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We are almost a month into the NFL season, and while there have been plenty of peaks and valleys, last Sunday was the Mariana Trench.
It was an objectively brutal Sunday of betting. We hit our spots on Monday Night and Thursday Night Football, but the Sunday slate was a gauntlet.
However, if you can have the single worst betting Sunday of your life three weeks into the season and still be up over three units on the year with an 8.0% ROI, you are doing some good things.
When you play escalators and mineshafts, you are going to miss sometimes. We are not laying -150 or -200 juice just to claim a few cheap wins — we are hunting for actual value and big payouts.
You are going to see a lot of gross-looking bets and longer odds on my card today. To be clear, this is not me blindly chasing to make up for last week — that is a losing endeavor. These are simply the lines and numbers my metrics point to this week.
We've got spreads, totals, escalators, and lookaheads. Let's get into my NFL Week 4 Mega Preview, as well as a lookahead bet for next week.
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NFL Week 4 Props & Parlays
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Packers vs Buccaneers
Think about the last time we saw Green Bay: the Packers were getting run off the field by Atlanta. Less than a week later, they are more than a field-goal road favorite.
My numbers make this close to a coin flip, but I cannot ask you to bet the Buccaneers again after they have failed to cover in 12 straight games.
However, if you want a crazy buy-low trend: Underdogs between three and seven points that are on a three-game ATS losing streak (Weeks 4-10 since 2014) are a ridiculous 23-2 ATS.
For what it's worth, I did take a shot on Jalon Daniels at 50-1 for Offensive Rookie of the Year and Jordan Love at 100-1 for MVP this week. Those prices are just too long this early in the season.
I'm staying away from a side, but the one thing I know for certain is that the Packers have absolutely no shot to run the ball in this game. Through three games, Green Bay running backs have just 46 carries for 146 yards — an abysmal 3.2 yards per carry.
Former third-round pick MarShawn Lloyd was supposed to be the Josh Jacobs stand-in, but his snaps, carries, and yards have dropped three straight weeks, culminating in just six and four carries his last two games.
Chris Brooks is taking about half the snaps on passing downs, and Kaleb Johnson’s snaps are up. All three Packers running backs combined for just eight carries last week.
Tampa Bay's run defense is always great with Vita Vea clogging the middle, ranking seventh in run DVOA even as the rest of the team struggles.
If the Packers can't run, Jordan Love has to pass. I looked at a pass attempts escalator, but I don't love the numbers. Instead, we are looking at yards with Love hunting deep shots and explosives.
Tampa Bay allowed the sixth-most passing yards last year with a median outcome of 266 yards. Love cleared his 241.5 line in six of his 14 games last year, and the Packers are playing much faster this season.
Love is bombing the ball to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, putting up 312 and 387 yards in Weeks 1 and 3 (two of his top seven yardage games ever). Tampa Bay allowed 300+ passing yards five times last year.
The bet: MarShawn Lloyd Under 8.5 Rush Attempts (-122 at DraftKings)
The bet: Jordan Love Over 241.5 Passing Yards (DraftKings)
Escalator bets: Love 300+ Yards (+340 at DraftKings) / 350+ Yards (+1080 at DraftKings) / 400+ Yards (+3100 at DraftKings)
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Rams vs Eagles
This is a familiar matchup.
The Eagles have won the last four meetings against the Rams, all by six or more points. But why did they win those games? A.J. Brown killed the Rams — he’s gone. Dallas Goedert posted huge numbers — he’s out. Philly currently has very little personnel versatility, and its wide receivers don't block, which severely limits them.
Historically, the Eagles ran all over Los Angeles in those matchups, posting rushing totals of 159, 314, 285, and 86 yards (averaging 211 rushing yards per game on over 36 carries). But they can’t run the ball like that anymore, and their offensive line is struggling.
Matthew Stafford was getting sacked a ton in those previous matchups. Now? Philly hasn't been able to generate much of a pass rush without Jonathan Greenard.
