The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams meet in the Week 1 Edition of NFL Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:35 p.m. ET at Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne, Australia. The game will broadcast live on Netflix.
The Rams are favored by -4 on the spread over the 49ers, with the over/under set at 48.5 total points. The Rams are -205 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while the 49ers are +170 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my 49ers vs Rams predictions in my Thursday Night Football preview.
49ers vs Rams Prediction
- 49ers vs Rams Pick: 49ers +4.5 (Play to +4)
My 49ers vs Rams best bet is on San Francisco to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
49ers vs Rams Odds
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -102 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +176 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -120 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -210 |
49ers vs Rams Thursday Night Football Preview
The Rams have the most talented starting lineup in the NFL, which makes it difficult to argue against their status as Super Bowl favorites, but their odd travel arrangements in combination with their history facing off with their long-time divisional rival — the 49ers — have me wary this is the spot to back them.
Under head coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers lead the all-time series 11-7 over the Sean McVay-led Rams during their regular-season matchups. Dating back to 2022, only one of the previous seven games has been decided by more than one possession.
The Rams’ 42-26 victory in November of last season marked the single time this particular matchup wasn’t highly competitive in recent memory. However, the 49ers played that game without two critical leaders on their squad in Brock Purdy and Fred Warner.
The system in place that Shanahan has implemented seems to thrive no matter which players are leading the charge. Despite a revolving door of pass catchers last year, and the worst rushing efficiency of the Shanahan era, the 49ers offense finished third in the NFL in success rate.
Furthermore, when Purdy returned to the lineup from injury in Week 11, he arguably played the best football of his career to date. Purdy completed over 70% of his throws from that point forward and consistently attacked defenses downfield, completing a league-high 61% of his attempts traveling 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage.
The additions of Mike Evans and rookie De’Zhaun Stribling will undoubtedly unlock even more opportunities to create advantageous avenues to exploit all areas of the field.
The Rams offense led by MVP Matthew Stafford is coming off a historically efficient season. The rushing attack also ranked league-best in both EPA/rush and success rate.
The 49ers' defensive front may not be at full strength at this point without the services of Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams, but there are reasons for optimism that they can at least make life difficult for Kyren Williams and Blake Corum.
Warner will once again command the middle of the field and he will welcome back his former running mate Dre Greenlaw to the linebacker corps. Warner and Greenlaw ranked within the top 10 at their position in defending the run, per Pro Football Focus.
The 49ers also traded for defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa, who is a proven and reliable disruptor on the line’s interior.
I expect the Rams to establish themselves as one of the league’s best teams this season, but there is reason to believe a ramp-up period is in store.
Both Puka Nacua and Myles Garrett have been dealing with injuries, and while it could be completely silly to doubt either elite talent, if either is limited in their role in any capacity, it could truly affect the outcome of this game.
It is also worth noting the Rams have rarely been firing on all cylinders to begin their regular-season campaigns. Los Angeles is just 2-2 in season openers over the last four years, which includes a win to open its season a year ago that saw them score only 14 points.
49ers vs Rams Prediction, Betting Analysis
I’d be lying if I said the Rams' decision to travel so close to game time isn’t contributing to the handicap in this spot. Traveling across the globe to Australia certainly has to be difficult for any team, but making the trip a day before kickoff seems reckless.
This, in combination with several other data points mentioned, make it easy to envision another closely contested divisional clash.
These teams have split their last 10 matchups when it comes to covering the spread, with the underdog often being the right side as they have stayed within the number in seven of those games. As the game approaches, the best course of action may be to stay patient as bettors are lining up to bet the Super Bowl favorites in their opening game.
It is key to grab the Niners at +4.5, which is starting to show in several markets — play this number at -115 or better, otherwise, take the +4 at -110 or better.
Pick: 49ers +4.5 (-115; Play to +4 at -110; bet365)
