The Polymarket promo code (ACTION) is perfect to use on tonight's win-or-go-home ALDS Game 4, and this Guardians vs White Sox prediction rounds up our best MLB player props today and the best home run bets today for this matchup.
- The White Sox (84-78, No. 6 seed) are one win from their first ALCS appearance since 2005, but saw a potential sweep slip away after dropping Game 3 9-3 at home on Wednesday.
- The Guardians (85-77, No. 2 seed and three-time reigning AL Central champs) stayed alive with that Game 3 win behind Jo Adell and Jose Ramirez, forcing a win-or-go-home Game 4 back in Chicago.
Here's our full breakdown of the best prediction markets for tonight's board, built around nine Polymarket tickets for this Guardians vs White Sox Game 4.
| ⚾ ALDS Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami (CWS) HR Yes | Yes | 19¢ | $460.19 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Miguel Vargas (CWS) HR Yes | Yes | 17¢ | $508.10 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Colson Montgomery (CWS) HR Yes | Yes | 16¢ | $536.05 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jo Adell (CLE) HR Yes | Yes | 15¢ | $567.29 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) HR Yes | Yes | 14¢ | $602.43 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Chase DeLauter (CLE) HR Yes | Yes | 12¢ | $687.78 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Angel Martinez (CLE) HR Yes | Yes | 9¢ | $796.12 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Hagen Smith (CWS) Over 1.5 Strikeouts | Yes | 68¢ | $144.71 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Parker Messick (CLE) Over 5.5 Strikeouts | Yes | 64¢ | $153.44 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Read our dedicated Polymarket review to learn more about how this exchange operates, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.
Best MLB Player Props Today for Guardians vs White Sox Prediction
Every pick below is a real trade we'd make after redeeming the Polymarket promo code, part of our best MLB player props today for this win-or-go-home Game 4. For more on the full slate, check out the best prediction market apps and our MLB hub for additional coverage.
Use Polymarket promo code ACTION and Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Best Home Run Prop Today – Munetaka Murakami
| ⚾ ALDS Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami (CWS) HR Yes | Yes | 19¢ | $460.19 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Murakami already delivered in this series, hitting the two-run homer that broke Game 1 open in Cleveland, and the rookie slugger remains the shortest price on this Home Run board.
The White Sox are expected to lean on another bullpen game tonight, which should keep Murakami's spot in the order protected deep into the game rather than facing a single dominant starter all four at-bats.
At a 22¢ average price, a $100 buy works out to roughly 455 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution.
- If Murakami goes deep: this ticket nets a Return of $460.19.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
About a 4.6-to-1 payout multiple, and the safest swing on this Home Run board.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Miguel Vargas
| ⚾ ALDS Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Vargas (CWS) HR Yes | Yes | 17¢ | $508.10 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Vargas has been a steady part of this deep White Sox lineup all October, and he's shown he can do damage against Cleveland's bullpen arms in this series already.
With Chicago needing just one more win to close this out, expect the same aggressive lineup construction that's carried the Sox to a 2-1 series lead.
At a 20¢ average price, a $100 buy is good for roughly 500 shares on this ticket.
- If Vargas connects: this ticket nets a Return of $508.10.
- If not: the $100 stake is gone entirely.
Just over a 5-to-1 payout multiple here.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Colson Montgomery
| ⚾ ALDS Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colson Montgomery (CWS) HR Yes | Yes | 16¢ | $536.05 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Montgomery was the White Sox's home run leader during the regular season, and he already added an RBI double in Game 1 of this series.
Facing a Guardians pitching staff that's been forced to piece together bullpen innings all series, Montgomery's raw power gives him a real path to the seats tonight.
At a 19¢ average price, a $100 buy is roughly 526 shares on this ticket.
- If Montgomery homers: this ticket nets a Return of $536.05.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
Better than a 5-to-1 payout multiple on this one.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Jo Adell
| ⚾ ALDS Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jo Adell (CLE) HR Yes | Yes | 15¢ | $567.29 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Adell has been the hottest bat in this series for Cleveland, with an RBI triple in Game 2 and a bases-clearing, three-run triple that flipped Game 3 in the Guardians' favor.
He's squaring up the ball as well as anyone on this board right now, and this price looks light given how locked in he's been at the plate.
At an 18¢ average price, a $100 buy works out to roughly 556 shares on this ticket.
