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You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers. To kick off the chalk talk this week, we're rolling with the favorites in two Power 4 matchups.
Let's dive into our Week 4 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Louisville vs. Wake Forest and Auburn vs. Vanderbilt on Saturday, Sept. 26. And be sure to download the Action Network app for additional picks and analysis.
Week 4 College Football Picks
- Louisville -13.5 vs. Wake Forest
- Auburn -9.5 vs. Vanderbilt
Wake Forest vs Louisville Pick
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +430 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
I did a complete 180 on this one. Early in the week I had Wake Forest, mostly because Louisville’s secondary looked beatable with all the injuries. Then a few things changed.
First, Wake quarterback Gio Lopez has an ugly hip issue that’s lingered since Purdue and Miami.
He was listed probable last week; this week he’s questionable, and it sounds like it’s gotten worse. That’s a red flag for an offense that relies on timing and explosive plays.
Secondly, Jeff Brohm publicly said his defense can handle Lopez because he’s similar to Kevin Jennings, who they just faced when they played SMU.
That kind of confidence matters. If the head coach believes his scheme can take away what Wake does best, I’m inclined to believe him.
The law firm of Kienholz, Brown and Brown with their zone-read stuff is also a bad look for Wake. Louisville owns a Success Rate of 40% on inside zone plays. Wake, meanwhile, ranks 128th in Havoc and bottom-15 in Quality Drives allowed.
That combination is a recipe for getting worn down.
Wake’s cover against Miami was propped up by explosive passes to Carlos Hernandez in the slot and Jack Foley outside. Louisville is going to show a ton of Cover 3 looks, though, and Wake’s numbers there are ugly with a 38% Success Rate. That’s well below the national average.
The Deacs don't throw well into Cover 3, but Miami didn’t test that shade of defense.
I think Louisville is going to run wild in this one. And if Lopez can’t go, this line won't be closing at 13.5.
Pick: Louisville -13.5
Vanderbilt vs Auburn Pick
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | +285 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | -365 |
By Stuckey
Auburn -9 to -9.5 for me — anything under 10 is a play. I peg this closer to a 10-point game, but I’ll happily take anything cheaper than that.
Vandy’s starting a true freshman on the road in a hostile environment, and I don’t think this Commodores team is very good this year.
Auburn’s biggest worry all season has been the offensive line, as a couple of USF transfers just haven’t translated up to this level. But that unit should be able to handle Vandy’s front.
Tigers head coach Alex Golesh is someone I trust when he’s a favorite of more than a touchdown; he’s going to want a comfortable win and won’t let up.
This feels like a classic bounce-back spot for the Tigers, while Vandy could be staring at an emotional hangover. Yes, Vandy has given Auburn trouble the last couple of years, but I like Auburn here. War Eagle.
Pick: Auburn -9.5
