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The Detroit Lions (2-1) and Carolina Panthers (1-2) meet in the Week 4 edition of NFL Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. The game will broadcast live on NBC.
The Lions are 3.5-point favorites over the Panthers on the spread, with the over/under set at 50.5 total points. Detroit is a -205 moneyline favorite, while Carolina is a +172 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Lions vs Panthers prediction for Sunday Night Football on October 4.
My Lions vs Panthers Prediction
- Lions vs Panthers pick: Lions Team Total Over 27.5 (-115)
My Lions vs. Panthers best bet is Detroit to go over its team total (27.5), with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Lions vs Panthers Odds
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -118 | 50.5 -118o / -104u | -205 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -104 | 50.5 -118o / -104u | +172 |
Lions vs Panthers Sunday Night Football Preview
Coming into the season, there were some questions surrounding how the Carolina offense would look with Brad Idzik calling plays.
Well, so far, the returns have been positive with the Panthers ranking fifth in points and first in yards per game, despite dealing with wide receiver and offensive line injuries over the first three weeks. They are throwing the ball with Bryce Young at a much higher rate in neutral situations and playing with more tempo.
On the other side of the ball, Carolina brought in Devin Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips over the offseason in order to infuse the defense with more talent, which needed to get better in many facets. Those investments certainly didn't pay off in Week 1 when the Bears put up a whopping 59 points.
The Panthers' overall defensive numbers are middling through three weeks, but that's in large part due to the fact that they faced Cooper Rush and Deshaun Watson over the past two weeks. Will we see improvement as the season progresses? It is certainly possible, but I have a hard time seeing it with the recent injuries in the secondary.
This week, Carolina put both of their top cornerbacks on IR in Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson. That group now consists of rookie Will Lee, journeyman Akayleb Evans and slot Chau Smith-Wade.
For my money, it's the worst cornerback room in the league at the moment with absolutely zero depth — and it's not like you can expect Carolina to make up for it with an elite pressure rate.
Defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero is likely going to have to play a ton of more basic Cover 3 or try to increase the blitz rates with a higher variance approach. Either way, it's hard to envision Carolina getting many stops against a Detroit offense that ranks in the top five in both pass and rush success rate.
The Lions are also trending better health wise along the offensive line.
Carolina now profiles as a pure over team with its new offensive profile and decimated secondary. I can say the same for the Lions, who rank 31st in EPA per play on defense, in large part due to a plethora of injuries in the secondary.
The Lions defense is almost completely reliant on Aidan Hutchinson creating a negative play, which he will certainly do a handful of times, but there's not much else to write home about.
Lions vs Panthers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Lions originally opened as 2.5-point favorites — now it's up to -3.5 and even -4 at some places, which makes sense to me given Carolina's defensive injuries.
That's the only way I could look from a side perspective, but most of the value has been sucked out. Plus, Carolina can certainly cover this number or win outright by matching scores against a suspect Lions defense.
As a result, I personally prefer the Detroit team total market, as I'm most confident in the fact that Carolina won't be able to generate many stops with this mash unit at cornerback.
My only concern is the potential impact the rain in Charlotte all weekend might have on the field and and Jared Goff, who has certainly struggled at times in the past outdoors without perfect conditions.
There at least won't be any wind to worry about, so I'm still okay going with the Detroit team total over. Give me the Lions to score 28+ points on Sunday night.
Pick: Lions Team Total Over 27.5 (-115)
