NFL Predictions: 8 Worst-to-First Picks, Rankings

It seems like it happens every season — a surprising NFL team goes from worst-to-first in its division.

Some poor, forlorn team has the year from hell, finishes at the bottom of its division and earns a top draft pick. Analysts spend all offseason writing them off, and everyone avoids all their guys in fantasy football. The new season dawns with little hope.

Then, four months later, that team somehow wins its division and hosts a playoff game. Sound familiar? It certainly should.

In 20 of the past 23 NFL seasons (87%), at least one cellar dweller flipped the script and won its division the following season.

How about a quick review of the past decade?

In 2016, the Cowboys drafted Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott and leapt from 4-12 to 13-3; the Eagles jumped from 7-9 to champs the following year. We nailed both of those predictions, but missed the Bears and Texans in 2018 and Washington in 2019.

The 2021 Bengals went from the cellar to the Super Bowl, and we bet the Jaguars at +800 to go worst-to-first in 2022 right here in this column. Then, we doubled up with Texans Island in 2023, a long shot miracle at +1100.

There was no worst-to-first winner in 2024, but last year we did it again with Bears +550, as Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson helped Chicago leap from 5-12 to top of the NFC North.

A $100 bettor that played my worst-to-first pick each season for the last decade would be up $2400 — not bad for one bet a year!

Since the NFL adopted its current division format in 2002, 30 last-place teams have won the division the following season, an average of 1.25 per year. It just keeps on happening, year after year.

Some books allow us to bet on whether any of the eight possibilities will go worst-to-first. History says anything shorter than -700 would technically be a good bet there, and DraftKings is offering that bet at -210 for yes. But we're greedy! We want big, long-shot winners.

Let's rank last season's bottom feeders from least to most bettable and find a new island best bet for 2026.

2026 NFL Worst-to-First Rankings

Tier 5 — No Way, No How

8. Arizona Cardinals +10000 (DraftKings)

When searching for a new island, it's always a good idea to check out the full archipelago. Any worst-to-first pick is inherently a bet against three division opponents — which can be good or bad news.

For the Cardinals, it's definitely bad news.

The NFC West is loaded. You've got the defending champion Seahawks, this year's Super Bowl-favorite Rams, and the stalwart 49ers, where Kyle Shanahan has made the NFC Championship in 4-of-9 seasons.

We just ranked everything under the sun the last two weeks. That's the top-2 offenses in the league, two of the top-5 defenses, and three of my top-5 teams overall. That means six grueling division games, and it means three superior opponents to pass in the standings.

It's not just those teams, though — the Cardinals' schedule is brutal.

Arizona is a double-digit underdog to open the season against the Chargers. During the first 11 weeks, the Cards might very well be double-digit underdogs 10 times. That includes five division opponents plus the Chargers, Lions, Cowboys, Broncos, and Chiefs.

This is a Cardinals team that didn't even really bother to go get a QB for the new season. Blink and they could be 2-9 — or worse.

Oh, sure, there are things to like.

The skill players are pretty good. Rookie Jeremiyah Love leads what could be the league's best RB room, Trey McBride is a star, and Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson are good options at WR. The left side of the offensive line is good, and there are talented young players on defense like Walter Nolen and Will Johnson.

The Cardinals probably aren't as bad as this looks — even last year, they won three games with underlying metrics that looked more like a 5.5-win squad — but it's a brutal uphill battle in this division with this schedule.

Verdict: Football is weird, and I'll never fault you for taking a shot on a team to win its division at +10000. But with the schedule so brutal in a tough division, this probably won't be our last chance. We might hit +25000 in September!

Tier 4 — Hard to See It, Especially in Those Divisions

7. Cleveland Browns +2300 (Caesars)

If you've been following along with my rankings series, you might be surprised to see the Browns anywhere other than the bottom of these rankings. After all, Cleveland has basically setup shop and lived there.

The Browns enter the season with the worst QB depth chart in football.

Somehow Deshaun Watson will start Opening Day ahead of Shedeur Sanders, but it looks like a mess either way. Cleveland also ranked last among offensive lines, where the only nice thing I could say was that the Browns return zero starters from last year's disaster.

