The Polymarket promo code (ACTION) is perfect to use on ALCS Game 2 between the Guardians and Rays, and this Guardians vs Rays prediction rounds up our best MLB player props today.
- The Cleveland Guardians (85-77) grabbed a 1-0 ALCS lead with a 7-3 win in Game 1 at Tropicana Field, getting home runs from Chase DeLauter and Patrick Bailey and a three-hit night from Jose Ramirez.
- The Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) still own the best record in the American League and a fully rested rotation after sweeping the Yankees in the ALDS, but the solo homers Drew Rasmussen allowed in the sixth and seventh innings opened the door for Cleveland’s Game 1 comeback.
Here's our full picks table before we break down every trade, built around the complete board of best prediction markets for tonight's ALCS Game 2.
| ⚾ ALCS Game 2 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick 5+ Strikeouts | Yes | 61¢ | $160.74 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Freddy Peralta 4+ Strikeouts | Yes | 57¢ | $171.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jose Ramirez 2+ Total Bases | Yes | 50¢ | $195.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Junior Caminero 2+ Total Bases | Yes | 50¢ | $195.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Junior Caminero 1+ HR | Yes | 23¢ | $322.16 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jo Adell 1+ HR | Yes | 17¢ | $337.95 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jose Ramirez 1+ HR | Yes | 15¢ | $381.44 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Yandy Diaz 1+ HR | Yes | 15¢ | $344.08 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Chase DeLauter 1+ HR | Yes | 11¢ | $355.56 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ryan Vilade 1+ HR | Yes | 11¢ | $355.56 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Read our dedicated Polymarket review to learn more about how this exchange operates, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.
Best MLB Player Props Today: Guardians vs Rays Prediction
Here are our best MLB player props today for this Guardians vs Rays prediction. You can also browse the full best prediction market apps roundup or head to the MLB hub for more ALCS coverage.
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Strikeouts Prop Today – Parker Messick
| ⚾ ALCS Game 2 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick 5+ Strikeouts | Yes | 61¢ | $160.74 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Messick finished his rookie season with a 2.56 ERA and 193 strikeouts in 186 1/3 innings, the lowest ERA by a Cleveland left-hander since Cliff Lee in 2008, and he’s made the strikeout market the safest number on this whole board.
He also brings postseason strikeout form, with 11 strikeouts across his two ALDS appearances against the White Sox, and he blanked Tampa Bay over seven innings with six strikeouts in his second career start last August.
On the ticket itself, a $100 buy at a 61¢ average price works out to roughly 164 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Messick records five or more strikeouts: this ticket nets a return of $160.74.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
It's priced close to a coin flip, but the payout still returns well over half your stake in pure profit.
Strikeouts Prop Today – Freddy Peralta
| ⚾ ALCS Game 2 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta 4+ Strikeouts | Yes | 57¢ | $171.67 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Peralta started the season with the Mets before Tampa Bay acquired him at the deadline, and he went 5-2 with a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts after slotting into the Rays’ rotation behind Drew Rasmussen, including a strong ALDS Game 2 start against the Yankees in which he allowed one run over 4 2/3 innings.
Cleveland's lineup swung through plenty of pitches in the ALDS against Chicago, and Peralta's strikeout stuff plays well against a Guardians order that will see him for the first time this October.
A $100 buy at a 57¢ average price works out to roughly 175 shares on this ticket, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution.
- If Peralta records four or more strikeouts: this ticket nets a return of $171.67.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Another near coin-flip price, and the payout still covers nearly 1.7 times your money.
Total Bases Prop Today – Jose Ramirez
| ⚾ ALCS Game 2 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez 2+ Total Bases | Yes | 50¢ | $195.00 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Ramírez has been Cleveland’s best hitter all October, hitting the game-winning home run in the ALDS clincher against the White Sox and going 3-for-5 with two runs and an RBI in Game 1 of this series.
He has an RBI in four straight postseason games, tied for the longest streak in Cleveland postseason history, and a switch-hitter of his caliber should still find extra bases against a Rays pitching staff that leans on soft contact rather than swing-and-miss stuff.
A $100 buy at a 50¢ average price is an even 200 shares on this ticket, each worth $1 if the contract hits.
