th in Success Rate allowed. Linebacker Ben Roberts has done a fantastic job in his redshirt freshman season, leading the team in tackles. Along with him, Jaylon Hutchings and Myles Cole each lead the team in tackles for loss.

Quinn Ewers has been big for Texas this season.

The sophomore has helped the Longhorns achieve the 25th-best passing attack in the nation. It may not be the most explosive unit, but Ewers has been efficient all season. He completed about 70% of his passes and has racked up over 2,500 yards while limiting turnovers.

I mentioned Texas' injuries last week, and the most significant injuries are to the receiver core.

Xavier Worthy and Ja'Tavion Sanders went down, as did offensive lineman DJ Campbell. Sarkisian expressed his confidence that all three will be ready to go on Friday, but it's still a situation to monitor.

Worthy and Adonai Mitchell are Ewers' favorite targets, with Mitchell being the biggest end-zone threat. Sanders is also an explosive threat, averaging 16.3 yards per reception.

Texas continues to produce high-end running backs like it’s a factory. After the departures of Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, Jonathan Brooks had himself a heck of a season before tearing his ACL, but CJ Baxter still put up 117 yards on the ground at Iowa State last week.

Defensively, the 'Horns are among the nation’s best, allowing 18 points per game while ranking 36th in Havoc created.

While the Longhorns have done a decent job breaking up passes, they excel at stuffing the run. They’re among the best at limiting explosive plays, are sixth in Rush Success Rate allowed, and seventh in Rush PPA allowed.

They have many run-stoppers, including Jaylan Ford, T’Vondre Sweat, Ethan Burke and Byron Murphy. They all have posted at least seven tackles for loss.

Against the pass, Texas has a solid secondary led by Jerrin Thompson, who has three interceptions. It also ranks 35th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 37th in Pass PPA allowed.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and Texas match up statistically:

Texas Tech Offense vs. Texas Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	32	6
Line Yards	17	5
Pass Success	68	55
Havoc	20	88
Finishing Drives	65	25
Quality Drives	70	27

Texas Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	85	67
Line Yards	63	86
Pass Success	25	60
Havoc	57	98
Finishing Drives	70	54
Quality Drives	13	55

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	10	90
PFF Coverage	69	94
Special Teams SP+	11	33
Middle 8	37	59
Seconds per Play	23.5 (12)	26.6 (59)
Rush Rate	51.2% (89)	54.1% (70)

Aside from the overtime loss last year, Texas has dominated this rivalry. I think the Longhorns will re-establish their dominance tonight.

The question is, how tight will it be?

The spread sits at Texas -12.5, but I have to take the underdog here.

What stands out is Texas’ inability to separate itself from the pack. It’s been in dogfights with the opposition in the past four games. Along with that, it’s very banged up, and even if everyone plays, they may not be at full strength.

While not as skilled, Texas Tech has shown that it’ll fight until the very end. Morton taking over for the team has also been a massive leap for this squad. The question is how Brooks fares against the Texas front seven, but good runners will find a way to get theirs.

This should be a close game, and I think Texas Tech covers 12.5.

Pick: Texas Tech +12.5 (-105)