Cleveland ranks bottom-5 in skill players, bottom-5 in coaching staffs. I didn't rank special teams, but Cleveland would rank last there, too. The Browns finished 31st in DVOA there last season and inexplicably just brought everybody back.

The Browns defense is the standout unit! They were all the way up at 26th in the ranks, though that's a unit that just lost Myles Garrett and Jim Schwartz, so that might be optimistic.

At the end of the day, Cleveland isn't just the worst team in my overall rankings. I have the Browns a full point to the spread worse than any other team, eight worse than a neutral squad, and currently an 18-point underdog if they visited the Rams. Woof.

It's a real shame, because this is arguably the best Cleveland should feel about its division rivals in years!

The Ravens and Steelers are in transition with new coaches; the Bengals aren't, which might be even better. Lamar Jackson is uncertain. Aaron Rodgers is certain. Cincinnati still can't play defense.

Cleveland faces the third softest first-half schedule by DVOA, and this should be a great opportunity in the AFC North.

Verdict: I'm not buying it. I still think the Ravens could get to the Super Bowl, and the Bengals and Steelers look like playoff contenders. Cleveland's roster is a dumpster fire. No, thank you.

6. Las Vegas Raiders +3000 (BetMGM)

It's another loaded division archipelago in the AFC West with the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers. By my rankings, that's two top-10 offenses, two top-10 defenses, and six tough games.

Even if Fernando Mendoza is good, he needs to beat Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and heck, even Bo Nix is 24-10 now.

Hey, maybe you like Klint Kubiak! Great, but he still has to beat Andy Reid, Sean Payton, and Jim Harbaugh.

Still, squint and you can kinda make a case for the Raiders! They're home against the Dolphins in Week 1 for starters — as favorites! Then, they draw the Chargers and Saints after that, so Las Vegas could very well start the season 2-1 or even 3-0.

The roster is more bad than awful, with plenty of things to like.

The offensive line should be better with a healthy Kolton Miller back in the mix, along with big FA signing Tyler Linderbaum. There are real weapons too, with Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty leading the way. Mendoza and Kirk Cousins both fit the Kubiak system well.

Kubiak elevates everything on the offense. Outside of the Lions, who are obviously the best of the eight teams in this article, you can make an case that the Raiders offense is the one unit here with the highest upside. The question is how long it'll take to get there, though.

It's a hard-knock life as a first-year coach, and it can be even rougher for rookie quarterbacks. Since 2015, 10 quarterbacks have been selected 1st overall in the draft. Those quarterbacks averaged just 3.4 wins as rookies, with a max of six by Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield.

There's reason for Raiders optimism, but it will take some time — mark me down for some early intrigue on Raiders Island 2027.

For now, this looks like one of the league's worst defenses, one that'll badly miss DC Patrick Graham, and it was a bottom-5 special teams last year too, all in another brutal division.

Verdict: If you're a day trader playing the prediction markets, you can't hate investing in a +3000 long shot with a chance to start out 3-0. Just don't forget to sell your stock while the gettin's good.

Tier 3 — So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance…

5. Tennessee Titans +950 (FanDuel)

We finally made it past the loaded divisions — I honestly expected the Titans to finish higher in these ranks, but it is really hard to get excited about this collection of players and coaches.

I keep a rosters matrix with every NFL team and every position, and my ratings automatically turn green for good and red for bad. There are 64 offenses and defenses across the NFL, and there's only one unit that's red all the way across the board — the Titans offense. There's just nothing there.

Peter Skoronski is good, but the rest of the offensive line is as bad as any team in football. The receivers should be improved with Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson, but Tennessee's skill players are among the worst in the league — and for all the Cam Ward optimism and eye tests, there's no denying he's been absolutely awful on an NFL field so far in his career.

Then, there's the new coaching staff: Robert Saleh leading the way, with Brian Daboll and Gus Bradley as coordinators. Just pure rage bait. That is the Unholy Tri-dumb-verate of coaches.

It's really hard to talk yourself into this offense, and Ward and the Titans start the season against the Jets, Eagles, Giants, Ravens, and Texans — all among my top-18 defenses, including three of my top-6.

The best argument for Tennessee is the AFC South, but that division argument holds less water than it used to.

Houston has one of the league's finest defenses and has established a high, safe floor under DeMeco Ryans. The Jaguars are above average on both offense and defense with a great young staff. Even the Colts look around league-average, with the best run-blocking line in the league.

