Polymarket Strikeout Predictions: Best Wild Card Game 1 Pitcher K Props on Polymarket Today

The 2026 MLB postseason opens with four Wild Card Series Game 1s on Tuesday, and Polymarket has a Strikeouts tab live on every one of them. That puts eight starting pitchers on the board, from a 2 p.m. ET first pitch in Atlanta to a 10 p.m. ET finish in San Diego.

The headliners are obvious. Cam Schlittler, the presumptive AL Cy Young winner, draws a Red Sox lineup he has carved up all year, and Chris Sale gets a Phillies team he beat four times this season. On the other end of the spectrum, both the White Sox and Astros are throwing bullpen games, and Jesús Luzardo is an "opener" with no set workload, which turns his strikeout contract into a leash question rather than a stuff question.

Below is every featured strikeout contract ranked by first pitch, then a breakdown of each game. One note on price shape before you scroll: unlike a regular-season board full of 90¢ chalk, nothing here trades above 62¢. Every contract on this page sits between 45% and 62%, which means the payouts are roughly even money and the downside is the full stake either way.

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NL Wild Card Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

The postseason opens at Truist Park with the best pitching matchup of the day on paper and the strangest one in practice. Braves ace Chris Sale put up a 2.16 ERA and 11.1 K/9 in 27 starts and went 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA against the Phillies this season, with a quality start in all four meetings.

Philadelphia's side is complicated. Zack Wheeler had to pitch six innings Sunday to clinch the final NL Wild Card spot, so Jesús Luzardo, who had thrown one inning since Sept. 7 because of shoulder inflammation, will "open" Game 1 with no set workload and Andrew Painter behind him for bulk innings.

Best Ace Strikeout Prop – Chris Sale

Polymarket has Sale's 8+ strikeouts, Yes at 48% (48¢), with the No side at 53¢. Eight is a high bar for any starter, but Sale averaged better than a strikeout per inning and his 29:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in four starts against Philadelphia works out to just over seven per outing, so the market is essentially asking whether October gets him one more punchout than his season line against this exact lineup. That reads fair, leaning slightly rich, because the postseason usually trims innings rather than adding them.

A $100 position at 48¢ buys roughly 208 shares, each worth $1 if Sale reaches eight, for $108.33 in profit. The path to a No is not Sale getting hit; it is Brian Snitker lifting a healthy Sale after six sharp innings with a lead and a rested bullpen. Polymarket's taker fee and order book depth also mean the realized net lands a touch under the headline figure.

• If Chris Sale records 8+ strikeouts: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $108.33 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he falls short: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 2.08x payout multiple on a coin flip that depends more on Sale's pitch count in the seventh than on his slider, which is why the two-step gap between his 7+ tier and this one is worth checking before you commit.

Best Short-Leash Strikeout Prop – Jesús Luzardo

Luzardo's 4+ strikeouts, Yes sits at 45% (45��). On stuff alone that is absurdly cheap: he struck out 221 this year, sixth-most in the majors, and his last full outing was a 12-strikeout, 109-pitch shutout of these same Braves. On usage it is about right, because Don Mattingly has called him the opener, he threw four pitches in his only appearance since Sept. 7, and a stint of one to four innings is the realistic range.

At 45¢, $100 buys about 222 shares and returns $122.22 in profit if he gets to four. The No is the Phillies pulling him after two clean innings to hand the game to Painter, which is exactly what the word "opener" implies. Fees and a thin order book on a market this specific shave the net a little further.

• If Jesús Luzardo records 4+ strikeouts: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $122.22 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he falls short: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

A 2.22x multiple on the highest-variance contract of the day: if Luzardo looks like the Sept. 7 version, four strikeouts can arrive by the third inning, and if he does not, he may never see the fourth.

AL Wild Card Game 1: Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction

Both dugouts in Houston have announced bullpen games. Hagen Smith, the fifth overall pick in 2024, opens for the White Sox after posting a 1.29 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 28 innings as a reliever since August, and three innings is the longest outing of his career. AJ Blubaugh opens for the Astros after 64 relief appearances, 94 strikeouts in 96 innings, and a league-leading 27 outings of two innings or more.

