Cleveland is one win away from a commanding 3-1 ALCS lead, and Friday night's Rays vs. Guardians prediction market board centers on a series that has swung entirely on pitching.
The Guardians took Game 3 on the strength of Petey Halpin's go-ahead two-run homer and a four-out save from Cade Smith, while the Rays' top three hitters have gone ice cold at the worst possible time.
Here is our full breakdown of the best home run bets today for Game 4, built around six Polymarket tickets worth trading before first pitch at Progressive Field.
| ⚾ ALCS Game 4 Prediction | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | HR Yes (17¢) | Trade it on Polymarket! | $488.24 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jo Adell | HR Yes (14¢) | Trade it on Polymarket! | $614.29 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jose Ramirez | HR Yes (13¢) | Trade it on Polymarket! | $669.23 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jonathan Aranda | HR Yes (12¢) | Trade it on Polymarket! | $733.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Yandy Diaz | HR Yes (11¢) | Trade it on Polymarket! | $809.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Chase DeLauter | HR Yes (10¢) | Trade it on Polymarket! | $900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Rays vs. Guardians Prediction: Our Top Polymarket Picks for ALCS Game 4
Every pick below is a real trade we'd make after redeeming the Polymarket promo code (ACTION), part of our best MLB home run predictions today for Game 4 of the ALCS.
Cleveland leads this series 2-1 after Thursday's 3-2 Game 3 win, and these HR props move fast once Cleveland's bullpen game plan firms up, so we're building this around the numbers as they stand right now.
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Best Home Run Prop Today – Junior Caminero
| ⚾ ALCS Game 4 Prediction | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | HR Yes (17¢) | Trade it now on Polymarket! | $488.24 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Caminero led baseball with 42 home runs this season, but he hasn't gone deep this postseason and is in the middle of a brutal 5-for-34 series alongside Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda, as Cleveland's pitching staff shuts down the top of Tampa Bay's order.
He struck out in all four at-bats in Game 3, which is exactly why the market still has him as the shortest-priced Rays bat on this board rather than a true long shot.
On the ticket itself, a $100 buy at a 17¢ average price works out to roughly 588 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Caminero goes deep, this ticket nets a $488.24 profit.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
A near-5-to-1 payout for a slugger this talented is the kind of risk/reward that's worth a look even in a cold spell.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Jo Adell
| ⚾ ALCS Game 4 Prediction | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jo Adell | HR Yes (14¢) | Trade it now on Polymarket! | $614.29 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Adell has been a legitimate power threat for Cleveland all year, and a likely bullpen game from the Guardians means the Rays could lean on matchup relievers rather than a true starter for length tonight, which cuts both ways for Cleveland's lineup.
A $100 buy at a 14¢ average price is good for roughly 714 shares on this ticket.
- If Adell connects, this ticket nets a $614.29 profit.
- If not: the $100 stake is gone entirely.
Better than 6-to-1 on the payout, this is one of the cleaner power plays on Cleveland's side of the board.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Jose Ramirez
| ⚾ ALCS Game 4 Prediction | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez | HR Yes (13¢) | Trade it now on Polymarket! | $669.23 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
This is the trade we're making on Cleveland's side of the board tonight.
Ramirez is hitting .333 through seven playoff games with two home runs already, and he's gone 6-for-12 against the Rays specifically in this series, the kind of recent form that makes a 13¢ price feel light for a hitter this locked in.
A $100 buy at a 13¢ average price works out to roughly 769 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution.
- If Ramirez homers: this ticket nets a profit of $669.23.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
The payout is nearly 6.7-to-1, and the form suggests this price should probably be shorter.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Jonathan Aranda
| ⚾ ALCS Game 4 Prediction | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda | HR Yes (12¢) | Trade it now on Polymarket! | $733.33 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Aranda has no hits in this series through three games, and the market has priced that cold stretch directly into this number rather than treating it as a throwaway long shot.
A $100 buy at a 12¢ average price buys roughly 833 shares on this ticket.
- If Aranda goes deep, this ticket nets a $733.33 profit.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
A true bounce-back ticket, built for a trader who thinks Tampa Bay's slump ends tonight rather than Saturday.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Yandy Diaz
| ⚾ ALCS Game 4 Prediction | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz | HR Yes (11¢) | Trade it now on Polymarket! | $809.09 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Diaz rounds out the trio of Rays bats that manager Kevin Cash pointed to after Game 3, and like Caminero and Aranda, the raw talent is real even if the series line hasn't shown it yet.
A $100 buy at an 11¢ average price is roughly 909 shares on this one.
- If Diaz connects, this ticket nets a $809.09 profit.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
Just under 8.1-to-1, this is the deepest Rays long shot on the board tonight.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Chase DeLauter
| ⚾ ALCS Game 4 Prediction | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DeLauter | HR Yes (10¢) | Trade it now on Polymarket! | $900.00 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
DeLauter is the deepest shot on Cleveland's side of this board, priced as a true long shot behind Ramirez and Adell in the pecking order.
A $100 buy at a 10¢ average price is a clean 1,000 shares, each worth $1 if the contract hits.
- If DeLauter homers: this ticket nets a profit of $900.00.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
This one offers a 9-to-1 payout multiple, built for maximum leverage rather than the safer favorites above.