- If Adell goes deep: this ticket nets a Return of $567.29.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
Nearly a 5.7-to-1 payout multiple, and our favorite value play on this Home Run board.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Jose Ramirez
| ⚾ ALDS Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) HR Yes | Yes | 14¢ | $602.43 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Ramirez drew the bases-loading walk that set up Adell's big Game 3 triple, and he came back later in the game with a two-run triple of his own off the Chicago bullpen.
The Guardians superstar is swinging a hot bat at exactly the right time, with his season of work against White Sox pitching giving him a real shot at going deep in an elimination spot for Cleveland.
At a 17¢ average price, a $100 buy is roughly 588 shares on this ticket.
- If Ramirez connects: this ticket nets a Return of $602.43.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
Just over a 6-to-1 payout multiple here.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Chase DeLauter
| ⚾ ALDS Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DeLauter (CLE) HR Yes | Yes | 12¢ | $687.78 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
DeLauter had two hits for the Guardians back in Game 2, and he's quietly been a consistent contact source in a Cleveland lineup that's otherwise struggled against this White Sox pitching staff.
He doesn't carry the same raw power as Adell or Ramirez, which is exactly why this ticket pays out closer to 7-to-1.
At a 15¢ average price, a $100 buy is roughly 667 shares on this ticket.
- If DeLauter homers: this ticket nets a Return of $687.78.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
Nearly a 6.9-to-1 payout multiple on this longer-shot swing.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Angel Martinez
| ⚾ ALDS Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angel Martinez (CLE) HR Yes | Yes | 9¢ | $796.12 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Martinez is the deepest longshot on this Home Run board, priced at just a 9% implied chance in a part-time role for Cleveland this series.
This is the kind of ticket built for a trader chasing max leverage on a single swing rather than the safer, shorter-priced names above.
At a 13¢ average price, a $100 buy is roughly 769 shares on this ticket.
- If Martinez goes deep: this ticket nets a Return of $796.12.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
Just under an 8-to-1 payout multiple, the longest shot on tonight's board.
Best Strikeouts Prop Today – Hagen Smith
| ⚾ ALDS Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hagen Smith (CWS) Over 1.5 Strikeouts | Yes | 68¢ | $144.71 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Smith has opened two of the three games in this series already, and the rookie lefty has racked up strikeouts even in his shorter outings, including a two-strikeout Game 1 in just three innings.
The low 1.5 threshold here reflects his role as an opener rather than a workhorse starter, but he should still get through enough of the Guardians' lineup to clear this number if Chicago uses him again tonight.
At a 69¢ average price, a $100 buy is roughly 145 shares on this ticket.
- If Smith strikes out 2 or more: this ticket nets a Return of $144.71.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
Nearly a 1.5-to-1 payout multiple, the safest number on the whole board.
Best Strikeouts Prop Today – Parker Messick
| ⚾ ALDS Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick (CLE) Over 5.5 Strikeouts | Yes | 64¢ | $153.44 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Messick started Game 1 of this series for Cleveland and is lined up to take the ball again in this win-or-go-home Game 4, giving him the deepest workload projection of any pitcher on this board.
He went 12-9 with a 2.56 ERA during the regular season and has shown he can miss bats against this same White Sox lineup, which supports a real shot at clearing 5.5 strikeouts across a full start.
At a 65¢ average price, a $100 buy is roughly 154 shares on this ticket.
- If Messick strikes out 6 or more: this ticket nets a Return of $153.44.
- If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.
Better than a 1.5-to-1 payout multiple on the Guardians' Game 4 starter.
Guardians vs White Sox Moneyline and Total
| Pick | Price | Return on $100 | Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians Moneyline | Yes | 52¢ | $92.31 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| White Sox Moneyline | Yes | 49¢ | $198.88 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Over 7.5 | Yes | 48¢ | $202.92 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Under 7.5 | Yes | 53¢ | $88.68 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Best Home Run Bets Today: Guardians vs White Sox
Here's the full home run predictions today board for this game, covering every player we're backing from both lineups.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (Home Run Yes: Yes 19¢): already hit one in this series and sits as the favorite on tonight's board.
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (Home Run Yes: Yes 17¢): a steady contributor to a deep White Sox lineup all October.
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (Home Run Yes: Yes 16¢): Chicago's regular season home run leader.