There's not as much upside betting the AFC South as there once was. Still, it makes sense that Tennessee should be better than last year.

Saleh is a good defensive coach, and Jeffrey Simmons is a star. This defense ranked 17th-to-19th in DVOA three years in a row before last season and could return toward middle-of-the-pack, and the special teams took a huge leap under John Fassell.

The floor and the ceiling likely both depend on Ward, and you know that stat about No. 1 pick QBs above? They win 3.2 games on average as rookies but 8.3 as sophomores, a 144% increase!

Joe Burrow jumped from 2-to-10 wins, Trevor Lawrence from 3-to-9, and Jared Goff from 0-to-11! Caleb Williams just jumped from 5-to-11 last year as our worst-to-first pick. Six of the last eight won 8+ games as sophomores. That would be a big step up for Ward — and probably still wouldn't be enough to win this division.

Verdict: The Titans may be improved this season, but I'd rather go over-6.5 at plus-money than take the whole division. The AFC South just isn't as bad as it used to be.

4. New York Jets +5000 (Caesars)

Look at the Jets, in the top half of the rankings! There's some real talent on this team.

I'm kind of into New York's defense. Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams, and Quincy Williams are gone, but Demario Davis, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and David Onyemata will fill in nicely as Aaron Glenn takes back the reins as a play caller, and first-round rookie David Bailey could finally be the pass rush this team has needed.

The offense has plenty of talent, too. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are better than they've looked in this bad ecosystem, and Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper join the squad from the first round, while Ola Fashanu and Armand Membou were the last two first rounders and anchor the line.

Also, get to know the name Chris Banjo. He led the Jets to an outlier No. 1 DVOA special teams ranking in his debut season.

Still, it can be hard to get past Glenn, Geno Smith, and Frank Reich.

I swear Geno is good, or at least has been. With protection, Smith is one of the most accurate passers in the league, enough to help him finish .500 or better in 4-of-6 years as a starter. He's inconsistent and might just be cooked at age 36, but there's something there.

Reich is a tougher sell. His last two NFL offenses finished bottom-2 in the league and improved immediately after he left, but he was a good offensive coach at some point, and folks were excited about Aaron Glenn as a head coach.

There are any number of reasons to believe the Jets should improve in 2026. This team had remarkably bad turnover luck last season, the first team in league history to not record a single interception. They finished with a -19 turnover differential and ranked bottom-2 on both offensive and defensive red zone.

Those metrics have to improve, by default. Plus, the Jets play the Titans in Week 1, and they get to play the Dolphins twice!

Of course, so do the Bills and Patriots — but those teams might not be as scary as they seem. I rank Buffalo among the bottom-10 defenses and bottom-5 at special teams. New England won 14 games, but the metrics suggested something more like 10 wins, and there are a number of regression trends that suggest a downswing.

Ten wins could end up taking this division, and look again at that Week 1 schedule. If the Jets beat the Titans while the Bills and Patriots lose in Houston and Seattle, New York could actually be leading this division heading into Week 2!

Verdict: I'm in for a nibble! Just about any team is worth a look at 50-to-1, and there are a few reasons to like the Jets. With a real shot that they're alone atop the division a week in, +5000 is too good to pass on.

Tier 2 — Most Likely Doesn’t Necessarily Mean Best Bet

3. New Orleans Saints +270 (DraftKings)

The Saints are everybody's favorite sleeper, and there are plenty of things to like. New Orleans invested heavily into its offensive line, paying up for David Andrews next to four former top-two-round picks.

Tyler Shough had moments as a rookie, though I'm still pretty skeptical of his pocket presence. But there's talent up and down this roster if it can actually stay healthy at receiver, and quarterback, and offensive line, and defense.

With that said, the defense is already pretty good! Brandon Staley's unit is the only one other than the Lions to rank in the top half of the league after a big step forward last season, especially against the run.

The Saints coaches might be good too! Staley and Kellen Moore both look like fringe top-10 play callers.

Of course, we're burying the lede — the only reason anyone even noticed all that stuff is because the Saints play in the NFC South, where someone has to win the division.

That's great news for Saints, but it's not such good news for bettors.

