The Bronx hosts an ALDS elimination game tonight, and this Rays vs. Yankees prediction rounds up our best MLB player props today straight from the live Kalshi board. Redeem the Kalshi promo code ACTION2000 before first pitch, since every pick below is a real trade we'd make with that bonus already applied.
Tampa Bay arrives up 2-0 in the series and can close it out with a win tonight, punching a ticket to the ALCS, while New York plays for its season at Yankee Stadium behind ace Max Fried against a Tampa Bay lineup that Junior Caminero leads, with Ben Rice anchoring the Yankees' own order. You can follow every other storyline from tonight's slate on our MLB page, check the full MLB odds board, or pull up our complete Rays vs. Yankees game page for broadcast info and line movement.
Beyond tonight's board, the wider prediction markets world has plenty of value worth comparing: the best prediction market promos and the best prediction market apps can help you shop platforms, and our Kalshi review breaks down exactly how this exchange works if you're new to it.
Here is our full picks table before we break down every market, the moneyline, the total, and the top home run and player prop picks on the board tonight.
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Market | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB vs NYY (8:00 PM ET) | New York Yankees Moneyline | Yes (61¢) | $63.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| TB vs NYY (8:00 PM ET) | Max Fried Under 5 Strikeouts | No (55¢) | $81.82 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| TB vs NYY (8:00 PM ET) | Under 7.5 Total Runs | No (54¢) | $85.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| TB vs NYY (8:00 PM ET) | Ben Rice 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs | Yes (54¢) | $85.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| TB vs NYY (8:00 PM ET) | Junior Caminero | HR Yes (18¢) | $455.56 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Best MLB Player Props Today for Rays vs Yankees: ALDS Game 3
Every pick below is a real trade we'd make after redeeming Kalshi promo code ACTION2000, part of our best MLB player props and home run predictions today for this winner-take-all swing in the series.
Use Kalshi promo code ACTION2000 and Get up to $2000 Bonus!
Best MLB Moneyline Pick Today – New York Yankees
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Market | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB vs NYY (8:00 PM ET) | New York Yankees Moneyline | Yes (61¢) | $63.93 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Tampa Bay needs just one more win to close out this series and advance to the ALCS, but New York gets to make its stand at home with Max Fried on the mound, and the market still likes the Yankees.
Fried has owned this specific opponent for years, and he carried a 2.80 ERA across 112.2 innings in the 2026 regular season into October. Tampa Bay counters with Nick Martinez, a workhorse who logged a 3.10 ERA over 180 innings and 31 starts this year, but who doesn't miss bats the way Fried does.
A $100 buy at the 61¢ Yes price works out to roughly 164 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution.
- If the Yankees win Game 3: this ticket nets a profit of $63.93.
- If they don't: the full $100 stake is a total loss.
It's the shortest price on the board tonight, but it still pays back nearly two-thirds of your stake in pure profit, with a desperate home team and a true ace on the mound.
Best MLB Pitching Prop Today – Max Fried Under 5 Strikeouts
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Market | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB vs NYY (8:00 PM ET) | Max Fried Under 5 Strikeouts | No (55¢) | $81.82 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Fried is pitching on an elimination stage, but he's a command-over-swing-and-miss lefty, and his strikeout totals have swung widely start to start throughout 2026 rather than trending toward big punch-out nights.
Tampa Bay's lineup is also one of the more contact-oriented groups in the league; hitters like Caminero and Yandy Diaz put the ball in play rather than chase, which works against a pitcher trying to rack up a high strikeout total in a short outing.
A $100 buy at 55¢ works out to roughly 182 shares.
- If Fried finishes with four or fewer strikeouts: this ticket nets a profit of $81.82.
- If he reaches five or more: the full $100 stake is a total loss.
Close to a coin flip, but the payout still returns more than 80 cents in profit for every dollar you risk.
Best MLB Total Runs Prop Today – Under 7.5
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Market | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB vs NYY (8:00 PM ET) | Under 7.5 Total Runs | No (54¢) | $85.19 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Two of the better starting pitchers on either team have used all their series and take the mound tonight. Both Fried and Martinez have built their reputations on limiting damage rather than racking up strikeouts, which tends to keep these matchups lower-scoring even in October.
Both bullpens have also had the full week to rest, since neither team has needed extra innings yet this series, giving each manager more freedom to turn to his best relief arms earlier if the score stays close.
A $100 buy at 54¢ works out to roughly 185 shares.
- If the game finishes with 7 or fewer total runs: this ticket nets a profit of $85.19.
