The Troy Trojans take on the Buffalo Bulls in Buffalo, NY, on Saturday, Sept. 20. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Buffalo is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -245. Troy, meanwhile, is a +6.5 underdog and comes in at +200 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 42.5 points.
Here’s my Troy vs. Buffalo prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Troy vs Buffalo Prediction
- Troy vs. Buffalo Pick: Under 42.5 · Troy Team Total Under 17.5
My Buffalo vs. Troy best bet is on both teams to go under the total and the Trojans to go under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Troy vs Buffalo Odds
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -245 |
- Troy vs Buffalo Spread: Buffalo -6.5, Troy +6.5
- Troy vs Buffalo Over/Under: 44 Points
- Troy vs Buffalo Moneyline: Troy +200, Buffalo -245
Troy vs Buffalo College Football Betting Preview
Troy Trojans Betting Preview: Major Offensive Struggles
Troy comes into this game off two highly spirited losses on the road at Clemson, followed by a home tilt with Memphis.
Last week, Troy saw a 73-yard touchdown pass on the third play of the game get called back for holding, which had massive implications, as starting quarterback Goose Crowder was hurt two plays later and did not return.
Backup Tucker Kilcrease struggled mightily to complete passes and lead the charge. The Troy offense did not score and had 54 yards before the final drive of the game.
Defensively, the Trojans really hung in there against the Tigers, but they were put in too many tough situations due to the offensive ineptitude. The Troy offense mustered only four first downs through three quarters.
The Trojans did well through the first three quarters in terms of limiting explosives and getting Memphis off the field on third down. In fact, the Tigers finished just 6-of-15 on money downs.
Buffalo Bulls Betting Preview: Wake-Up Call
Buffalo comes in off its worst performance of the season, as it opened MAC play on the road against Kent State last weekend.
The Bulls needed a touchdown pass from Ta’Quan Roberson to Victor Snow with 1:03 remaining to take the lead in a game where the offense performed well, but the defense — regarded as one of the best stop units in the MAC — was bullied and pushed around.
Roberson threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns, but he did have a costly interception and fumbled a bad snap on the goal line in the second quarter after a punt.
The most puzzling aspect of the Buffalo's game last week was the apathetic performance from the Bulls defense.
Buffalo played completely focused, lights-out defense against Minnesota and FCS St. Francis (PA) in the first two games of the season, but clearly, this bunch overlooked the Flashes on their home field.
Tackling was an issue, as was handling Kent quarterback Dru DeShields, who frequently scrambled out of trouble, hugged the line of scrimmage and threw before crossing the line of scrimmage.
I believe the defense has received its wake-up call. We should see this Buffalo team wide awake and ready to go this week against Troy.
Troy vs Buffalo Pick, Betting Analysis
I like the full game-under in this matchup, which I project as a slow-burning grinder. In addition, I like Troy to go under its team total of 17.5.
Troy's offensive line was overwhelmed by the Memphis pass rush, and Kilcrease was unable to process defenses or make throws at any point.
It was really unfortunate to see for Troy, and head coach Gerad Parker doesn’t have clear answers as to what he's going to do or who he's going to call on at quarterback.
Kilcrease is going to get reps, and the Trojans could turn to Ui Ale and Jack James, who haven't played yet this season.
Defensively, Buffalo is going to plug up running lanes with its four-man front and make it very difficult to run the ball. The Bulls slide well with their linebackers, who are great at making tackles and meeting the running back in the hole.
Buffalo is allowing just 2.7 yards per carry on the ground this season and should really have an advantage defending the run without seriously being threatened by a legitimate passing threat.
Offensively, the Bulls want to run the football and remain a ball-control offense. Although we saw Buffalo throw it around well last week, it was done out of necessity after spotting Kent State a 14-0 lead.
I think we get back to Buffalo riding Al-Jay Henderson and the ground game against a defensive front that has been maxed out the last two weeks against Clemson and Memphis.
Offensively, Troy is really up against it here. It's going to have to become very creative and rely on a quarterback who's completely unproven to get the job done on the road against Buffalo.
I can't imagine Troy throwing the ball proficiently against this Buffalo secondary, and we shouldn't see anything explosive here.
I expect the coaching staff to be very conservative situationally, as one mistake could really force Troy into trouble. Look for a field-position battle and a slower pace game from Troy to try to hang in there with its defense.
This game has all the makings of an under situation. I like the full-game under 42.5 and Troy’s team total under 17.5.
Pick: Under 42.5 · Troy Team Total Under 17.5