The NFC South looks terrible again. We needn't say much about the Falcons or Panthers — both bottom-10 on both offense and defense in my rankings — and though I do like the Bucs, there's little question this is the most winnable division in the league.

The problem is the sportsbooks noticed that, too.

The Saints are just +270 to win the South, an implied 27% probability. This is a team that's something like 25th best in the NFL, akin to the Jets or Raiders. They're not good! They're just not terrible, and not-terrible isn't enough to need a +270 bet in a division with other options.

The Bucs are +185 instead, just 8% implied more likely, and that's crazy. I had Tampa Bay in my top-15 offenses and defenses, so this team is better than the Saints in both areas. I'd have the Bucs favored by a field goal on a neutral field.

The Saints might contend in the division, but at +270, there's little value to be had for bettors.

Verdict: You're right to want to invest in the NFC South, but the Bucs are the right bet at +185 and a similar price to these Saints. If you believe in New Orleans, you're probably better off betting game-to-game instead.

2. Detroit Lions +170 (DraftKings)

It feels like there's always one "easy" worst-to-first pick on the board.

Last year, the 49ers qualified as an option after a season full of injuries. The year before, the Bengals looked like a free space. But neither of those teams were actually a valuable bet the following season, and wouldn't you know it, neither actually cashed either.

That might be the Lions this year, who just continue to slowly trickle in the wrong direction.

The rushing attack is fading, down to 10th in DVOA last season, and now David Montgomery is gone for the far worse Isaiah Pacheco. The offensive line was best in the league two years ago but looks league-average starting the season without injured C Cade Mays.

Ben Johnson is long gone, and the offense hasn't been quite the same without him, and the defense has lost some key veterans.

There are reasons for Lions optimism. This team had the worst fumble luck in the league last year, and they also rank dead last in adjusted games lost to injury defensively. But that part looks likely to carry over into 2026 with star safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph out indefinitely and Detroit's secondary down four starters from last year to start the new season.

Dan Campbell is good, and we've already seen this team hang in there amidst a flurry of injuries, but this division is absolutely loaded. I have all four NFC North teams within under a win of each other, around 10 wins, and I was so ready to be all the way out on Detroit, even telling you to bet "No" for division winner potentially.

Then I looked at the schedule. Detroit's schedule might be the easiest in the entire league. The Lions' schedule is INSANE.

Because the Lions finished last in the division, their three last-place variable opponents this year are the Giants, Cardinals, and Titans. Compare that to the three teams the Packers (Cowboys, Rams, Texans) or Bears (Eagles, Seahawks, Jaguars) got instead, and that could legitimately be a 2-or-3-game swing!

Detroit's schedule also starts soft at the beginning, while the team tries to get healthy.

It's fine if you like the Lions, or even think they're best in the division. Detroit is good! I have the Lions top half of the league on offense, defense, and special teams. But I have every offense and defense in this division top half of the league, outside of Green Bay's defense.

This division is tough! And +170 is short. The Lions are division favorites!

Verdict: This is a marathon, not a sprint. You absolutely cannot bet on that short a favorite in this division starting the year with all those injuries. The Lions are the most likely worst-to-first winner, but that doesn't make them a good bet.

Tier 1 — Giants Island[ 🌴🌴🌴

1. New York Giants +600 (DraftKings)

We made, it folks. It's our new island worst-to-first pick for 2026 — Giants Island.

Uhh, maybe that's Staten Island? Or if it's Giant Island you prefer, maybe we go all Odyssey and call this The Island of Laestrygonians.

So, how did we get here? Let's start with this — the Giants are one of the most obvious improvement teams I've seen in recent memory.

Last season New York won only four games, but the underlying metrics suggest this was more like a seven-win team.

The Giants went 1-7 in one-score games, blowing games against the Cowboys, Broncos, and entire NFC North. New York had a fourth-quarter lead in five of those six, including a lead in the final minute in three of them! These were epic collapses, surefire wins — wins teams would get most years, with any normal amount of luck.

The Pythagorean model put last year's Giants squad at 7.1 wins. We'd feel a lot differently about Jaxson Dart's 7-10 rookie season, wouldn't we? Since 1990, 23 teams have finished at least 2.5 Pythagorean wins under expectation. Per Bill Barnwell, those teams improved by an average of three full wins the next season.

