The Carolina Panthers host the Detroit Lions tonight on NFL Sunday Night Football. Kickoff from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C., is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. SNF will broadcast on NBC.
The Lions are favored by 3.5 points on the spread (Lions -5.5), with an over/under of 50.5. The Lions are -205 favorites on the moneyline and the Panthers are +172 underdogs.
Continue below for our Lions vs Panthers picks for Sunday Night Football, which include predictions for the moneyline, over/under, and two player props.
Lions vs Panthers Picks, Props
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Lions vs Panthers Odds
- Lions vs Panthers Moneyline: Lions -205, Panthers +172
- Lions vs Panthers Total: 50.5 (-118o / -104u)
- Lions vs Panthers Spread: Lions -3.5 (-118), Panthers +3.5 (-104)
SNF odds via FanDuel — for the latest from sportsbooks nationwide, check out VegasInsider's NFL Week 4 Odds & Action Report.
Lions vs Panthers Moneyline Prediction
By Nick Galaida
It's never easy to win on the road in the NFL, but it's difficult to see the Panthers finding a way to be competitive tonight.
The Panthers were already missing both of their starting offensive tackles to begin the season, and they will be without a third starting offensive lineman this week after LG Damien Lewis suffered an elbow injury against the Browns. The Panthers will also be without both of their starting cornerbacks — Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson — which is far from ideal against a Lions passing attack that ranks fifth in success rate this season.
The Panthers' rush defense ranks 18th in EPA/play allowed. They will get LB Devin Lloyd back from injury, but Detroit has the second-highest rate of explosive runs (10+ yards) in the NFL through three games thanks to Jahmyr Gibbs. The Panthers' run defense has stuffed runs at the third-lowest rate in the league and ranks 16th in yards allowed before contact.
Detroit's offensive line is one of the better units in the NFL. This is a game Detroit should win.
Pick: Lions Moneyline (-185)
Lions vs Panthers Over/Under Pick
Sunday Night Football should feature plenty of points.
I expect the public to be piling money in on the over, and I am going to join them as the handicap is rather straightforward. The Lions are last in the NFL in defensive EPA and can't get off the field on third down, allowing teams to convert at a 56% rate (31st in the NFL).
Detroit also allows the most explosive plays per game in the league. Surprisingly, this is an area the Panthers have excelled through three games — its 13 passing plays of 20 or more yards are tied for the most in the league. There may be times the Lions get pressure on Bryce Young, but Young has excelled from a clean pocket with a 128.3 rating. In general, he has been making better decisions, decreasing his turnover-worthy throw rate to 0.73%.
The Panthers play Cover-3 at a 44% rate, way above league-average, and I do not see them finding success with this coverage without starting cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson.
Jared Goff should lead the Lions down the field at will, similar to the way Caleb Williams did back in Week 1. It won’t be Cooper Rush or Deshaun Watson the Panthers defense will be tasked with facing this week.
Lastly, these are the two worst red-zone defenses in football when it comes to surrendering touchdowns. Both offenses should get plenty of scoring opportunities and I expect them to cash in for touchdowns on the vast majority of their chances.
This is a rare spot in which I am willing to chase this total up in price through the key number of 51. For now, we are getting a gift at 51 at -110 or better.
Pick: Over 50.5 (-110); bet to 51
Darren Waller Receiving Yards Ladder
Darren Waller has always been a talented pass catcher — the main problem through the years has been his health, which isn't an issue at the moment.
Waller has seen his snaps go up each week, and he played over half the snaps last week. Against the Browns, he had five receptions (on eight targets) for 51 yards, and we could see similar volume tonight given the matchup.
The Lions have given up a touchdown to six tight ends this season, allowing over 100 yards per game to the position. I have Waller projected for 15 yards over this number, and I'm hitting the ladder, starting at over 23.5 yards all the way to 70+ yards. I also bet on him for an anytime touchdown.
Pick: Darren Waller Receiving Yards Ladder (-115 to +800)
- Over 23.5 Yards (-115)
- 40+ Yards (+225)
- 50+ Yards (+375)
- 60+ Yards (+550)
- 70+ Yards (+800)
- Anytime Touchdown (+285)
Bryce Young Pass Yards Prop
By Billy Ward
Sunday Night Football features the NFL’s passing yardage leader taking on the NFL’s worst passing defense by yards allowed.
If you asked me before the season which team was which I would’ve certainly got it wrong, as the yardage leader is Bryce Young and the worst passing defense belongs to the Lions.
The Lions defense, especially the secondary, being bad isn’t exactly a surprise. They came into the season with some potential talent in the backfield but an extremely thin group, and within three weeks have already lost two more starters in Avonte Maddox and Thomas Harper.
If and when they and the safety tandem of Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph return this could be a solid unit – but that’s not happening tonight.
With Detroit having an explosive offense, teams are forced to throw aggressively against them to keep up, which only further exacerbates the poor defense. That’s likely to be the case again here as the Lions are favored by 3.5 points.
All of this has me on Bryce Young’s passing yards over. I’d also consider laddering that up to 300+ if you missed my earlier bet on Young to lead the Sunday slate in passing yards at +1500 odds.
By Brit Devine
In a clash between the league's leading passing offense and the league’s worst pass defense, I feel this number is entirely too low, so I am betting to win 2 units.
Bryce Young has gone over this number in all three of his games this season, with no fewer than 287 yards in each game. The Panthers lead the league in passing yards per game.
The Lions have given up more than this line in each of their first three games and have allowed a league-leading 299 yards passing per game.
Even the laziest analysis points to the over hitting in a big way, but many of the underlying advanced metrics also support it.
Young has the third-most pass attempts in the league as Carolina has transformed into a pass-first team. The Panthers also have the highest situation-neutral pass rate in the league, the eighth-most offensive plays per game, and the highest situation-neutral pace of play.
More plays, more passing, better QB play, and better WR play against the worst pass defense in the league?
Sign me up!
Pick: Bryce Young Over 241.5 Passing Yards (-110)