- If Ramirez records two or more total bases: this ticket nets a return of $195.00.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.
A true coin-flip price that still nearly doubles your money.
Total Bases Prop Today – Junior Caminero
| ⚾ ALCS Game 2 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero 2+ Total Bases | Yes | 50¢ | $195.00 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Caminero already has an RBI single on the board in this series, and the 23-year-old has established himself as one of the better young power bats in the American League this season.
He’s up against Messick, a tough lefty who shut Tampa Bay out over seven innings last August, but Caminero’s bat speed gives him a path to an extra-base hit even against one of the AL’s best rookie arms.
A $100 buy at a 50¢ average price is an even 200 shares on this ticket, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution.
- If Caminero records two or more total bases: this ticket nets a return of $195.00.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost.
Same coin-flip math as the Ramirez ticket, nearly doubling your stake.
Home Run Prop Today – Junior Caminero
| ⚾ ALCS Game 2 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero 1+ HR | Yes | 23¢ | $322.16 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Caminero carries the shortest home run price on the board tonight, and it's not close for who the market trusts most to go deep for Tampa Bay.
He's become the focal point of a Rays lineup that added Freddy Peralta to its pitching staff at the deadline while leaning more and more on Caminero's power at the plate, and he already singled home a run in Game 1.
A $100 buy at a 23¢ average price works out to roughly 435 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Caminero goes deep: this ticket nets a return of $322.16.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Just over a 3.2-to-1 payout multiple, the shortest price of these home run predictions today.
Home Run Prop Today – Jo Adell
| ⚾ ALCS Game 2 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jo Adell 1+ HR | Yes | 17¢ | $337.95 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Adell arrived in Cleveland at the trade deadline after spending his entire career with the Angels, and he's slotted into the middle of a Guardians lineup that's suddenly rolling through October.
He's shown real raw power all season, and Peralta's fastball-driven approach gives a free-swinging bat like Adell's a legitimate look at an extra-base mistake.
A $100 buy at a 17¢ average price is good for roughly 588 shares on this ticket.
- If Adell connects: this ticket nets a return of $337.95.
- If not: the $100 stake is gone entirely.
Close to 3.4-to-1 on the payout, a reasonable middle-of-the-board price for one of these home run predictions today.
Home Run Prop Today – Jose Ramirez
| ⚾ ALCS Game 2 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez 1+ HR | Yes | 15¢ | $381.44 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Ramirez hit the series-clinching home run against the White Sox in the ALDS, and he's carried that form straight into the ALCS with a three-hit, two-run Game 1.
He's as complete a threat as there is in this lineup, and a Rays pitching staff that just leaned hard on Rasmussen in Game 1 doesn't want to see Ramirez locked in like this.
On the ticket, a $100 buy at a 15¢ average price is roughly 667 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution.
- If Ramirez homers: this ticket nets a return of $381.44.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Just over 3.8-to-1 on the payout multiple, and the pick we like most among tonight's longer-shot home run predictions today.
Home Run Prop Today – Yandy Diaz
| ⚾ ALCS Game 2 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz 1+ HR | Yes | 15¢ | $344.08 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Diaz is the steady professional in the middle of this Tampa Bay lineup, more known for consistent contact than light-tower power, which is exactly why this ticket pays out at better than 3.4-to-1.
He's faced Messick before, drawing a key walk off him back in April, and a hitter with his bat-to-ball skills always has a puncher's chance against any arm.
A $100 buy at a 15¢ average price comes out to roughly 667 shares on this one.
- If Diaz goes deep: this ticket nets a return of $344.08.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
A fair price for a contact-oriented bat who doesn't sell out for power every night.
Home Run Prop Today – Chase DeLauter
| ⚾ ALCS Game 2 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DeLauter 1+ HR | Yes | 11¢ | $355.56 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
DeLauter already has a Game 1 home run on his October resume, a 381-foot shot off Rasmussen that helped spark Cleveland's comeback, and the rookie has emerged as a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat down the stretch.
Peralta presents a different look than Rasmussen, which makes this more of a true longshot swing than a repeat of Monday’s home run.