The strikeout thresholds here are 2+, and the pricing reflects the format rather than the arms: neither pitcher is expected to see the fourth inning, so the question is whether two or three innings of work produces two punchouts.

Best Bullpen-Game Strikeout Prop – AJ Blubaugh

Blubaugh's 2+ strikeouts, Yes is the shortest price on the board at 62% (62¢), with No at 39¢. His 8.8 K/9 means two strikeouts is a normal two-inning stint, and the White Sox lineup's reputation for strikeouts is well documented, though they also walk plenty and run. The number looks fair; the thing to watch is how quickly Joe Espada goes to his high-leverage arms in a best-of-three.

$100 at 62¢ is roughly 161 shares and $61.29 in profit. The No path is a quick hook after a two-inning, one-strikeout outing, which is a live risk for a pitcher who threw 15 pitches on Friday and is being asked to open rather than pitch. Fees make the realized return slightly thinner than the table suggests.

• If AJ Blubaugh records 2+ strikeouts: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $61.29 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he falls short: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

That works out to about a 1.61x multiple, a reasonable price for the most likely Yes on the page, provided the reader accepts that "most likely" here still means roughly three in five.

Best Low-Threshold Strikeout Prop – Hagen Smith

Smith's 2+ strikeouts, Yes trades at 60% (60¢). His rate is the best on the board, 41 strikeouts in 28 innings is over 13 per nine, so two punchouts in two innings is roughly his median outing. The market is discounting for the leash, and Chris Getz has said the plan is high-end two- and three-inning outings, so the price reads a touch light for the stuff and about right for the role.

A $100 position at 60¢ buys about 167 shares and pays $66.67 in profit on a Yes. The realistic No is Will Venable pulling him after one turn through Houston's top of the order, Yordan Alvarez included, especially if he walks a couple in a nervy first postseason inning. Taker fees on Polymarket sports markets trim the net slightly.

• If Hagen Smith records 2+ strikeouts: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $66.67 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he falls short: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

A 1.67x multiple on a pitcher whose stuff clears the bar easily and whose manager might not let him get there is the whole bullpen-game problem in one line.

AL Wild Card Game 1: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

The Bronx gets the night's marquee arm. Cam Schlittler finished 14-6 with an AL-best 1.95 ERA and 239 strikeouts in 193 2/3 innings, 11.1 per nine, and struck out about 31% of the hitters he faced. Against Boston he has been even better: 27 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings across four starts this year, plus 12 strikeouts in eight innings against them in last year's Wild Card Game 3.

Payton Tolle is no soft opponent. The 23-year-old rookie lefty struck out 171 in 148 2/3 innings, about 28% of batters, and struck out 18 Yankees across two starts this season while holding them to a .093 average. He also enters on six days' rest, and Aaron Judge is off New York's roster with a calf strain.

Best Southpaw Strikeout Prop – Payton Tolle

Tolle's 7+ strikeouts, Yes is 56% (56¢), No 45¢. Nine strikeouts per start against this lineup, a 24-strikeout September in 17 2/3 innings, and a Yankees order missing its best hitter all argue the number is light for the stuff. What holds it at 56 is that a rookie in his first postseason start at Yankee Stadium is exactly the pitcher a manager pulls at 85 pitches, and seven strikeouts usually needs six innings.

$100 at 56¢ buys roughly 179 shares and returns $78.57 if he reaches seven. The No is a five-inning start, not a bad one, and that is a plausible Chad Tracy decision in a best-of-three with a fresh bullpen. Fees and spread cost a little off the top as always.

• If Payton Tolle records 7+ strikeouts: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $78.57 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he falls short: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Call it a 1.79x multiple where the matchup says Yes and the calendar says be careful; his 6+ tier is the natural comparison if you want the same read with a shorter innings requirement.

Best Strikeout Prop – Cam Schlittler (Editor's Pick)

Schlittler's 8+ strikeouts, Yes at 47% (47¢) is the Editor's Pick and the widest price-versus-projection gap on the board. He averaged better than a strikeout per inning, punched out 38 in 30 September innings, and the hitters on Boston's active roster have struck out 19 times in 71 plate appearances against him. Eight is a lot, but he did 12 in eight innings against this team in this round twelve months ago, and Yankees manager Aaron Boone let him work deep that night.

