The UCF Knights take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in Cincinnati, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Cincinnati is favored by -11 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. The total is set at 53.5 points.
Here’s my UCF vs. Cincinnati prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025.
UCF vs Cincinnati Prediction
- UCF vs. Cincinnati Pick: UCF +11.5
My Cincinnati vs. UCF best bet is on the Knights to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UCF vs Cincinnati Odds
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
- UCF vs Cincinnati point spread: Cincinnati -11
- UCF vs Cincinnati over/under: 53.5 points
- UCF vs Cincinnati moneyline: UCF +325, Cincinnati -425
UCF vs Cincinnati Preview
UCF Knights Betting Preview: Tailor-Made for Close Games
Catching double digits, UCF profiles as a team built to cover.
The Knights field one of the most complete defenses in the Big 12, ranking 38th in Defensive Success Rate, 29th in Havoc and 21st on Third Down Defense.
They excel in key moments, sitting 37th in Finishing Drives and 30th in Defensive Hard Stops, consistently limiting points and flipping field position.
Pro Football Focus grades UCF’s defense 33rd nationally, confirming what the metrics suggest — this is a top-tier, disruptive group.
Offensively, the Knights bring balance with elite explosiveness (second nationally) that allows them to strike quickly and erase deficits.
That mix of defensive disruption and quick-strike ability is tailor-made to keep games close, especially against inconsistent defenses like Cincinnati’s.
Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview: Defensive Problems Lurking for Bearcats
Cincinnati’s 3-1 record hides real issues on the defensive side.
The Bearcats rank 82nd in Defensive Success Rate and 110th in Havoc, meaning they struggle to pressure quarterbacks or create negative plays.
Even on critical downs, the defense falters — 62nd in Third Down Defense and 128th in Defensive Hard Stops, one of the worst marks in the FBS.
Despite returning more production than any team in the country, Cincinnati hasn’t found consistency or explosiveness on defense.
Opponents are sustaining drives and controlling tempo, a dangerous trend against a UCF offense that ranks near the top nationally in big-play rate.
Simply put, Cincinnati bends early and often, and they haven’t proven they can recover before the scoreboard reflects it.
UCF vs Cincinnati Pick, Betting Analysis
The data paints this matchup clearly. UCF has the better defense — ranked 33rd by PFF and top-40 across most key efficiency metrics — while Cincinnati can’t generate pressure or close drives.
The Knights’ ability to force havoc and limit finishing opportunities should neutralize any talent gap and keep this game tight.
Cincinnati’s lack of disruption and poor drive-stopping numbers make it ill-suited to pull away from a disciplined, explosive UCF team.
Double digits is too much in what projects as a one-score game.
Pick: UCF +11.5