- Jo Adell (CLE) (Home Run Yes: Yes 15¢): the hottest bat in this series after his Game 3 go-ahead triple.
- Jose Ramirez (CLE) (Home Run Yes: Yes 14¢): swinging a hot bat with the Guardians season on the line.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (Home Run Yes: Yes 12¢): a consistent contact bat in a lineup still finding its footing.
- Angel Martinez (CLE) (Home Run Yes: Yes 9¢): the deepest longshot on tonight's Home Run board.
Strikeout Predictions for Guardians vs White Sox
- Hagen Smith (CWS) (Strikeouts Over 1.5: Yes 68¢): the low number reflects his role as a short-outing opener.
- Parker Messick (CLE) (Strikeouts Over 5.5: Yes 64¢): lined up for a full start in this win-or-go-home Game 4.
What's Moving the Market
Prediction markets move for a lot of reasons, and tonight's board reflects exactly how this series has unfolded so far.
Cleveland's offense finally broke through in Game 3, scoring nine runs on 11 hits, but none of those runs came on home runs, which is part of why Adell and Ramirez still price out as mid-teens longshots on our home run predictions today board rather than short favorites despite their big night.
That same split also shapes the best MLB player props today across this slate, since the White Sox's bullpen-game approach keeps individual power threats like Murakami and Montgomery priced as the shortest favorites even without a single home run from Cleveland in three games.
On the pitching side, Hagen Smith's low 1.5 strikeout number reflects a rookie being used as a short-outing opener rather than a true workhorse, a role that got stress-tested when Adell's bases-clearing triple came against him in Game 3.
Parker Messick's higher number and Cleveland's 52% moneyline price both lean on the same idea: a full outing from a proven starter in an elimination game typically carries more market weight than another bullpen-game approach from Chicago, even with the White Sox needing just one win to close out the series.
How to Trade on Polymarket
Ready to get in on tonight's board? Here's exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading Game 4:
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
- When you're ready, sign up with Polymarket promo code ACTION to get started!
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Final Thoughts
This Guardians vs White Sox prediction comes down to a White Sox club that's one win from its first ALCS trip since 2005, against a Guardians team that just showed it can still swing the bat when its season is on the line.
Murakami, Vargas and Montgomery headline the best home run bets today for Chicago, while Adell and Ramirez carry the Cleveland side after their Game 3 breakout, and the Smith-Messick strikeout split captures the gap between a bullpen-game opener and a proven starter in an elimination spot.
Taken together, these home run predictions today and the strikeout board give a full picture of how tonight's win-or-go-home Game 4 could swing.
For more on how these markets work, Action Network's beginner's guide to Polymarket is a good starting point, and the full prediction markets hub covers every other sport in season right now.
Guardians vs White Sox Prediction FAQs
What is the Polymarket promo code for tonight's Guardians vs White Sox prediction? The current Polymarket promo code is listed above. New users can create an account, make a qualifying deposit, and enter the code to unlock a trading bonus ahead of Game 4.
What are the best home run bets today for ALDS Game 4? Munetaka Murakami and Miguel Vargas headline the shortest prices on the board, while Jo Adell and Jose Ramirez carry the Guardians' side after their big Game 3 performances.
What are the MLB home run predictions today for Guardians vs White Sox? Murakami and Vargas sit as the shortest prices on the White Sox side, while Adell and Ramirez are the top Guardians names after their Game 3 breakout.
What are the best MLB player props today for this game? Our top plays lean on the Home Run board for both lineups, plus the Hagen Smith and Parker Messick strikeout props, which capture the contrast between an opener and a full-length starter.
Who is favored to win tonight's Guardians vs White Sox game? The market has Cleveland priced at 52% on the moneyline against Chicago at 49%, even with the White Sox holding a 2-1 series lead and the chance to close it out at home.
Why is Hagen Smith's strikeout number so low compared to Parker Messick's? Smith has been used as a short-outing opener for the White Sox all series, while Messick is lined up for a full start for Cleveland in this Game 4, which is reflected in their very different strikeout thresholds.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work? Each contract resolves Yes if the named player hits at least one home run in tonight's game, and No if they don't. Shares bought at a given price pay out $1 each if the contract resolves in your favor, and nothing if it doesn't.
When do today's prediction markets resolve? Each contract resolves once Game 4 is final, based on official MLB box score data for this matchup.
