The NFL hits Australia for Thursday Night Football between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams. Kickoff for this NFC West clash from Melbourne Cricket Ground is set for 8:35 p.m. ET. The game will be streamed on Netflix.
The Rams are 3.5-point favorites over the 49ers on the spread (Rams -3.5), with the over/under set at 48.5. Los Angeles is a -198 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while San Francisco is a +166 underdog.
Continue below for our 49ers vs Rams picks for Thursday Night Football, which include two predictions for the spread and three player props.
49ers vs Rams Picks & Predictions
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
49ers vs Rams Odds
- 49ers vs Rams Moneyline: 49ers +166, Rams -198
- 49ers vs Rams Total: 48.5 (-105o / -115u)
- 49ers vs Rams Spread: 49ers +3.5 (-108), Rams -3.5 (-112)
For the latest from sportsbooks nationwide, check out VegasInsider's NFL Week 1 Odds & Action Report.
49ers vs Rams 1st Half Spread Prediction
It's our first ever game in Australia, and it's a huge NFC West divisional battle to kick things off Friday or Thursday or whenever they're playing this game.
Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay know each other well, and these games always always end up close. The Rams have won four of the last five meetings with an overtime loss the mark against, but the 49ers had won nine of the previous 10 with just one overtime loss before that.
The theme here is consistent, close games, with five of the last six matchups decided by one score.
I don't trust the 49ers over 18 games and a playoff run because we know so many of the stars on this team will likely end up injured at some point, but for right now, just about every key 49er is healthy and playing. That means this team is probably a touch underrated in the market right now, even if I'm staying away from San Francisco futures long term.
San Francisco's defense is the weak link on paper, but Shanahan's offense has consistently moved the ball well against the Rams.
Last year even with Mac Jones starting both matchups, the 49ers moved the ball with relative ease, especially passing. The 49ers offense can be every bit as good as the Rams when healthy.
A few Week 1 trends back the 49ers here.
Division underdogs since 2015 are 64% against the spread (ATS), and road or neutral underdogs under seven are 65% ATS in Week 1 or 2 since 2019.
There's also the Australia of it all.
The 49ers traveled west a whole week before the Rams as the teams took very different strategies. There are arguments both directions for who this will work best for, as the Rams arrive with little time to acclimate to the time change before kickoff.
The guess here is that helps San Francisco in this particular game, having had time to settle into Australia, though it will hurt the 49ers more in the weeks ahead since it's a bigger adjustment back.
The Rams will barely even have time to settle in and thus the transition back may not be as tough, but it could make this game itself a tougher task.
And as good as the Rams can be this season, remember that there's no Aaron Donald in this game, and we also haven't seen this incredible Rams offense yet in the preseason.
Matthew Stafford didn't play last preseason either, and struggled starting the season, failing to score a single point until finally finding the end zone a minute before halftime in Week 1. They failed to cover that first half, and that's a trend for quarterbacks that sit out the preseason.
By my count, teams with rusty QBs that didn't play in the preseason are now just 3-15 ATS (17%) in the first half of Week 1 over the last three years.
I'll back the 49ers to get on the front foot early as the more settled-in team in Australia while Stafford and the Rams shake off the rust and try to find their way back into the game.
Give me Niners 1H +2.5, and obviously look for a +3 out there if you can find the key number.
Pick: 49ers 1st Half +2.5 (+100)
49ers vs Rams Spread Pick (Full Game)
By Billy Ward
There’s all kinds of storylines surrounding the NFC West matchup between the Rams and the 49ers, many of which have serious betting implications.
This is the first NFL game in Australia, with the two teams taking drastically different approaches to travel. Like Brandon mentioned above, the 49ers spent more than a week acclimating while the Rams landed roughly 24 hours before game time.
Conventional wisdom suggests that a longer period to adjust is better, but there’s some evidence the Rams' approach is superior, in part because the game is being played early in the morning Australia time – so keeping the players' circadian rhythm on West Coast time actually gets them closer to a normal start time. The Rams used a similar approach last year in London, resulting in a win over the Jaguars.
The other key factor at play here is San Francisco's injuries.
As has become a recurring theme, the 49ers continue to struggle with health, losing wide receivers Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk over the summer, rotational defensive lineman Alfred Collins since landing in Australia (they have electric substations down under too, apparently) and dealing with questionable tags on stars George Kittle and Nick Bosa, both of whom are likely to play but be less than 100%.
While the Rams' futures odds are based somewhat on the return of Aaron Donald – who didn’t travel to Australia – they’re still the most talented roster in the league, healthier, and potentially with a travel-based edge.
That’s enough for me to lay 3.5 points at -110, though I wouldn’t fault anyone for buying a point to get the spread less than a field goal at -170 or even laying the -198 moneyline.
Pick: Rams -3.5 (-110)
Christian McCaffrey Props: Receptions
By Brit Devine
In two games last season against this Rams, Christian McCaffrey had checks notes 16 receptions, with exactly eight in each game.
The Rams defense is even better than last season, with the addition of Myles Garrett on the edge and a tandem of new CBs to keep outside WRs in check.
I doubt we see much success on the ground from McCaffrey in this one — he was held to a total of 87 rushing yards in those two games from last season.
All of this points to a big workload in the passing game yet again, as Brock Purdy getting the ball out quickly to weapons not lined up on the outside at WR should be a big focal point of the 49ers offense.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions (-102)
Christian McCaffrey Props: Rush Attempts
By Nick Galaida
As Brit alluded to above, there has been a clear and obvious organizational focus on finding ways to monitor the volume for McCaffrey this season.
The 49ers' star running back had a career-high 311 carries in the regular season last year — he has already dealt with "general soreness" and "tightness" that caused him to miss some time during practice in August.
San Francisco's coaching staff has spoken highly of rookie running back Kaelon Black throughout the offseason. The 49ers have also alluded to utilizing Deebo Samuel out of the backfield in certain situations.
McCaffrey seems likely to have his carries monitored in this game, with the team prioritizing his availability on passing downs.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Under 16.5 Rush Attempts (-130)
49ers vs Rams Anytime TD Pick
There has been a massive amount of change to the 49ers offense not only in the offseason with signings, but over the years due to injuries.
Both Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel were added in the offseason but Ricky Pearsall is out for the season. Despite constantly rotating players in and out last season, the 49ers were generally able to put up points.
The Rams have a bolstered defense with several big offseason additions, but based on the total for this game (48.5), the 49ers should be able to put up points.
Samuel has been a touchdown threat his entire career, scoring 21 TDs on the ground and 27 as a receiver over 97 career games. I expect Shanahan to use him not only a good amount in the passing game, but also in the rushing game with his power and speed.
We've seen Shanahan use him heavily in the red zone in the past and I don't see any reason for that to change.
Pick: Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown Scorer (Yes — 20% on Polymarket)