Can the Philadelphia interior offensive line hold up against the Rams' defensive line? I think the answer is no, but I can't play Rams -3 at the key number.
Instead, I am looking at two prop angles that match trends we saw in those games.
First, Puka Nacua should play after dealing with a groin injury. There is re-injury risk, but groin injuries don't typically lead to a loss in on-field production.
Nacua was a monster target hog against Philly in previous meetings, logging 11, 13, 14, and 15 targets (over 13 per game) and averaging 8.3 receptions. He is the one thing Stafford trusts against a Vic Fangio defense.
We are getting a full reception discount on his line from Week 1. He hit 7+ receptions in 12 of 16 games last year (75%), and three of those four misses were games with 5, 6, and 6 catches. That means his entire escalator is mispriced. One extra catch gets us nearly double the payout.
Philly only allowed one receiver to record double-digit catches last year — but it was Nacua with 11 catches for 112 yards.
On the other side, I'll take a small swing on Saquon Barkley. He looked incredibly bursty on Monday Night Football. During the 2024 season, Philly ran for 599 yards in two wins over the Rams, one in the playoffs. Saquon had rips of 62, 70, 72, and 78 yards in those games.
The Rams have only allowed three running back runs of over 25 yards since the start of last season, so we are skipping the median 15.5 standard line and swinging for the grand slam.
The bet: Puka Nacua Over 6.5 Receptions (+123 at Caesars)
Escalator bets: Nacua 8+ Receptions (+216 at DraftKings) / 9+ Receptions (+400 at bet365) / 10+ Receptions (+700 at Caesars) / 12+ Receptions (+1720 at DraftKings) / 13+ Receptions (+2600 at DraftKings)
The bet: Saquon Barkley Longest Rush 30+ Yards (+450 at bet365)
Escalator bet: Barkley Longest Rush 50+ Yards (+1000 at bet365)
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Cardinals vs Giants
I could not have imagined caring about this game, but this is the most wonky line of the week.
Entering the season, this game was lined at Giants -7. Now, three weeks later, it sits at Cardinals -2.5. What in the world happened in September to move this line 10 points?!
Let's do the Matt Moore special: if you flip home-field advantage to Arizona, it implies the Cardinals would be a 7.5-point favorite on a neutral field. The Cardinals are more than a touchdown favorite against a professional NFL team?!
This line was Giants -2.5 on Sunday morning and flipped five points since then. I know Brian Burns is out, but is Brian Burns worth five points to the spread? Josh Allen is worth five points.
I don't get it. These teams look equally bad. They rank 20th and 21st in DVOA this year after finishing 27th and 26th last year. Where are the Cardinals five points better?
The Giants have actually been quietly solid. They dominated the Cowboys and Titans; they just had an awful game when they lost their franchise quarterback to injury, which is understandable.
People are overreacting to the J.J. McCarthy trade. It isn't an indictment of Jameis Winston — the Giants just needed a backup and took a shot on developing a young guy.
Arizona fields the No. 31 DVOA defense, creating a great spot for Malik Nabers against backup corners.
The Giants' run defense sits inside the top 10, and they can deploy Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux to offset the loss of Burns.
Arizona's offense is probably the best unit on the field, but I trust the better coach, the better special teams, and the better defense.
This isn't me stubbornly anchoring to Giants Island — it's just a terrible number.
Since 2015, of the 140 home 'dogs of under three points that won outright, 84 won by at least seven points (60%). The Giants beat Dallas by eight and led Tennessee 12-0 until five minutes were left in the game.
If you like the short home 'dog, bet the alternate line.
The bet: Giants +2.5 (Kalshi)
Alt Line: Giants -6.5 (+285 at FanDuel)
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Titans vs Ravens
Let’s not make this one overly complicated.
There are very few teams in the league I like more than the Ravens, and few I feel worse about than the Titans.
Laying -11.5 points is light; I make this line over -14.
The Titans didn't even score until there were five minutes left against the Giants. Cam Ward and this coaching staff look completely lost. Can you name a single thing this team does well?