$100 at 47¢ is about 213 shares and $112.77 in profit on a Yes. The No is straightforward: an efficient outing with too much weak contact, or a leash cut at six innings if the Yankees are up big. His last regular-season start was three innings and 70 pitches on Sept. 24, so he arrives rested rather than stretched. Fees keep the realized net just under the headline.

• If Cam Schlittler records 8+ strikeouts: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $112.77 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he falls short: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

A 2.13x multiple on the best strikeout pitcher in the American League against the lineup he owns is the position on this page with the clearest reason to exist, with the innings count as the only thing between it and a Yes.

NL Wild Card Game 1: Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Prediction

The late game at Petco Park is a rematch of last year's series with home field flipped. Padres starter Michael King went 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA and 159 strikeouts over 185 innings, a career high in workload, and finished with a 2.53 ERA over his last seven starts. Matthew Boyd, 35, posted a 3.91 ERA with 96 strikeouts in 126 2/3 innings across 22 starts and carries a 1.66 postseason ERA in 21 2/3 career innings.

Neither is a bat-missing monster: King sat around 7.7 K/9 and Boyd under seven, which is why their thresholds are 5+ and 4+ rather than the seven-plus tiers on the Yankee Stadium board. The Cubs bring the best run-scoring offense in baseball into a park that suppresses runs, and the total has already dropped from 7.5 to 7.

Best Home Strikeout Prop – Michael King

King's 5+ strikeouts, Yes is a true coin flip at 50% (50¢), No 51¢. Five strikeouts is right at his per-start average, so the market has him at his season median and is not pricing in a postseason bump either way. That is fair. San Diego's bullpen was the strength of its September, which cuts both ways: Mike Shildt can afford to pull King at 90 pitches, and he has been willing to do it.

A $100 position at 50¢ buys 200 shares and doubles to $100 in profit on a Yes. The No path is a Cubs lineup that puts the ball in play and a sixth inning King never sees. Polymarket's taker fee means the doubled money is a little less than doubled once the position is filled.

• If Michael King records 5+ strikeouts: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $100.00 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he falls short: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

A clean 2.00x multiple on a pitcher priced at his own average, which makes it a read on King's leash rather than on his stuff.

Best Veteran Strikeout Prop – Matthew Boyd

Boyd's 4+ strikeouts, Yes trades at 49% (49¢), with the No at 52¢. His 96 strikeouts in 126 2/3 innings put him a hair under seven per nine, and his two starts against San Diego this year produced four and five innings with two strikeouts in the June outing. Last October, Cubs skipper Craig Counsell pulled him after 4 1/3 innings in this exact spot. Four strikeouts reads slightly rich at 49.

This is where the No side deserves its own paragraph. At 52¢, Boyd's No returns roughly $92.31 on $100 if he finishes with three or fewer strikeouts, and the case is specific: a contact-oriented lefty, a short postseason leash he has already lived through once, and a Padres lineup that has hit him. It is the cheap side of a coin flip, not a lock, and holding both sides of the same contract does not remove the risk of either.

• If Matthew Boyd records 4+ strikeouts: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $104.08 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he falls short: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

A 2.04x multiple on the Yes, but the shape favors the No: the innings history says four strikeouts requires a longer start than Boyd has been given in October.

Polymarket has more strikeout and pitcher prop markets live beyond the eight contracts above, including every other threshold on each of these pitchers' ladders and Game 2 boards as starters are announced.

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How to Trade MLB Strikeout Predictions on Polymarket

Ready to take a position on tonight's MLB strikeout predictions? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.

• Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
• Check the Strikeouts tab on each game's player props board to compare thresholds for the same pitcher before taking a position, and monitor the prediction markets hub for movement as lineups post.

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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.

