San Francisco is 5-0 and Brock Purdy has been electric in their undefeated run. The market caught up this week, and now both Polymarket and Kalshi have him sitting at the top of the NFL futures market, priced right around 30 cents on the dollar – comfortably ahead of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and the rest of the field.

A 5-0 start alone doesn't win the award, but his ball security and efficiency are making a strong case for the ex-Mr. Irrelevant. If you're looking to get involved in the MVP race, check out one of our NFL prediction market promos to load up some bonuses to trade with.

We have $80 in prediction market bonuses up for grabs today, with the Polymarket promo codeACTION giving you $25 from a $10 deposit, and the Kalshi promo codeACTION55 able to be used to claim $55 in bonuses after $25 worth of trade.

What are Brock Purdy’s MVP Prices?

A Yes contract priced at 28 cents with a prediction marker means traders collectively think there’s roughly a 28% chance that outcome happens. If it happens, that contract settles at $1. If it doesn’t, it settles at zero. Read more on how these markets actually function on the prediction markets hub.

Purdy has only gone to the top of this race this week. He trailed Allen by a cent on Kalshi after Week 3 and only drew level on Polymarket after Week 4. Allen takes on the Rams on Monday Night Football, so the market could shift again.

Can Brock Purdy win the MVP award?

We have seen many a QB MVP race, and across the years we have learned one thing, passer rating matters to voters. Purdy’s sitting at 119.3 through five games, leading the NFL. This makes him a prolific passer this season; nobody else is coming close, with Jared Goff the next closest at 111.3.

Here's how he compares with the other contenders in this MVP market:

Allen and Mahomes have played one fewer game than the other three, worth keeping in mind on the cumulative columns.

Purdy doesn't lead this group in yards, given he's thrown the fewest passes per game of anyone on this list. But among these five, he tops the field in rating and in touchdown passes, ties Mahomes for fewest interceptions, and trails only Burrow in completion rate and Allen in yards per attempt.

Purdy has been the most efficient passer in this group; the only thing missing is pure volume, but that hasn't stopped the 49ers from going 5-0.Add in the lowest sack total of any regular starter in the league (three), hats off to the 49ers offensive line, and you get a quarterback taking fewer risks, getting time in the pocket, and an offense that still ranks among the league's highest-scoring.

This sheer offensive production sets Purdy in perfect stead to make a run for the MVP, and it’s not a new one. Voters have rewarded it before when the win total backs it up. San Francisco’s win total currently backs it up as well as anyone’s in the league. Read our full context on where the 49ers and everyone else stand on the NFL hub. Can Brock Purdy Continue

A few things will decide whether he’s still on top in February:

• Volume should rise. Purdy’s workload is light relative to the rest of the field right now. If San Francisco throws more as the schedule toughens, his raw numbers have real room to grow from an already-elite rate.
• Health is the swing variable. Efficiency arguments only matter if he's on the field for all 17 games..
• Team success has to hold. Voters lean on wins. A 49ers team near the top of the NFC West all season keeps Purdy’s name in the room even if his per-game numbers regress some.
• Allen and Mahomes trail, but they're not out. Both are former MVPs with track records of finishing strong. Allen sits at 20-21 cents and Mahomes at around 11 cents, but both need Purdy to slow down more than they need to speed up.

Why use your Prediction Market Bonus on the NFL MVP Markets?

As with any season-long market, anything can happen. Injuries can hit, some ill-timed picks from Prudy could lead to a losing streak, and of course the allure of an undefeated team will be inflating his price somewhat also.

We will have to wait till Week 14/15 for a true read on the MVP markets, but should make no mistake, this is still a longshot trade. Why not use the Polymarket or Kalshi bonuses to try your hand on this market, backing this longshot with house funds, instead of your own cash?

Polymarket Promo Code ACTION: A $10 deposit unlocks the $25 bonus automatically, no trade required. That’s $35 in total buying power.

At Purdy’s 28.4-cent price, that’s roughly 123 Yes contracts. A move to 40 cents values that position at about $49. A Purdy MVP win pays $1 a contract, around $123 total.

• Buying power: $35
• At Purdy’s yes price of 28.4 cents, that’s $35 / $0.284, about 123 contracts.
• If Purdy wins MVP, each contract settles at $1, for a total payout of about $123
• Against the $35 at risk, that’s a profit of about $88

Kalshi Promo Code ACTION55: The $55 bonus only lands after you place a qualifying $25 trade.

• Buying power: $55
• At Purdy’s yes price of 30 cents, that’s $55 / $0.30, about 183 contracts
• If Purdy wins MVP, each contract settles at $1, for a total payout of about $183
• Against the $55 at risk, that’s a profit of about $128

Polymarket gets you trading with less of your own money up front. Kalshi asks for more skin in the game first but nearly doubles your total buying power once the bonus lands.

Who Else can win the NFL MVP Award?

Josh Allen is well placed to give Purdy a run for his money, the Wyoming Cowboy being the frontrunner in this race three weeks ago.

Through four games, Allen has 1,039 passing yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, modest by his standard, with a 100.1 rating, nowhere close to Purdy's 119.3. He's leaned on his legs instead, with 118 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns, the most in the NFL.

The Bills are 3-1 after a 29-26 home loss to the Patriots in Week 4, a game in which Allen threw an interception on Buffalo's final drive while trailing by three. He has also fumbled twice over his last two games.

Buffalo visits the Rams and reigning MVP Matthew Stafford tonight on Monday Night Football at SoFi Stadium, with Los Angeles favored by 3.5 and the total set at 54.5. It's the same building where Allen scored six touchdowns in a loss during his MVP season two years ago, so a big night isn't impossible.

But one standout primetime game against the Rams doesn't erase a five-week gap built on the best passer rating and QBR in football. Even a strong outing from Allen likely tightens this race without flipping it.

Prediction Market Promos for the NFL MVP Markets

How to Sign Up for a Prediction Market Promo Today

1. Confirm eligibility – 18+, with a legal US residential address in a supported state.
2. Download the app.
3. Register with an email, Apple ID, or Google account.
4. Enter the promo code during sign-up – ACTION for Polymarket, ACTION55 for Kalshi.
5. Complete identity verification (name, date of birth, address, SSN).
6. Fund your account – $10 for Polymarket’s automatic bonus, or $25 placed as a trade to unlock Kalshi’s.

• 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
• Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.