The best potential case for Tennessee is Jeffery Simmons going up against a rookie center and a shoddy Ravens offensive line, combined with Baltimore returning from Brazil without a bye week. However, that is not enough.
Lamar Jackson as a home favorite of over 9 points is 12-0 straight up, winning by an average of 17 points per game, and 8-4 ATS. He has never won by fewer than six points in this spot, making Baltimore a good-looking teaser leg as well.
Twelve of Baltimore’s last 15 wins have come by 13+ points. Keep it simple and take the far better team at a bargain price.
The bet: Ravens -11.5 (Kalshi)
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Jaguars vs Bengals
It’s time for our weekly tight end against the Bengals prop!
The Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends over the last two years (plus Dalton Schultz torching them last week). That includes 16 tight end touchdowns last year, the most allowed by any team.
The list of tight ends who scored on them includes Josh Oliver, Brock Wright, Darnell Washington, and Jackson Hawes. Notice a trend? They are all massive, skulking, blocking TE2s.
One of the surprise picks of the NFL Draft this year was Jacksonville selecting Nebraska blocking tight end Nate Boerkircher at pick No. 56. He is 6-foot-5, 250 pounds, looks like Gronk, and scored a bunch of touchdowns in training camp.
The Jaguars are playing heavier in 12 personnel and will need Boerkircher on the field blocking against Cincinnati's front. He has one catch on two targets in his career. Let's bet on his second catch finding the end zone.
Opposing tight ends scored the game's first touchdown three times last year against the Bengals, and all three were blocking tight ends.
The bet: Nate Boerkircher Anytime TD (+1200 at DraftKings)
Escalator bet: Boerkircher First TD (+6500 at bet365)
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Broncos vs 49ers
This is a fascinating game that I don't have a great read on from a spread perspective.
The 49ers have proven very little by beating the Cardinals and Dolphins, while the Broncos were awful against the Chiefs and struggled early against the Jaguars and Rams.
We know about the 49ers' injury issues, but can Denver actually take advantage?
The 49ers having no healthy wide receivers kind of wastes Denver's elite corners. Meanwhile, the Broncos can't run on San Francisco's banged-up defensive line, and utilizing a quick-passing game completely neutralizes the 49ers' pass rush advantage.
Denver's run defense ranks in the bottom five in DVOA, which would normally mean an auto-bet on Kyle Shanahan -2.5. Kenneth Walker gashed them for 23 carries and 173 yards, and then Kyren Williams and Bhayshul Tuten combined for 153 in the next two games.
But with Christian McCaffrey looking like a relatively average pure runner right now, I think this is going to be a Kaelon Black game, much like the opener against the Rams. He is a powerful runner between the tackles who can protect the offensive line and run right at the defensive front.
Black's snaps have steadily decreased (28, 17, 8), as have his rush attempts (14, 7, 4), which looks bad on the surface. But context matters: Week 2 against Miami was a blowout where Jordan James played late, and in Week 3 against Arizona, San Francisco's defense was on the field for 39 minutes.
Denver's opponents have given its RB2s 8, 6, and 6 carries this season. If Black gets six carries at four yards a carry, he hits this over. He has cleared 22.5 yards in two of three games, and even with only eight snaps last week, he missed by just six yards.
And if we're right that it's a Kaelon Black game, every extra couple carries hits another step on the escalator from there.
The bet: Kaelon Black Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-113 at DraftKings)
Escalator bets: Black 40+ Rushing Yards (+306 at DraftKings) / 50+ Rushing Yards (+560 at DraftKings) / 60+ Rushing Yards (+960 at DraftKings)
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Chargers vs Seahawks
Shall we try to catch the falling knife that is the Chargers?
It is incredibly tough to invest in Mike McDaniel's offense against this Mike Macdonald defense. The Chargers have scored between 14 and 16 points in all three games this year against Arizona, Vegas, and Buffalo.
The Chargers' offensive line against Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy is a terrifying mismatch. However, I am not totally in love with Seattle's offense either.
