Koerner: Why I’m Betting Against Tom Brady Throwing 34 (or More) Touchdowns for the Buccaneers

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Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady

Tom Brady Prop Pick for 2020


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The most significant free-agent signing of this offseason — or any recent offseason, for that matter — was Tom Brady to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s a noticeable upgrade as he inherits the best 1-2 wide receiver combo in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But this offense will run a bit differently with Brady under center than it did with Jameis Winston.

The Bucs offense was extremely aggressive with Winston, almost out of necessity. Winston would often make high-risk throws into tight coverage or “what were you thinking?!” poor throws that resulted in turnovers. He led the league with 30 interceptions in 2019 — the next closest was Baker Mayfield with 21.

Those turnovers put a ton of pressure on the defense and forced the Bucs offense to remain aggressive. Brady will be able to prevent that thanks to his elite ability to limit turnovers: He’s thrown 10 or more interceptions only three times over the past decade. The Bucs defense will continue to improve this year, and Brady will be able to keep them off the field much more than last season.

I have Brady projected for 4,313 passing yards and 30.0 touchdowns — and no, the -150 price on under 33.5 TDs is not enough to scare me away from 3.5 TDs of value.

Another reason the under has some hidden value is the uncertainty of how much practice time players will have this offseason. With COVID-19 forcing extreme social distancing, it’s unclear when we’ll be safe to resume our everyday lives. Brady would ideally spend even more time practicing with his new teammates to learn a brand new offense, but he may not get that chance.

We could see various players who changed teams take more time to develop chemistry with their new teammates — something we’ll have to keep in mind if OTAs or even training camps are cut short or canceled altogether.

If you’re bullish on Brady and want to bet the over on 33.5 TDs thrown, I wouldn’t say you’re crazy. However, at a number this high, it might be worth waiting for the market on most TDs thrown to open. Last year, the quarterback who threw the most TDs was Lamar Jackson with 36, which means the mark Brady would have to hit for his 33.5 TD prop to go over would already put him in the running for most TD passes thrown. I think we can expect him to be somewhere in the range of 6-1 to 10-1 for the most TDs thrown, so you would be getting a lot more value on him in that market as opposed to the +115 price for over 33.5 TDs thrown.

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