- If it finishes with 8 or more: the full $100 stake is a total loss.
Another near coin-flip number, with the payout returning nearly as much profit as you risked.
Best MLB Player Props Today – Ben Rice 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Market | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB vs NYY (8:00 PM ET) | Ben Rice 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs | Yes (54¢) | $85.19 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
Rice put together one of the biggest breakout seasons in baseball in 2026; he finished the regular season among the American League's home run leaders and earned a spot in that summer's Home Run Derby field alongside Caminero.
He sits in the heart of New York's order and only needs to combine two total hits, runs, or RBIs tonight to cash this ticket, a low bar for a hitter who's produced at an All-Star level all year.
A $100 buy at the 54¢ Yes price works out to roughly 185 shares.
- If Rice reaches 2+ combined hits, runs, and RBIs: this ticket nets a profit of $85.19.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is a total loss.
A near coin-flip price on a hitter the Yankees trust to produce, with a payout that nearly doubles your stake.
Best Home Run Bets Today – Junior Caminero
| ⚾ Game (Start) | 🏷️ Market | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB vs NYY (8:00 PM ET) | Junior Caminero | HR Yes (18¢) | $455.56 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
This is our top home run prediction today for Game 3. Caminero put together arguably the most dangerous power-hitting season in the American League in 2026, climbing into the MVP conversation on a year that also landed him in the Home Run Derby.
He's a right-handed bat squaring off with a left-handed Fried, a matchup that's produced plenty of loud contact between these two clubs in the past, even in starts where Fried otherwise kept Tampa Bay's lineup quiet.
A $100 buy at the 18¢ Yes price works out to roughly 556 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Caminero goes deep: this ticket nets a profit of $455.56.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is a total loss.
More than 5-to-1 on the payout multiple, this is the deepest longshot on tonight's board and the headline home run prediction today for Rays vs Yankees.
Today's MLB Odds: What's Moving the Market
Prediction markets move prices for several reasons. New York's 61% price on the moneyline leans almost entirely on Max Fried's track record against this specific opponent, plus the desperation of an elimination game at home.
The unders on both the strikeout prop and the total runs line point to the same read on this game: two contact-managing starters who keep the ball in the park more than they rack up strikeouts, pitching in front of two fully rested bullpens, since neither team has needed extra innings yet this series.
Caminero's 18% price is the longest number on the board, reflecting how hard it still is to predict a single home run swing, even from one of the sport's best power bats, against a pitcher who owns Tampa Bay more often than not.
Use Kalshi Promo Code ACTION2000 to Trade Rays vs Yankees Game 3
Ready to take a position on tonight's elimination game? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Check the full MLB odds board and the best prediction market apps for live order book movement.
- Follow the live Game 3 market directly on Kalshi as both teams finalize lineups, and the lines move.
- When you're ready, sign up with the Kalshi promo code ACTION2000 to get up to $2,000 in bonus value and get started.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Final Thoughts: Rays vs Yankees Prediction
Tampa Bay arrives with a chance to close out the series and reach the ALCS, while New York fights for its season in the Bronx behind a pitcher who has historically given the Rays fits. The board reflects that split: Fried gives the Yankees the shortest price of the night, the pitching matchup points both the strikeout and total runs markets toward the under, and Caminero's longshot home run prop offers the clearest leverage play if Tampa Bay's best bat connects.
Rays vs Yankees Prediction FAQs
Who wins Rays vs Yankees Game 3 tonight?
The Kalshi board favors the Yankees at 61% to win Game 3 outright, largely because of Max Fried's career-long dominance over Tampa Bay.
What are the best MLB player props for this game?
Our top plays lean on Ben Rice's combined hits, runs, and RBIs floor and Junior Caminero's home run prop, with the pitching matchup also shaping the strikeout and total runs markets.
What is the best home run prop today?
Junior Caminero's HR Yes ticket at 18¢ is our top home run prediction today, offering more than 5-to-1 on the payout against a Yankees staff that still has to get him out four times.
How do I use Kalshi promo code ACTION2000?
Create an account, and new users who sign up with code ACTION2000 can unlock up to $2,000 in bonus value to use on tonight's Game 3 markets.
What time does Rays vs Yankees Game 3 start?
First pitch goes off at 8:00 PM ET tonight, and TBS and truTV carry the game nationally.
How do Kalshi event contracts work?
Each contract resolves Yes or No based on the named outcome; each share you buy at a given price pays out $1 if the contract resolves in your favor, and pays out nothing if it doesn't.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
