College Football Odds, Pick for Virginia Tech vs Virginia: Bet Underdog in Rivalry Game

Let's dive into the Virginia Tech vs. Virginia odds and make a pick and prediction for Saturday's rivalry game on November 25.

The Virgina Tech Hokies and Virginia Cavaliers rivalry is a long one, dating all the way back to 1895.

The Hokies own the overall series lead at 60-38-5 and have dominated the 2000-2020s, in particular, winning 20 out of 22 in that time span. This means they've dominated the Commonwealth Cup era, the trophy that was introduced in 1990.

Both these teams are coming into this game with losing records; the Hokies are 5-6 and the Cavaliers are 3-8.

This game is massive for each team's win total, as the Hokies closed at 5 or 5.5 at most books, while the Cavaliers closed at 3.5.

Less importantly, Virginia Tech's bowl hopes are also on the line, as a win would get the Hokies to six wins and make them bowl-eligible.

Despite its overall record, one thing to know about Virginia is it's been elite with an 8-2 record against the spread, including a 7-1 record as an underdog.

So, from a wagering perspective, the Cavaliers have far outperformed expectations against the market. Can they continue to do so on Saturday?

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The Hokies have one clear weakness: they're an absolute sieve when opponents enter their territory. Allowing 4.8 points every time an opponent enters their territory, they may as well roll out a welcome mat.

This is something that must improve next year if they want to build on the positives of this season.

Outside of that, this defense has not been awful, ranking 27th in Success Rate and 55th in total Havoc. They're good at holding opposing offenses to short gains on the ground and in the air, ranking 36th in Rushing Success Rate and 22nd in Passing Success Rate.

However, they do allow opposing teams to rip off big plays, as they rank 108th in explosiveness allowed.

Their offense has been much less polarizing, ranking 51st in Havoc Allowed and Points per Opportunity.

They do a good job of converting trips in opposing territory into touchdowns and taking care of the ball on offense. However, that hasn't been quite enough to push their offense into the above-average realm, as they rank 81st in Success Rate and 82nd in explosiveness.

This offense just hasn't gained yards consistently enough for Tech to take the next step as an ACC contender.

The Cavaliers have been good at about two things this season: covering the spread and hitting the over. Virginia ranks ninth in ATS win percentage and fifth in over win percentage.

Those marks are both a tad confusing, as its offense has been below average from an advanced metrics point of view.

The Cavaliers rank 76th in Success Rate, 80th in Points per Opportunity, 92nd in explosiveness and 103rd in Havoc Allowed. These are all metrics that should point toward a lower over percentage, but somehow, they keep managing to cash that bet.

It might be because their defense has been absolutely brutal this season, ranking 116th in Success Rate Allowed, 96th in Points per Opportunity and 111th in Havoc.

They've done a good job of containing the opponent's offense, as they rank 31st in explosiveness allowed, but that's been about the only bright spot.

I don't know how Virginia has been covering the spread this season, but its fight has been admirable. The Hoos covered the spread in four of their last five games and have ATS wins against UNC and Duke in there as well as one-score losses to Miami and Louisville.

This Cavaliers team is really tough.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia Tech and Virginia match up statistically:

Virginia Tech Offense vs. Virginia Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	60	122
Line Yards	88	110
Pass Success	101	83
Havoc	89	109
Finishing Drives	52	96
Quality Drives	78	105

Virginia Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	72	36
Line Yards	77	30
Pass Success	65	59
Havoc	125	95
Finishing Drives	81	130
Quality Drives	76	39

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	104	72
PFF Coverage	95	95
Special Teams SP+	15	77
Middle 8	22	101
Seconds per Play	28.5 (95)	26.8 (64)
Rush Rate	56.9% (41)	54.9% (78)

This is a matchup that we have projected closer to a pick'em.

I'm more than happy to back the scrappy Cavaliers, who manage to cover the spread week in and week out despite their poor metrics.

Somehow, they'll end up pulling it out, just like they have all season.

Pick: Virginia +3

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