The Toledo Rockets take on the Bowling Green Falcons in Bowling Green, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EDT on ESPNU.
Toledo is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -310. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Toledo vs. Bowling Green prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025.
Toledo vs Bowling Green Prediction
- Toledo vs. Bowling Green Pick: Bowling Green +10.5 or Better
My Bowling Green vs. Toledo best bet is on the Falcons to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Toledo vs Bowling Green Odds
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +320 |
- Toledo vs Bowling Green point spread: Toledo -10.5 (-110), Bowling Green +10.5 (-110)
- Toledo vs Bowling Green over/under: 49.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Toledo vs Bowling Green moneyline: Toledo -400, Bowling Green +320
Toledo vs Bowling Green Pick
I always look forward to the Battle of I-75 in a matchup of two schools located just 20 miles apart.
Toledo, which leads the all-time series 43-42-4, will have revenge on its mind after the Falcons took back the trophy last season.
However, compared to my projections, this is too many points (against a generally unreliable favorite) in a decent matchup for Bowling Green, which will benefit from two weeks of preparation following its bye.
Now, Toledo also enjoyed a bye week, but I believe those hold more value early in the season for a team like Bowling Green, which dealt with significant roster and staff turnover in the offseason.
Toledo boasts the best defense in the league by a wide margin. The Rockets will always feature a defensive line that can get after opposing quarterbacks, and they once again have an elite secondary with zero weaknesses. Cornerback Avery Smith leads the country with a minuscule 4.9 yards per reception allowed (39 yards on 22 targets), and fellow outside corner Andre Fuller has arguably been just as dominant, while safety Emmanuel McNeil Warren will be another defensive back Toledo puts in the NFL.
The way to attack this Toledo stop unit is primarily on the ground, with some well-timed short, quick passes mixed in. On the season, the Toledo defense ranks in the top-10 nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, but slightly below average in Rush Success Rate allowed. You have to methodically move the ball down the field against the Rockets, who excel at limiting explosives.
Fortunately for the Falcons, that's the only way they can move the ball with their extremely run-heavy offense behind an uber-experienced offensive line. The Falcons have one of the least explosive offenses in the country and will rarely look to attack deep with quarterback Drew Pyne, who has the lowest ADOT (5.9 yards) among 126 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
Toledo's defense has also benefited from an extremely favorable schedule of opposing rush offenses. The Rockets have wins over Morgan State, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan, and Akron. None of those four teams has any semblance of a rushing attack, while Bowling Green ranks in the top-40 nationally at 4.8 yards per carry.
The Falcons accomplished that against a schedule of opponents that ranks in the top-40 nationally in difficulty, highlighted by road games against Ohio, Louisville, and Cincinnati.
Conversely, Toledo's strength of schedule sits outside the top 130 nationally.
Additionally, Toledo's most recent victory came in blowout fashion over Akron, which played without starting quarterback Ben Finley and several other key starters. There's an enormous drop-off at quarterback from Finley to his backups. Plus, Akron didn't even know Finley would sit out until game day.
Meanwhile, Bowling Green's most recent result was a loss at Ohio. The Falcons were fairly unlucky, as a tipped pick-6, a red zone interception, and another lost fumble by the backup quarterback led to a short field touchdown after quarterback Drew Pyne left with an injury.
Pyne wasn't the same after returning to action for an offense that put up nearly 300 yards in the first half. I expect that his ankle shouldn't be an issue after two weeks off, but it's certainly worth noting.
When Toledo has the ball, you never know what you will get with the enigmatic Tucker Gleason — one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the country on a week-to-week basis.
I worry about Bowling Green's weak outside cornerback group against the MAC's best wide receiver corps. If Gleason has one of his good days, it could be a long day for the Falcons, who are also not built to play from behind.
However, their best cornerback does at least play in the slot, which is critical against Junior Vandeross — arguably the best wideout in the conference. He primarily lines up in the slot — similar to Ohio's Chase Hendricks, who led the nation in receiving before facing Bowling Green, which held him to just one catch for 25 yards.
The Falcons have also struggled to contain opposing tight ends, but Toledo doesn't utilize that position much in the passing game.
Toledo's rushing attack has improved after last year's horror show with the arrival of Power 4 transfer Chip Trayanum, but it's still not elite due to ongoing deficiencies along the offensive line. I don't envision the Rockets having much success gaining yards on the ground against a Bowling Green rush defense that has held up relatively well.
As a result, this will come down to Gleason, who will hopefully have one of his off days where he can't hit the broad side of a barn. Look no further than his two most recent games to start 2025 MAC play. Against Western Michigan, he finished 15-for-30 passing for 89 yards with zero touchdowns and two picks.
He then followed that up with a sparkling 16-for-19 passing performance against Akron for 237 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Gleason has been pressured on nearly 37% of his drop-backs (bad), and his numbers fall off a cliff (much more than a normal decline) when pressured with plenty of turnover-worthy plays. However, that's not an overwhelming strength of the Bowling Green defense, which will need Myles Bradley to create some chaos off the edge.
If Gleason brings his A game, this could get very dicey, but I'm willing to take a chance with the home dog in a rivalry game coming off a bye with a new staff and roster, especially since I project this spread closer to +8.5.
Plus, the Falcons will at least attack the weakest part of this Rockets defense, while shortening the game with clock-bleeding drives.
I also really fancy their special teams for a MAC school, which doesn't hurt.
Pick: Bowling Green +10.5 or Better
