Week 14 rolls on with an electric Rivalry Week Saturday slate.
I have three spots circled for the early games, starting with South Carolina hosting Clemson at Noon and ending with Washington hosting Oregon at 3:30 p.m.
Read on for my Week 14 NCAAF predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 29.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | South Carolina -2.5 |
  | 1 p.m. | Sam Houston +10.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Washington +7.5 |
South Carolina -2.5 vs. Clemson
12 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
For starters, I make South Carolina a 3.5-point favorite in this rivalry game, so I didn't hesitate to lay under a field goal.
Both teams have had super disappointing seasons, but South Carolina can at least blame part of that on one of the most difficult schedules in the country. In fact, last week marked the first time since September that South Carolina didn't play a team ranked in the top 15.
The Tigers can't say the same, as their strength of schedule ranks outside the top-50 nationally (while South Carolina's ranks inside the top-five).
Clemson has an abundance of talent on defense, but no identity.
The offense has shown flashes, but there is no running game, and they are now shorthanded without stud wide receiver Bryant Wesco. They also recently lost their starting tight end and a pair of offensive linemen to season-ending injuries.
I don't envision Clemson consistently moving the ball on a very stingy Gamecock defense.
One might believe Clemson has turned things around of late, following recent victories at reeling Louisville and over road-averse Florida State, but I don't see it. The Tigers were out-gained by over 75 net yards at Louisville, which missed three kicks in a one-point loss. They were also out-gained at home by over 50 yards against Florida State, which just couldn't overcome countless mistakes.
This is still the same flawed team that has lost four times on its home field in 2025.
On the other hand, South Carolina has continued to get healthier, and there's reason for optimism on the offensive side of the ball.
Since changing play callers, the entire operation has looked much more effective. Mike Furrey has really simplified things for LaNorris Sellers, who looks much more comfortable and more willing to use his legs. They are getting him outside the pocket more, where he becomes more dangerous and helps cover up some of the existing offensive line issues.
It's no coincidence South Carolina put up 30 points in the first half in College Station (against a ferocious A&M defensive line) following the change.
Keep in mind that over the past month, this South Carolina team has recently upset undefeated Texas A&M and arguably should've beaten Alabama at home.
With an improving offense, I expect them to get the job done in what becomes their Super Bowl in front of a raucous crowd.
Lastly, South Carolina should also have a special-teams advantage, which can swing a game under Beamer.
Pick: South Carolina -2.5 or Better
Sam Houston +10.5 vs. FIU
1 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Sam Houston State is dreadful, but I have to give credit to the Bearkats for still fighting after starting the season 0-8.
They have since won two of three games outright as underdogs, and I don't see why they would mail it in here.
Plus, new quarterback Landyn Locke now has two starts under his belt, including the freshman's most recent outing, where he threw for 281 yards. He still has significant flaws and is very raw, but he does seem to be the best fit for Phil Longo's offensive scheme. It's not unreasonable to expect another step in the right direction this week.
However, this bet really isn't about Sam Houston State, so I'm not going to waste your time waxing poetic about a terrible football team.
I made this bet for two reasons:
- I project this closer to 8.5, so I show value at +10.5.
- There's a decent chance FIU doesn't get off the bus in a very flat spot.
The Panthers won thrillingly last week over first-place Jacksonville State to clinch a bowl berth, a significant accomplishment in Willie Simmons's first season as head coach.
It's also worth noting that they really benefited from Gamecock mistakes in that victory. Jacksonville State went 1-for-4 on fourth down (FIU went 3-3) and either turned it on downs or fumbled three times in the fourth quarter of a six-point loss in which they out-gained FIU 449-398.
It was a similar story the week prior for the Panthers, who benefited from fourth-down variance and turnover luck in a home overtime victory over Liberty, which also finished with more yards.
Following two straight thrilling victories to clinch bowl eligibility, does FIU show up with a focused effort for a road game in an empty stadium against lowly SHSU?
It's possible, but I'll pay to find out at a reasonable price.
This is a large number for a team that has defensive issues, bad special teams, penalty problems, and a head coach who struggles with in-game decisions to be laying on the road, especially with potential motivation questions.
Admittedly, FIU is maddeningly inconsistent, so you never know what you're going to get each week.
Let's hope the bad version shows up this week in a spot where they might be out to lunch.
Pick: Sam Houston +10 or Better
Washington +7.5 vs. Oregon
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
Did I turn into a full-on Ducks believer following their victory over USC?
Absolutely not.
USC was missing its two most important defenders and still can't be trusted on the road. The Trojans also didn't help their own cause on special teams.
Look, Oregon is an excellent football team with a deep well of young talent that will be super dangerous next season.
I'm just not as high as the market on them in 2025.
They have crushed inferior teams due to their talent gap, but have looked rather pedestrian at times against the three upper-echelon teams they have played: USC, Indiana, and Iowa (and even against Wisconsin).
I grabbed the hook since I made this game under a touchdown, but also because of Oregon's injury situation.
The Ducks could still be severely shorthanded at wide receiver and are dealing with injuries at three key spots along the offensive line. We'll see who can give it a go, but they won't be at 100% on that side of the ball.
Washington has also dealt with a plethora of injuries all season, but the Huskies were able to rest almost everybody who had been ailing during back-to-back blowout wins over the past two weeks.
Oregon did not have that same luxury against the Trojans.
As of now, it looks like star running back Jonah Coleman (who should have plenty of success vs the Ducks) and star wide receiver Denzel Boston (along with his running mate Raiden Vines-Bright) will be good to go.
The offensive line also looks close to full strength (maybe except for center, with Hatchett still wearing a cast on his snapping hand). The essential pieces are John Mills and Carver Willis, who have missed five combined games this season, and the offense completely crumbled because the Huskies just don't have any offensive line depth.
That's one of the key differences right now between Washington and the upper echelon of the Big 10. However, when healthy (it also looks like star cornerback Tacario Davis should be good to go), this team can play with anybody, especially in Seattle, where the Huskies have a very underrated home-field advantage.
Purple Rain can keep this close and has a shot to pull off the upset, assuming their horrid special teams don't completely blow the game (which happened for Iowa and USC against Oregon).
Pick: Washington +7 or Better