The Seahawks can't run the ball at all, ranking 30th in rush DVOA while Jadarian Price struggles with fumbling issues. Sam Darnold made huge mistakes last week, and the entire offense essentially boils down to Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Last year, the Chargers only allowed two receivers to cross the 100-yard mark, and both were big, physical receivers — not an underneath technician like JSN. The Los Angeles defense is quietly coming around with cornerback Tarheeb Still, safety Genesis Smith, and linebacker Del'Shawn Phillips.
This game sets up as a Kitchen Sink Part II spot.
Since the expansion to a 17-game schedule and 14 playoff teams in 2021, 0-3 teams facing an opponent opponent over .500 in Week 4 are 7-0 ATS, covering by an average of 6.4 points per game (and winning 4-3 straight up). Only one of those seven teams lost by more than four points, and that team was a 14.5-point underdog.
Seattle had six one-score wins last year; this year, the Seahawks won a game by three and were only up on Arizona by 10 points in the fourth quarter before some late-game goofiness.
This is just the wrong side of the key number, and I want the hook.
The bet: Chargers +7.5 (-115 at Fanatics)
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Lions vs Panthers
Sunday night brings us our first of three straight primetime NFC South games for some reason. I'm not convinced Lions–Panthers will be competitive, but there should be plenty of points.
Both secondaries are completely ravaged by injuries. We know about Detroit's issues, but Carolina might be in an even worse spot after losing its top two cornerbacks — Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson.
I don't know if the Carolina offense is real, so I am passing on the side, but the Lions should score with ease. Amon-Ra St. Brown should crush, and this could be a big game for Tetairoa McMillan with Detroit struggling against WR1s.
But I'm buying a lottery ticket on this finally being the Jameson Williams breakout game.
He has just 10 catches for 127 yards so far, rendering him mostly a non-factor through three weeks. However, he is still playing 87% of the snaps; he just hasn't hit an explosive play yet.
Over the last two seasons, Williams has never gone more than three straight games below 66 receiving yards. Last year, he had seven games below 66 yards (all 43 yards or below, with six of those resulting in two catches or fewer).
In his other 10 games, he hit 66+ yards, logged 4+ catches in all but one, scored a touchdown in 7 of 10, and averaged 96.5 yards.
You do not want median outcomes with Jameson Williams. He is an all-or-nothing player. Over 3.5 receptions is a crazy line, but if he hits that, his yardage and touchdown upside skyrockets. Over 50.5 yards is no-man's land.
We are building a Sunday Night Football escalator.
Williams hit 70+ yards in 8 of 17 games last year. When he hits 70 yards, he frequently finds paydirt too. And in his seven career games with 100+ yards, he has scored a touchdown in all seven of them.
These markets are highly correlated, and we are getting outrageous prices.
The bet: Jameson Williams 70+ Receiving Yards (+194 at FanDuel)
Escalator bets: Williams 70+ Receiving Yards & Anytime TD (+515 at Fanatics) / 100+ Receiving Yards & Anytime TD (+1000 at Fanatics)
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Week 5 Lookahead: Vikings vs Saints
The Vikings should crush the Dolphins as big home favorites this weekend. Meanwhile, the Saints play Monday Night Football against Atlanta, and I am very worried about New Orleans' poor run defense dealing with Bijan Robinson and that offensive line.
If the Saints lose, it is hard to see this line not reaching -3 (it is already -2.5 at DraftKings). I make it Vikings -3.5.
Minnesota's improved rushing attack will likely gash New Orleans, and Brian Flores' defense will relentlessly pressure a weak offensive line and exploit Tyler Shough's poor pocket presence.
The Saints are on a short week, while the Vikings can empty the tank before heading into their bye. Since 2021, road favorites of less than a touchdown in Weeks 5 and 6 are 39-16 ATS (71%).
Grab this before it crosses the key number.
Week 5 Lookahead Pick: Vikings -1.5 (FanDuel)
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