Dancing With the Stars said goodbye to its sixth couple Tuesday night, and the Season 35 championship race is tightening into a clear two-tier field. Ezra Frech remains the runaway favorite on both Kalshi and Polymarket, but Super Bowl Night's scores shook up who's chasing him.
Who's Already Left the Ballroom — Season 35 Elimination Recap
- Week 1: Conner Leavitt & Adele Zaikman and Sarah Jane Nader & Hailey Bills, eliminated across the two-night premiere
- Week 2: Giada De Laurentiis & Alan Bersten, eliminated on Viral Hits Night
- Week 3: Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart, eliminated on Yacht Rock Night
- Week 4: Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong, eliminated on Mariah Carey Night
- Week 5: Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson, eliminated on Super Bowl Night
DWTS Season 35 Episode Recap: Super Bowl Night
Week 5 brought the show's first-ever Super Bowl Night, with the 11 remaining couples dancing to songs made famous by past Super Bowl halftime shows. Monday Night Football announcer Joe Buck joined Carrie Ann Inaba, Derek Hough and Bruno Tonioli as a fourth guest judge, and the ballroom welcomed NFL alums Donald Driver, Emmitt Smith, DeMarcus Ware and Danny Amendola for the occasion. The opening number ran through "NUEVAYoL," "Rude Boy" and "HUMBLE." before the couples took over the floor.
Ezra Frech and Jenna Dewan tied for the night's top score with matching 36 out of 40s, Frech on a salsa to "Hot in Herre" and Dewan on a paso doble to "Bad Romance." Amber Glenn turned in her best dance of the season for a 34, and a trio of couples, Maura Higgins, Harry Shum Jr. and Julia Stiles, tied just behind at 33 apiece. At the other end of the board, Guillermo Rodriguez and Witney Carson landed their third straight lowest score at 22, and after judges' marks were combined with viewer votes, the pair became the sixth couple eliminated this season.
DWTS Season 35 Kalshi Odds: Who Will Win Season 35?
| 🪩 Couple | 🎯 Winner Yes | Price | 💰 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | Ezra Frech | Winner Yes (56¢) | $78.57 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | Maura Higgins | Winner Yes (15¢) | $566.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | Harry Shum Jr. | Winner Yes (11¢) | $809.09 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | Amber Glenn | Winner Yes (9¢) | $1,011.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | Jenna Dewan | Winner Yes (6¢) | $1,566.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | Connor Wood | Winner Yes (4¢) | $2,400.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa | Julia Stiles | Winner Yes (2¢) | $4,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Jackson Olson & Emma Slater | Jackson Olson | Winner Yes (1¢) | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Tatyana Ali | Winner Yes (1¢) | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess | Tyler Cameron | Winner Yes (1¢) | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Kalshi's winner market works like any other event contract: each couple remaining in the competition has a "Yes" (they win the Mirrorball) and "No" (they don't) contract priced between 1¢ and 99¢, with the price doubling as the implied probability. A "Yes" contract settles at $1 if that couple is still standing at the season finale.
Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach (56%, Yes 56¢ / No 45¢, +1 pt)
Frech and Karagach posted a season-high 36 out of 40 for their salsa to Nelly's "Hot in Herre," tying for the top score of Super Bowl Night and pushing his cumulative total to a leaderboard-best 122. He's led the Kalshi winner market since week three and the gap is only growing.
Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas (15%, Yes 15¢ / No 86¢, +1 pt)
Higgins and Ballas scored 33 for their tango to Rihanna's "Only Girl (In the World)," good enough to hold second-favorite status even as fans continue to question whether the show is "fixed" in her favor given her consistently high marks.
Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson (10%, Yes 11¢ / No 90¢, -1 pt)
Shum and Johnson's samba to Usher's "Yeah!" earned a 33, keeping them inside the top tier on cumulative score. Kalshi traders have them narrowly ahead of Amber Glenn in the winner market despite the two sitting dead even on points.
Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov (9%, Yes 9¢ / No 92¢, -1 pt)
The Olympic figure skater's samba to "Mi Gente" scored a 34, Glenn's best mark of the season, but her winner odds slipped slightly as traders keep her just behind Shum in a crowded group chasing the top two.
Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy (5%, Yes 6¢ / No 95¢, -1 pt)
Dewan and Chmerkovskiy matched Frech's 36 out of 40 with their paso doble to Lady Gaga's "Bad Romance," the night's co-high score. Despite that and a season total just one point behind Frech's, Kalshi traders still aren't buying her as a finalist threat.
- Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (4%, +2 pts): A 25 for his samba to "Hips Don't Lie" was his lowest score since week two, but he picked up ground in the winner market anyway as the field above him thinned out.
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa (2%, +1 pt): A steady 33 for their jazz number to "Jenny From the Block" keeps Stiles safely in the middle of the pack with modest long-shot value.
- Jackson Olson & Emma Slater (<1%): Olson's 31 for his salsa to "Uptown Funk" is solid, but traders have all but written off his title odds.
- Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik (<1%): A 29 for their salsa to Kendrick Lamar's "Squabble Up" leaves Ali priced as a pure longshot.
- Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess (<1%): Cameron's 30 for his jazz routine to "The Time (Dirty Bit)" keeps him in the competition, but not in serious title contention on Kalshi.
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DWTS Season 35 Polymarket Odds: Who Will Win DWTS This Season?
| 🪩 Couple | 🎯 Winner Yes | Price | 💰 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach | Ezra Frech | Winner Yes (58¢) | $72.41 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas | Maura Higgins | Winner Yes (16¢) | $525.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov | Amber Glenn | Winner Yes (11¢) | $809.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson | Harry Shum Jr. | Winner Yes (11¢) | $809.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy | Jenna Dewan | Winner Yes (7¢) | $1,328.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | Connor Wood | Winner Yes (3¢) | $3,233.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jackson Olson & Emma Slater | Jackson Olson | Winner Yes (2¢) | $4,900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa | Julia Stiles | Winner Yes (2¢) | $4,900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Tatyana Ali | Winner Yes (1¢) | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess | Tyler Cameron | Winner Yes (1¢) | $9,900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Polymarket's winner market functions the same way: contracts for each couple trade between 1¢ and 99¢, with the price reflecting the market's live estimate of their odds to win the whole season, and "Yes" holders cash out at $1 if their pick lifts the trophy.
Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach (58%, Yes 58¢ / No 44¢, +2 pts)
Polymarket is even more bullish on Frech than Kalshi is, pushing him to 58% after his season-best salsa score. He's the only couple trading above the high-50s on either exchange.
Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas (16%, Yes 16¢ / No 88¢, -1 pt)
Higgins holds the same clear second-place spot here that she does on Kalshi, with her tango score enough to keep her comfortably ahead of the rest of the field.
Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov (11%, Yes 11¢ / No 90¢, unchanged)
Glenn's season-best samba score was enough to hold her ground on Polymarket, where she's priced dead even with Shum rather than slightly behind him.
Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson (11%, Yes 11¢ / No 90¢, -3 pts)
Shum took the steepest drop of the week on either board, losing three points of implied probability even with a strong 33. Polymarket traders may be reading his ceiling as lower than Frech's or Higgins's heading into the back half of the season.
Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy (7%, Yes 7¢ / No 94¢, +1 pt)
Dewan picked up a point of implied probability after her co-high 36, nudging her further ahead of the pack chasing the top four, though still well off finalist-grade pricing.
- Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (3%, -1 pt): His lower-scoring week cost him a bit of ground, but he's still priced ahead of most of the field.
- Jackson Olson & Emma Slater (2%, unchanged): A solid 31 held his number steady rather than moving it either direction.
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa (2%, unchanged): Stiles's consistency keeps her priced identically to Olson despite a very different season arc.
- Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik (1%, -1 pt): Ali slipped slightly after a middle-of-the-pack score.
- Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess (1%, -1 pt): Cameron remains priced as a deep longshot on Polymarket.
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How Kalshi and Polymarket Compare on the Season 35 Winner Market
The two boards agree almost perfectly at the top: Frech is the overwhelming favorite on both exchanges, and Higgins is a clear, uncontested second. Where they split is the Shum-Glenn order. Kalshi has Shum a point ahead of Glenn, while Polymarket prices them as a dead heat after Glenn's season-best score. Shum also took a much bigger hit on Polymarket's board (-3) than on Kalshi's (-1), suggesting Polymarket's trader base reacted more sharply to the week's results, or simply runs thinner and moves more on less volume. Dewan is the other interesting divergence: she's priced two points higher on Polymarket than Kalshi despite identical performances on both exchanges' underlying event, a gap likely explained by differences in each platform's trader base rather than anything about the show itself.
DWTS Season 35 Winner Odds Analysis – Market Price Influencers
Frech's market position has only strengthened since he first took over the top spot in week three, and Super Bowl Night's tied-for-highest score gives traders on both exchanges little reason to fade him. With a 122-point cumulative total and the week's best narrative, viz. a Paralympic athlete delivering his best dance of the season on the show's biggest stunt-casting night, he's built a real cushion over the field.
The more interesting story is Jenna Dewan. She matched Frech's season-high score outright, and her 121-point cumulative total trails him by just one, yet she's priced at single digits on both boards while Higgins, Shum and Glenn, each with lower season totals, trade meaningfully higher. That's a sign the winner market is pricing in more than raw scores. Fan-vote strength, screen time, and the show's own narrative favorites appear to be carrying real weight independent of the judges' table.
With six couples gone and ten remaining, the field is starting to separate into tiers: a true favorite in Frech, a clear second in Higgins, a congested knot fighting for third between Shum and Glenn, and a longer tail of couples who are safe for now but unlikely to factor into the title conversation. The biggest swing factor left on the board is whether Dewan's scoring consistency eventually forces a repricing, or whether the market's current read on her ceiling holds up as the season gets more competitive.
How to Trade DWTS Season 35 Winner Markets on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
