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We're a quarter of the way through the college football regular season. Enjoy every weekend of the games, because they go by too quickly.
We had another 1-2 weekend on our college football team totals last week. The Liberty team total under was my worst call of the season thus far. We're 5-4 on the season thus far on the team totals selections.
There are some marquee matchups again in Week 4. We’ll go under the radar for two selections, but we’ll fire on a big game for one of the plays this week.
Let's dive into our NCAAF picks and college football predictions for this week's team totals.
Oregon State vs UTEP Pick
Quietly, JaMarcus Shephard is doing some tremendous work with the Oregon State Beavers.
This program was absolutely dead at the end of last season, and the job Shephard is doing in Corvallis will have a lot of bigger schools looking at him in the near future.
Oregon State has decided to let it fly on offense. The Beavers are throwing the ball on 70.7% of their offensive snaps this season. That’s easily first nationally in percentage of plays that are a pass. Arkansas ranks second at just 66.9%.
The Beavers have found a really good quarterback in Braden Atkinson. Atkinson has an average depth of target of 11.9 yards, so they're going deep down the field. He has seven big-time throws and just two turnover-worthy plays so far this season.
Oregon State put up 6.6 yards per play and 472 yards on an excellent Texas Tech defense. It also scored 20 points and had 402 yards against a really good Houston defense while also piling up 52 points and 510 yards against Montana last week.
What does the UTEP pass defense look like? That’s the most important question when breaking this one down. The Miners sit dead last at 138th in the nation in Passing Success Rate allowed. UTEP also ranks 136th in PPA/Pass allowed. The Miners are 128th in QBR allowed as well.
Atkinson and the Oregon State offense play very quickly, and I expect them to pile up the points against this poor secondary.
Pick: Oregon State Team Total Over 34.5
Confidence Rating: A
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Iowa vs Michigan Pick
The Michigan Wolverines host the Iowa Hawkeyes in a good old-fashioned physical football game on Saturday. These two teams rank 118th and 133rd nationally in plays per game, so there shouldn’t be many possessions in this one.
Michigan hasn’t run the football well at all so far this season, coming in at 110th in the nation in Rushing Success Rate, 58th in Offensive Line Yards and 119th in rushing explosiveness.
Quarterback Bryce Underwood is being used heavily in the run game largely because the Wolverines just aren’t getting much from their running backs.
Iowa, meanwhile, leads the nation in Success Rate allowed and ranks seventh in explosiveness allowed. The Hawkeyes haven’t played a tough schedule, so that will drop some, but I trust Phil Parker as much as any defensive coordinator in the country.
Michigan will likely have to gradually move the ball down the field against the Hawkeyes, but its very low Success Rate in the run game makes that unlikely. The Iowa secondary is also always elite, and this year is no different.
I expect Iowa to run the football a bunch in this one. It'll take quite a bit of time off the clock on its offensive drives.
Michigan will likely settle for some field goals in the red zone, and I think Iowa will do a good job keeping everything in front of it.
Pick: Michigan Team Total Under 22.5
Confidence Rating: B+
UMass vs Sacramento State Pick
I told you we'd dive all the way to the bottom of the card, and when you're talking Sacramento State football, you've gone a long way down. In fact, the Hornets sit dead last in my college football power ratings.
This is a unique and very long trip for UMass all the way out to California. Objectively, it makes zero sense that this is a MAC game, but that's the reality of today in college football.
UMass sits dead last nationally in pace of play, using 33.7 seconds between snaps. The national average is about 27 seconds. The Minutemen are shortening the game, and that helps with our wager in this one.
Sacramento State has done its work on offense in garbage time this season. The Hornets couldn’t do anything on offense against Eastern Michigan until very late in the game. They scored just three points against Fresno State, and the Hornets couldn’t move the ball at all in the first half.
Against North Dakota State last weekend, the only touchdown Sacramento State scored came in the fourth quarter, long after the game was decided.
Sacramento State ranks 137th nationally in Offensive Line Yards. It has also had a terrible time in the red zone on offense.
I’ll make this one a slightly smaller play because I don’t know how much we should trust the UMass defense yet. Still, at more than three touchdowns, I have to fade this weak Sacramento State offense.
Pick: Sacramento State Team Total Under 21.5
Confidence Rating: B-
