2024 NFL Draft Odds for Top 5: Where Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy Are Forecasted To Go

2024 NFL Draft Odds for Top 5: Where Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy Are Forecasted To Go article feature image

Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Jayden Daniels (left), J.J. McCarthy (center) and Drake Maye.

It was in April last year that 2024 NFL Draft odds started fluctuating wildly. There are a few key differences between this year's draft and 2023, though.

One similarity is that there are four quarterback prospects being hyped as potential high first-round picks. Last year, it was Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. This year, it's Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy.

In 2024, though, there is a clear No. 1 overall pick. There is unlikely to be any "Will Levis is telling his friends that he's going No. 1 overall" drama to shift odds on the top pick this year. Williams, barring shocking events, will be the Bears' choice with the first selection.

From there, a lot is unknown. Daniels and Maye appear to be the second tier of QB prospects, and some will tell you there are teams that have McCarthy paired with them.

Another big difference is the lack of defensive players being mocked toward the top of the first round. If you go off the odds at FanDuel, it's unlikely that a defensive player is taken until the eighth pick. That would be after the four quarterbacks, two receivers and top offensive lineman are all gone.

For this, we'll stick to the top-five picks at the top of the draft board.

All odds used below are via FanDuel and as of 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, April 2.

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No. 1 Overall Pick

Caleb Williams-8000
Jayden Daniels+3000
Drake Maye+4000
J.J. McCarthy+8000
Marvin Harrison Jr.+8000

There is no drama here. The Bears have traded their starting quarterback from last season to make room for a new one. There's a clear No. 1 prospect at quarterback in this year's draft. Let's move on.

No. 2 Overall Pick

Drake Maye+105
Jayden Daniels+115
J.J. McCarthy+430

Here's where the intrigue begins.

The consensus among mockers is Maye and Daniels are neck and neck to be the second quarterback taken, but McCarthy is getting a lot of hype in the media and from Jim Harbaugh, who coached him at Michigan.

What we do know with reasonably certainty is that the No. 2 pick in this draft is going to be a quarterback. The Commanders traded Sam Howell, let Jacoby Brissett walk in free agency and signed Marcus Mariota. There's a clear vacancy at the QB1 spot on that depth chart that will likely be filled in the draft.

No. 3 Overall Pick

Jayden Daniels+130
Drake Maye+130
J.J. McCarthy+400
Marvin Harrison Jr.+1600
Malik Nabers+7500
Joe Alt+10000

The expectation is also that a quarterback will be taken with the third overall pick in the draft by the Patriots. New England traded Mac Jones and still has Bailey Zappe on the roster, although the former MAC legend hasn't done enough to show he's the quarterback of the future.

New Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo has said the team isn't set on taking a quarterback at No. 3, even hinting at the possibility of trading down. If New England doesn't take a quarterback in the first round, it's likely a case of the Pats having the top-two quarterbacks graded so much higher than the bronze medalist that they feel the best course of action is improving the rest of the roster.

If New England doesn't take a quarterback at No. 3 overall, it's still very possible that it does trade down to a team that has the remaining quarterback of the top three graded higher than that — or to a team that just loves J.J. McCarthy.

No. 4 Overall Pick

Marvin Harrison Jr.-200
J.J. McCarthy+330
Drake Maye+900
Jayden Daniels+1100
Malik Nabers+1700
Joe Alt+10000

As the odds indicate, the most likely outcome here is the Cardinals stay put at No. 4 and take the best non-quarterback available.

Last year, Arizona traded down from the No. 3 overall pick to No. 12, only to trade back up to No. 6 to take offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. The Cardinals got an extra first-round pick in this year's draft from the Texans by doing so.

Arizona has its quarterback in Kyler Murray and its left tackle in Johnson. That takes the QBs and Alt out of this equation. There's a chance the Cardinals don't view Harrison as the best receiver and go with Nabers, but all signs point to the Ohio State star.

The Cardinals could trade down for a second straight year if a team wants the last of the remaining top-four quarterbacks, but it feels most likely that they stand pat and take the best non-QB on the board.

No. 5 Overall Pick

Malik Nabers+200
Marvin Harrison Jr.+300
J.J. McCarthy+440
Joe Alt+500
Rome Odunze+1600
Jayden Daniels+2000
Drake Maye+2000

According to the odds board at FanDuel, there will be three quarterbacks and one wide receiver gone at this pick.

The Chargers have an obvious need at wide receiver after trading Keenan Allen to the Bears and releasing Mike Williams. The thought is that one of the top receivers will be there, and the expectation, as indicated by FanDuel's odds, is that Harrison is gone and Nabers will be the pick.

Here's why I'm slightly skeptical that the Chargers taking a wide receiver with the fifth overall pick isn't the slam dunk that a lot of people think it is.

This is why rebuilding teams draft linemen before skill guys. And a good explanation for why Jim Harbaugh has leaned on, and won with, outstanding offensive lines wherever he’s gone. pic.twitter.com/DXIjtx4T3V

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) March 27, 2024

Harbaugh just won a national championship at Michigan with a focus on running the ball and a quarterback who was a game manager. With the 49ers, the closest thing to a star receiver he had was Michael Crabtree. Greg Roman, his new offensive coordinator, was just in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson and never had a go-to receiver.

I'm doubtful that it's a slam dunk for the Chargers to pick a receiver here. I think options that should be considered as "just as likely" as trading No. 5 to a team that wants one of the four quarterbacks to accumulate as much talent as possible or taking Alt at No. 5.

To Be a Top-Five Pick

Jayden Daniels-1200
Drake Maye-1200
Marvin Harrison Jr.-850
J.J. McCarthy-280
Malik Nabers+170
Joe Alt+470
Rome Odunze+1000

Based on everything you just read, the expectation in the betting market is that the top-five picks are four quarterbacks and a wide receiver (Harrison). It seems like based on the odds in the top-five market above that the chase to be the fifth of the top five is between McCarthy and Nabers. (Note: Caleb Williams isn't listed here because it would be a massive shock or take a surprising turn of events for him to not be a top-five pick.

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