On the ticket itself, a $100 buy at an 11¢ average price works out to roughly 909 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If DeLauter goes deep: this ticket nets a return of $355.56.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Better than 3.5-to-1 on the payout, the kind of risk and reward that makes a single-game prop worth a look.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Ryan Vilade
| ⚾ ALCS Game 2 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Vilade 1+ HR | Yes | 11¢ | $355.56 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Vilade has made a habit of hurting Cleveland this season, including a pair of go-ahead hits against the Guardians back in April, and he’s starting in right field and batting fifth for Tampa Bay tonight.
He doesn’t have the same raw power as Caminero or Díaz, which is why this ticket shares the longest home run price on the board tonight with DeLauter’s.
A $100 buy at an 11¢ average price also works out to roughly 909 shares on this one.
- If Vilade connects: this ticket nets a return of $355.56.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost.
Tied for the longest shot of these home run predictions today, built for a trader who wants max leverage on a single swing.
MLB Home Run Predictions Today: What's Moving the Market
Prediction markets and prices move for plenty of reasons, and Game 1 gave this board a lot to chew on. Rasmussen cruised through five shutout innings before DeLauter and Patrick Bailey both went deep late in Game 1, and Cleveland’s Adell and Ramírez now sit right behind Caminero on the home run board.
Caminero's 23¢ price is still the shortest on the Rays side, a reflection of how central he's become to Tampa Bay's lineup since the trade deadline additions reshaped their rotation around him and Freddy Peralta.
The two strikeout tickets, Messick at 61¢ and Peralta at 57¢, are priced close together because both pitchers enter with strong regular-season numbers and real head-to-head history against tonight's lineup.
Overall, these home run predictions today line up with each hitter's actual role in October rather than any single storyline driving the whole board, and that balance is what makes this one of the best MLB player props today across the full ALCS slate.
Best Home Run Bets Today: How to Trade on Polymarket
Ready to take a position on tonight's board? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Sign up through one of our links and enter Polymarket promo code ACTION to get started!
- Deposit at least $10 to unlock the bonus.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract on tonight’s board.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Final Thoughts: Best Home Run Bets Today for Guardians vs Rays Prediction
A 1-0 series lead hasn't changed much about how tight this ALCS Game 2 board looks, with Messick and Peralta both drawing close to coin-flip strikeout prices and the home run market spread across both lineups.
Caminero and Adell sit at the top of the home run board, with Ramírez right behind as the engine of Cleveland’s lineup, while longer shots like DeLauter and Vilade offer real leverage for traders chasing a bigger multiple.
That's our full Guardians vs Rays prediction and every one of the best MLB player props today we'd make on the Polymarket board for ALCS Game 2. For more on how these markets work, the full prediction markets hub covers every other sport still in season.
Guardians vs Rays Prediction FAQs
What are the best MLB player props today for Guardians vs Rays? Our top plays lean on Parker Messick’s and Freddy Peralta’s strikeout numbers, plus home run markets on Junior Caminero, the shortest-priced hitter on tonight’s board, and José Ramírez.
What is the best home run prop today for ALCS Game 2? Junior Caminero carries the shortest home run price on the board at 23 cents, with Jo Adell the shortest-priced Cleveland hitter at 17 cents.
Who are the probable starting pitchers for ALCS Game 2? Parker Messick gets the ball for the Guardians and Freddy Peralta starts for the Rays**. Peralta also started Game 2 of the ALDS, while Messick started Game 1 and pitched in relief in Game 4.
How do Polymarket home run and strikeout contracts work? Each contract resolves Yes if the named outcome happens in that specific game, such as a player hitting a home run or a pitcher reaching his strikeout total, and No if it doesn't. Shares bought at a given price pay out $1 each if the contract resolves in your favor, and nothing if it doesn't.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code? Create a Polymarket account, enter the promo code during sign-up, and deposit at least $10 to unlock your trading bonus.
When does tonight's ALCS Game 2 market resolve? Every contract on this board resolves once the game is final, based on official MLB box score data from the matchup.
Are there more MLB prediction markets to trade tonight? Yes. Beyond these picks, Polymarket has moneyline, spread, and additional prop markets live for ALCS Game 2, plus markets across other sports in season right now.