The Giants added a ton of talent up and down the roster, especially on defense.

New York moved on from Dexter Lawrence after a disappointing campaign that saw the team rank dead last in rush defense, absolutely incapable of stopping the run.

So, what did the Giants do? They went out and signed run-stuffer-for-life D.J. Reader at tackle and run-stopping LB Tremaine Edmunds. They added Shelby Harris and drafted Arvel Reese. If the Giants can actually stop the run a little, now that vaunted pass rush can make an impact.

Abdul Carter looked like a future superstar last season by the underlying metrics, and he, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux will make a much bigger impact rushing the passer if opponents can't just run the ball down New York's throat all game.

Add in the upgrade from Shane Bowen to Dennard Wilson at DC and this defense could be league average or even good, a big step forward.

Then, there's the ginormous improvement at coaching staff.

The Giants entered last season 31st in my coaching ranks, but now they went out and got John Harbaugh, one of the best in the business.

His problem in Baltimore was hitting the Ravens' ceiling, but the floor has always been there. Harbaugh has won 8+ games in 17-of-18 seasons in the NFL, with at least one playoff win in half of them, a 10.4-win pace for his career.

Harbaugh is the adult in the room this franchise has needed, and he brings with him a love of special teams and trusty sidekick coach Chris Horton, leader of 11 top-10 special teams units.

The Giants were terrible at special teams last season. They were bad punting and kicking field goals and ranked bottom 10 by DVOA. So, what did they do? They brought in a new punter, a new kicker, a new long snapper, and two new kick returners.

New York made special teams a priority because John Harbaugh knows it's important. If the Giants leap from bottom-10 to top-5 in special teams as I expect them to, that could be worth as much as two points to the spread every game this fall!

Of course, with Harbaugh came an offensive hire that was certainly offensive. That would be new OC Matt Nagy, along with assistants Greg Roman and Brian Callahan — all guys I've happily faded in recent years. Those guys tend to be ceiling cappers, which is why Andy Reid and Jim Harbaugh were happy to move on this offseason.

However, those legendary coaches also hired these guys, because they're good offensive minds; they're just floor-raisers, not ceiling guys — and that's what this offense needs right now, floor, not ceiling.

Nagy and Roman are over-committed to the run game, but that might be just the solution for a Giants offense that actually ran the ball pretty well with Cam Skattebo last fall behind an offensive line that could be above average if Andrew Thomas stays healthy.

It looks like Malik Nabers is actually healthy to start the year too, and he's the perfect downfield target for home-run-hunting Jaxson Dart.

Dart struggled on a down-to-down basis as a rookie, with a poor Success Rate, but he hit plenty of explosives and that actually left a pretty impressive EPA per play.

For a tepid offense, swinging for the fences can be a good outcome. Eat your vegetables with the run game, then go for the occasional big play with Dart's arm or legs — and if those legs cost Dart a game, turn things over to Captain YOLO Jameis Winston to keep hunting downfield.

If you think of this team as starting with "seven" wins last season and add in more stability, better coaching, and a special teams leap, you're suddenly at .500 ball or better — and with reasons to doubt Philadelphia's offense and Dallas's defense, that puts the Giants in play.

Remember, no NFC East team had repeated as division champ in back-to-back seasons since 2004 until the Eagles did it the last two years.

The schedule doesn't start out the kindest. The Giants play the Cowboys in the opener, then at the Rams. This isn't a very fun bet if it starts 0-2 right off the bat.

But they are going to have to beat the Cowboys or Eagles at some point to win this division, so why not do it in the opener, with a home game against a defense that ranked last in DVOA last season and that debuts a new unproven play-caller this fall? And, if you have to play the Rams, how about right after they traveled halfway around the world for an Australian opener?

Split those first two games at 1-1, and now it's Titans, Cardinals, the division-rival Commanders coming off a London game without rest, and Saints. Suddenly, the Giants are 4-2, maybe even 5-1, and everybody's talking.

New York ends the season at Dallas, then home against Philly — not great! But again, you're going to have to beat the division to win the division, and if the Giants are in play late, that will give our ticket oxygen.

There's only one way up from here. Giants Island, here we come!

Verdict: Nobody said this was easy. Next stop, Giants Island +600! All aboard the hype train.