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NFL Week 6 kicks off with an inter-conference matchup on Thursday Night Football between the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Seahawks vs. Broncos will stream live tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
Continue below for my Broncos vs Seahawks parlay, which includes a first-half total along with props for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Emanuel Wilson, Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, and RJ Harvey. We're going big this week.
Broncos vs Seahawks Parlay
- 1H Under 20.5 Points (-120)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 92.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Emanuel Wilson Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
- Bo Nix Under 197.5 Passing Yards (-113)
- RJ Harvey Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Courtland Sutton Under 31.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Odds via FanDuel are subject to change*
Broncos vs Seahawks Odds
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 40.5 -115o / -105u | -146 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 40.5 -115o / -105u | +124 |
Broncos vs Seahawks Preview
I'm starting my Broncos vs. Seahawks SGP with the 1st Half Under 20.5., which happens to be Sean Koerner's betting pick for TNF.
With how much Denver's offense is struggling, it's going to be tough for them to move the ball against an elite Seahawks defense on a short week.
Broncos games have consistently gotten off to slow starts, with only one of five getting to 21+ points this season.
Next up, I'll add Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 92.5 Receiving Yards.
Despite dealing with an ankle issue, Smith-Njigba does not carry an injury designation for this game, so it's all systems go. We've seen him surpass 100 receiving yards in four of five games this season.
Last week, without Pat Surtain II, the Broncos played more zone coverage, going from 27th to 13th in usage. JSN has crushed zone this year, putting up 5.16 yards per route run (YPRR).
The third leg features Emanuel Wilson Over 66.5 Rushing Yards.
Wilson's done a good job filling in as the Seahawks' lead back with Jadarian Price sidelined, getting heavy volume with 20+ carries in three of his last four games.
The Broncos have struggled in rush defense, ranking 28th in EPA. With the Seahawks as 2.5-point favorites, there's a good chance they play with the lead, meaning more rushing volume for Wilson.
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We'll fade the Broncos' passing game by going Bo Nix Under 197.5 Passing Yards.
Nix is averaging only 188.4 passing yards per game and 5.8 yards per attempt. The Seahawks are second in Dropback EPA and fourth in Dropback Success Rate.
Each QB the Seahawks have faced so far has been held below 190 yards, so 197.5 is a nice number for us here.
The second-to-last leg features RJ Harvey Over 20.5 Receiving Yards.
He's gone over this number in three of four games this season. He had only one target last week, but that was with 41.4% route participation, which is right at his season-long norms.
In other words, there wasn't a change in usage; he just didn't see the ball. This is a good spot vs. the Seahawks, who run zone coverage at the highest rate. Harvey vs. zone: 2.77 YPRR.
Last but not least is Courtland Sutton Under 31.5 Receiving Yards.
The Seahawks are allowing the third-fewest receiving yards to wideouts this season. Sutton has gone under this number in four of five games.
I mentioned how Seattle runs zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. Well, Sutton really struggles vs. zone, putting up 1.02 YPRR.
To sum it up, we're betting on a low-scoring game, with Seahawks usage funneled towards JSN and Wilson. On the Broncos' side, we're expecting a sloppy offensive performance, with Harvey peppered with checkdowns from Nix and Sutton limited downfield.
Broncos vs Seahawks Same-Game Parlay
- 1H Under 20.5 Points(-120)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 92.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Emanuel Wilson Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
- Bo Nix Under 197.5 Passing Yards (-113)
- RJ Harvey Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Courtland Sutton Under 31.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