MLB Strikeout Predictions Today: What's Moving the Market

The theme of this board is innings, not stuff. Six of the eight arms are elite or near-elite strikeout pitchers, and yet nothing trades above 62¢, because Polymarket traders have priced October leashes into every threshold. Two announced bullpen games and one "opener" who happens to be a 221-strikeout All-Star make that unavoidable.

The prices that look soft against season-long rates are Schlittler's 8+ at 47¢ and Tolle's 7+ at 56¢, both of which are below what their per-start strikeout averages against these specific opponents would suggest. Luzardo's 4+ at 45¢ is soft on talent and fair on role, and it is the one where a single pregame quote about his pitch count could move the contract 15 points in either direction.

The prices that reflect genuine uncertainty rather than mispricing are the two 2+ contracts in Houston, where the whole question is whether an opener gets six or nine outs. King at 50¢ and Boyd at 49¢ sit at their own averages and are pure leash reads.

Lineup cards, weather, and late scratches can reprice this board faster than almost any other, so keep a prediction market app handy through the afternoon.

MLB Predictions: Final Thoughts

This is an unusual strikeout board: eight contracts between 45¢ and 62¢, payout multiples from 1.61x to 2.22x, and not a single piece of chalk on it. The repeating theme is that every manager in the Wild Card round has a reason to take the ball early, and the market knows it.

Treat each contract as its own all-or-nothing position rather than a slate. Two of these at 50¢ landing and two missing is a net loss after fees, so size each one on its own merits and remember that a No on any of them costs the full stake. Schlittler's 8+ at 47¢ is the pick with the strongest case; Boyd's No at 52¢ is the quietest good shape on the page.

MLB Predictions and Strikeout Bets: Polymarket Promo Code FAQs

What is the Polymarket promo code for MLB strikeout markets?

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What are the best strikeout bets on Polymarket for Wild Card Game 1?

Cam Schlittler's 8+ strikeouts, Yes at 47¢ is the Editor's Pick, with Payton Tolle's 7+ at 56¢ the other price that reads light against the pitcher's record versus this opponent. Matthew Boyd's No at 52¢ is the most interesting No-side contract on the board.

Which pitcher carries the highest implied probability on the strikeout board?

AJ Blubaugh's 2+ strikeouts, Yes at 62% (62¢) is the shortest price on the board, followed by Hagen Smith's 2+ at 60% (60¢). Both are openers in bullpen games, so the low threshold reflects an expected two- to three-inning stint.

How do Polymarket strikeout contracts work and resolve?

Each contract asks whether a named pitcher records at least the stated number of strikeouts in that game. Yes shares pay $1.00 each if he does and $0 if he does not. Only strikeouts credited to that pitcher in the official box score count; strikeouts by relievers in the same game do not.

What happens if a listed starter is scratched?

Handling of a scratched or unused pitcher depends on the specific market rules, which were not visible on the props board at publication. Check the market rules section on each contract's Polymarket page before taking a position, especially on the Luzardo, Smith, and Blubaugh contracts where usage is uncertain.

Why are these strikeout contracts priced near 50¢ instead of 90¢?

The thresholds are set high for the elite arms (7+ and 8+) and the openers are expected to pitch only a few innings, so every contract on the board is close to a coin flip. A $100 position at 50¢ returns about $100 in profit if it lands, and the full $100 is lost if it does not. Fees and order book depth mean the net on a filled position runs a little under the headline math.

How do I claim the Polymarket promo and start trading?

Create a Polymarket account, enter the promo code ACTION during sign-up, make a deposit, and open the Strikeouts tab on any Wild Card Game 1 player props board. Eligibility and availability vary by state.

When do Wild Card Game 1 strikeout contracts settle?

Contracts settle after each game becomes official and the box score is finalized, typically within hours of the final out. Tuesday's games run from 2 p.m. ET in Atlanta through the 10 p.m. ET start in San Diego.

Why is Cam Schlittler the Editor's Pick?

Schlittler struck out 239 in 193 2/3 innings this season, punched out 27 Red Sox in 24 1/3 innings across four starts, and struck out 12 against Boston in last year's Wild Card Game 3. At 47¢, the 8+ contract pays $112.77 on a $100 position and is the widest gap between price and track record on the board.