The Atlanta Falcons (1-2) and New Orleans Saints (1-2) will meet in the Week 4 edition of Monday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Saints are 1.5-point favorites over the Falcons on the spread, with the over/under set at 47.5 total points. New Orleans is a -130 moneyline favorite while Atlanta is a +110 underdog.
Let's get into my Falcons vs Saints predictions for Monday Night Football.
Falcons vs Saints Prediction
- Falcons vs Saints pick: Falcons +1.5
My Falcons vs. Saints best bet is for the Falcons to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at DraftKings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Falcons vs Saints Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +110 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -130 |
Falcons vs Saints Monday Night Football Preview
New Orleans Saints Betting Preview: Can Shough Carry the Load?
With the NFL shifting to heavier formations and more run-centric game plans, it is impossible to ignore the discrepancy in this game between how each team runs the football and defends the run.
Prior to the season beginning, it felt as if the Saints made a concerted effort to invest in their rushing attack, but the results of such an emphasis have been highly disappointing.
Kellen Moore has really had no choice in the matter. Tyler Shough leads the league in dropbacks per game, but his performance has been volatile.
Clearly, he possesses the talent to lead his team to an abundance of points, but this style of play has translated to several turnovers. In fact, he has fumbled in each game this season, losing three of his five fumbles through three games.
This is an issue that has carried over from his rookie season in 2025.
Shough lost three fumbles a year ago and, in total, he has put the ball on the turf 11 times in his first 14 appearances as the Saints’ starting quarterback.
In addition to ball security concerns, Shough has thrown three interceptions this season and will face his toughest matchup to date. The Atlanta defense ranks second in the NFL in total success rate and its 44% pressure rate leads the NFL.
Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich has truly been incredible orchestrating this unit since the beginning of last season. Ulbrich has dealt with the loss of personnel that contributed to the team’s high sack total in 2025, yet he continues to find ways to assist his defense in generating pressure.
The Saints have struggled to run the football and without Travis Etienne for the foreseeable future, it is doubtful this is the game they begin to establish the line of scrimmage in the running game.
The Falcons have surrendered just 3.1 yards per carry to opposing runners. Atlanta should dominate the early downs defensively, thus forcing Shough and company into long down-and-distance situations where pressure is even more likely to be created.
Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview: Bijan Leads the Way
In regard to the matchup the Falcons offense will navigate on Monday night, the outlook is opposite of what the Saints offense is up against.
The Saints' rush defense is in for a long night — their 4.7 yards per carry against ranks 27th in the NFL and more specifically, they are 29th defending zone runs. The Falcons are the third-best zone rushing offense in football and feature the best running back in the game.
Bijan Robinson is a master of the outside zone running scheme. He should build on his success rate of 60.6% on all rushing plays. That mark ranks him as the third-best runner in terms of success rate through three games.
In addition to being remarkably consistent, he has 163 yards on explosive runs. Given that defenses made him their focal point in the first two games with Cooper Rush under center, these numbers become even more impressive.
Michael Penix Jr. took over the reins to this offense in Week 3, and after settling in, he made a statement that he still has the tools to be the quarterback of the future for this franchise. Penix completed 16 of his last 18 attempts for 234 yards to lead the Falcons to victory at Lambeau Field.
His favoritism towards the uber-talented Drake London continues to lead to eye-popping statistics. In six of the last seven games th duo has played together, London has exceeded 100 yards receiving.
Saints cornerbacks Quincy Riley and Kool-Aid McKinstry have been solid this season, but they are no match for London.
Falcons vs Saints Prediction, Betting Analysis
There were five circumstances in the 2025 regular season that mirror the one we will see on Monday Night Football — an underdog on extended rest, with extra time to prepare, playing against a team that played a week prior. Those underdogs went 4-1 against the number in those five scenarios a year ago.
It is also worth noting that reserve left tackle Asim Richards will make the start for the Saints once again this week. Richards surrendered six pressures last week and now will be tasked with limiting a pass rush playing exceptionally in their current form.
It is hard to envision this contest playing out in a manner where Tyler Shough isn’t under constant duress.
I have to back the underdog in this spot. The Falcons will gash the Saints' run defense en route to sustaining drives more often than not.
Michael Penix Jr. will comfortably enjoy a play-action focused gameplan under head coach Kevin Stefanski that will lead the Falcons to their second consecutive road win.
Pick: Falcons +1.5