Rays vs. Guardians Moneyline
Before the home run board, here's where this Rays vs. Guardians prediction stands on the base game line for Game 4.
Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline
Polymarket prices Tampa Bay at 51% to win outright, a slim edge built on Nick Martinez's track record against this exact opponent.
Cleveland Guardians Moneyline
Cleveland is priced at 50% to win outright, with home-field advantage and a 2-1 series lead working in the Guardians' favor.
Run Line and Total for Rays vs. Guardians
This is essentially a coin-flip game by both the moneyline and the run total, with books expecting a bullpen-driven, low-scoring grind.
Rays vs. Guardians Run Line
Tampa Bay -1.5 runs is priced at 38% Yes, while Cleveland +1.5 runs is at 62% Yes, reflecting how tight most sportsbooks have this series swing game.
Rays vs. Guardians Total
The total sits at 6.5 runs, priced at 53% Yes on the Over against 47% Yes on the Under, a number that fits two bullpens that have combined to allow well under three runs a game this series.
Full Home Run Probability Board
Here's the complete home run board for Game 4, sorted from the shortest price down to the deepest long shot.
- Junior Caminero (TB Rays, HR Yes: 17¢): 42 regular-season homers but still hunting his first of the postseason.
- Jo Adell (CLE Guardians, HR Yes: 14¢): a legitimate power bat even against a Tampa Bay bullpen game.
- Jose Ramirez (CLE Guardians, HR Yes: 13¢): hitting .333 with two homers in the playoffs, including 6-for-12 in this series.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB Rays, HR Yes: 12¢): 0-for-10 in the series and priced as a bounce-back long shot.
- Yandy Diaz (TB Rays, HR Yes: 11¢): part of Tampa Bay's 5-for-34 trio alongside Caminero and Aranda.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE Guardians, HR Yes: 10¢): the deepest shot on Cleveland's side of the board.
What's Moving the Rays vs. Guardians Market
Prediction markets move for a reason, and this one is almost entirely about pitching. Cleveland's bullpen has allowed just 2.7 runs per game in this ALCS, and Cade Smith's four-out save on Thursday is exactly why the Guardians' moneyline has held up despite a quieter offensive night.
On the other side, Tampa Bay's top three hitters, Caminero, Diaz, and Aranda, are 5-for-34 this series with one home run, which is why all three carry long-shot home run prices tonight despite their power profiles.
Nick Martinez is the one factor keeping the Rays competitive on the board: he beat Cleveland twice in the regular season, throwing 13 scoreless innings and holding the Guardians to a .159 batting average, a track record the market hasn't fully forgotten even with Tampa Bay down 2-1.
Weather is also a live variable. Rain is in the Cleveland forecast, and Thursday's Game 3 was already moved up several hours, so a push to Saturday remains possible heading into first pitch.
Use Polymarket Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade Rays vs. Guardians
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Rays vs. Guardians Prediction: Final Thoughts
Cleveland is one win from a commanding series lead, but the board tells a more even story than the 2-1 score does: a near pick'em moneyline, a tight run total, and a home run board that's split right down the middle between a red-hot Jose Ramirez and three cold Rays bats looking for a spark.
If Tampa Bay's top three hitters wake up, this series heads back to St. Petersburg. If Cleveland's bullpen holds again, the Guardians could be one win from the World Series by Saturday. For more on how these markets work, Action Network's beginner's guide to Polymarket is a good starting point, and the full prediction markets hub covers every other sport in season right now.
Rays vs. Guardians Prediction FAQs
What is the Polymarket promo code for Rays vs. Guardians ALCS Game 4?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION. New users who sign up with it can deposit $10 and get a $25 trading bonus to use on tonight's ALCS Game 4 markets.
What are today's best MLB odds for Rays vs. Guardians Game 4?
Polymarket prices this one close to a coin flip, with Tampa Bay at 51% to win outright and Cleveland at 50%, reflecting the Guardians' home-field edge against Nick Martinez's strong track record versus this opponent.
Who is favored to hit a home run in Rays vs. Guardians Game 4?
Junior Caminero has the shortest home run price on the board at 17¢, even though he's still searching for his first postseason homer. Jose Ramirez is the hottest bat on the board at 13¢.
What is the best home run prop today for Rays vs. Guardians?
Our top picks are Junior Caminero and Jo Adell, the two shortest-priced tickets on tonight's home run board.
Why are Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Diaz priced as long shots tonight?
Both hitters are part of a Tampa Bay trio that's gone 5-for-34 with one home run this series, with Aranda 0-for-10, which is why the market has priced them as bounce-back long shots rather than favorites.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract resolves Yes if the named player hits at least one home run in Game 4, and No if they don't. Shares bought at a given price pay out $1 each if the contract resolves in your favor, and nothing if it doesn't.
When does tonight's ALCS Game 4 market resolve?
The contract resolves once Game 4 is final, based on official MLB box score data. Rain is in the Cleveland forecast, so a postponement to Saturday remains possible.
Are there more Rays vs. Guardians markets to trade tonight?
Yes. Beyond the home run props, Polymarket has moneyline, run line, and total markets live for Game 4, plus markets across the rest of the postseason, including the Brewers' spot in the World Series.
