2020 NFL Draft Odds & Prop Picks: Exact Order of Top 3 Picks
Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ohio State defensive lineman Chase Young
2020 NFL Draft Odds: Exact Order of Top Three Picks
- Joe Burrow, Chase Young, Tua Tagovailoa: -106
- Joe Burrow, Chase Young, Jeffrey Okudah: +230
- Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Chase Young: +315
- Joe Burrow, Chase Young, Isaiah Simmons: +1000
- Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Jeffrey Okudah: +2200
- Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Isaiah Simmons: +2800
A robust prop market is forming for the 2020 NFL Draft, and that’s great for us.
Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there, including the one for the exact order of the top three picks.
2020 NFL Draft: Joe Burrow, Chase Young, Jeffrey Okudah +230 (PointsBet)
LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and Ohio State edge defender Chase Young both look like safe bets to go Nos. 1-2, so I expect this prop to come down to who goes No. 3.
Right now, the market assumes that Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is likely to be selected No. 3 overall, but we need to examine that assumption.
The Lions could take Tagovailoa at No. 3, or they could trade down and allow teams like the Dolphins at No. 5 or the Chargers at No. 6 to trade up.
But the Lions might not want to trade out of the No. 3 pick, because then they might miss out on Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah — and the Lions desperately need help in their secondary. Last year, the Lions allowed a league-high 503.2 air yards and yards after the catch per game (per AirYards.com).
And the Dolphins and Chargers — despite being in the quarterback market — might be unmotivated to trade up, because it’s highly probable that either Tagovailoa or Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert will fall to them.
So even though the market is thinking of No. 3 as the “Tua pick,” there’s a very real chance he doesn’t go in the top three.
And if Tagovailoa doesn’t go No. 3, the clear candidate for that pick is Okudah.
I take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible. I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.
And in these drafts, I see the Burrow-Young-Okudah sequence 50% of the time.
PICK: Burrow, Young, Okudah +230: One unit. Limit: +200
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
2020 NFL Draft: Joe Burrow, Chase Young, Isaiah Simmons +1200 (DraftKings)
Is it actually possible that an off-ball linebacker/safety hybrid could go No. 3 in the draft, ahead of the quarterback who entered the 2019 college football season widely expected to go No. 1 overall?
Yes, it might happen.
In 30% of the mocks I’ve surveyed, I see the Burrow-Young-Simmons sequence at the top of the draft.
Like Okudah, Simmons is a clear tier above everyone else at his position. For Tagovailoa, that’s not the case: Herbert might be selected right after Tua.
So Simmons has a real chance to go No. 3, and although I generally don’t think of off-ball linebackers as true difference-making players, the sheer talent Simmons possesses is undeniable.
Isaiah Simmons was 6’4″ and 238 pounds at the combine and ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash.
Based on those numbers, which draft prospect do you think he is most physically comparable to from the past 20 years? pic.twitter.com/uCOYMTNu8G
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) March 5, 2020
The answer: Calvin Johnson.
If you were the Lions, and you had the opportunity to draft the linebacker version of Megatron, wouldn’t you at least strongly consider it?
PICK: Burrow, Young, Simmons +1200: One unit. Limit: +800
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Picks
- Total QBs Drafted in Round 1
- How to Bet the Top 3 Picks
- QB Tua Tagovailoa’s Draft Position
- First Wide Receiver to Be Drafted
- First Running Back to Be Drafted
- First Tight End to Be Drafted
- First Offensive Lineman to Be Drafted
- Second Offensive Player to Be Drafted
Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.