Bears vs Giants Odds Picks, Prediction for Week 4

Bears vs Giants Odds Picks, Prediction for Week 4 article feature image

Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Fields.

  • The Bears are road underdogs this week against the Giants.
  • Don't expect high-powered offense this game, which has the lowest over/under of the week.
  • Cody Goggin previews the matchup and lays out his betting pick below.

Bears vs. Giants Odds

Sunday, Sept. 29
1 p.m. ET
Bears Odds
-110o / -110u
Giants Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Most of America will not be tuning into this game, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t money to be made.

The Bears and Giants will face off in a battle between teams with likely top five picks in next year’s NFL Draft, but one side does have a playmaker that I think can make a difference.

Bears vs. Giants Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bears and Giants match up statistically:

Bears vs. Giants DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA2828
Pass DVOA3225
Rush DVOA628
Overall DVOA2011
Pass DVOA2510
Rush DVOA1122

The main story around the Bears’ struggles this season has been the lack of development from Justin Fields. He currently has the worst PFF passing grade (38.0) of any quarterback in the league that has played at least 20% of their team’s snaps.

Most of his issues stem from holding onto the ball too long. Fields has been sacked 18.2% of the time this season. This is 5.8% more than the next most-sacked quarterback. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Fields has the second highest time to throw in the league this season. The only quarterback holding onto the ball longer is Daniel Jones.

Fields will have to get rid of the ball quicker and throw more this week in order to win, but playing the Giants defense may be just the cure he needs. The three teams that the Bears have faced this season all rank in the top eight in the league in PFF pass rushing grade and all three are also in the top half of the league in pressure rate. The Giants rank 30th in pass rush grade and may struggle even more than usual this weekend.

This is because their high-dollar pass rusher Leonard Williams has already been ruled out this week. Williams has been the top pass rusher on this team for the last couple of years and they will miss his presence.

Thankfully for the Giants, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari both made their season debuts last season, so they won’t be completely devoid of talent  on the edges. The tackle spots are where Chicago has been best at pass blocking this year so far. Keeping Fields away from interior pressure will be crucial.

David Montgomery has been ruled out again, so Fields will likely need to throw more this week. Second-year back Khalil Herbert did impress last weekend while filling in for Montgomery, totaling 157 yards and two touchdowns en route to the Bears’ second win of the season.

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Offensively, Daniel Jones isn’t in a good situation. He has already been holding onto the ball too long and now he’ll be missing a lot of his receiving talent. Unfortunately we all saw Sterling Shepard go down with a season-ending injury in the waning moments of Monday Night Football, but he’s not the only one. Speedsters Wandale Robinson and Kadarius Toney have already been ruled out, in addition to Collin Johnson who was placed on injured reserve during the preseason.

This leaves New York with a healthy wide-receiving corps of David Sills V, Richie James, Kenny Golladay, and Darius Slayton, who has been a healthy scratch in two of the Giants’ games and has not yet recorded a catch this season.

Golladay has publicly shown his frustration and didn’t record a catch on Monday night while he did have a costly drop. The absence of these top receivers certainly won’t help Jones and will likely just cause him to hold onto the ball even longer than he already does or force turnover-worthy throws.

The Bears’ defense hasn’t been good at anything either. They rank 28th in PFF defensive grades and are in the bottom 10 in each run defense, pass rush, and coverage grades.

Chicago did get some good news as Roquan Smith was removed from the injury report with the quad injury he was dealing with and will be playing. One note to keep an eye on is that edge rusher Robert Quinn was added to the injury report on Friday with an illness.

If he’s unable to go, that will certainly impact this unit that is missing Jaylon Johnson in the secondary and will need to get home with the pass rush.

Betting Picks

To be frank, there’s a reason why this game has a total of 39.5 points with the home team being favored by the traditional home field advantage value.

Both of these teams are among the worst in the league and the margin between the two is small. However, I do think that Fields will be better throwing the ball this weekend and will face less pressure against the Giants, particularly with Leonard Williams sidelined.

At a neutral site, my own model has the Bears by 2.5 points so it believes that this line should be close to even. I’ll take the Bears at the key number of three and would bet them down as low as +2.

Bet Bears +3 at FanDuel | Bet to Bears +2

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