The Denver Broncos host the Seattle Seahawks tonight for NFL Thursday Night Football in Week 6. Kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. TNF will stream on Prime Video.
The Seahawks are favored by 2.5 points on the spread over the Broncos; the over/under is 40.5 points. The Seahawks are -142 favorites on the moneyline and the Broncos are +120 underdogs.
Continue below for our Seahawks vs Broncos picks for Thursday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, over/under, and two player props.
Seahawks vs Broncos Picks, Props
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Seahawks vs Broncos Odds
- Seahawks vs Broncos Moneyline: Seahawks -142, Broncos +120
- Seahawks vs Broncos Total: 40.5
- Seahawks vs Broncos Spread: Seahawks -2.5, Broncos +2.5
TNF odds via FanDuel — for the latest from sportsbooks nationwide, check out VegasInsider's NFL Week 6 Odds & Action Report.
Seahawks vs Broncos Spread Prediction
The Broncos and Seahawks battle tonight in what projects to be a low-scoring affair.
It is unlikely the Denver offense can fix its ailments on a short week. Bo Nix has not played well this season and his unwillingness to push the ball downfield has limited this unit.
Nix has a deep-throw percentage of just 7.4% and a check-down rate of 13%. This has caused his air yards per attempt to decrease significantly from his career average of 7.3 to just 5.6.
His lack of aggressiveness and overall effectiveness has translated to the Broncos’ offense explosive play rate to be one of the league’s worst. There is very little chance of this changing against a Seahawks defense that ranks second in the NFL in explosive plays allowed. Their 8.6 yards per completion allowed is the best in the NFL through five weeks.
The Denver defense will be without star cornerback Patrick Surtain once again. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph opted to use a much more zone-centric gameplan a week ago without the services of the former Defensive Player of the Year — decreasing their man coverage rate to just 11%.
Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold has historically been more effective against zone coverage during his career in terms of sustained success and fewer turnover-worthy plays. Darnold’s volatile nature is usually accompanied by an opponent that can play man coverage on the back-end while sending additional blitzers — something he shouldn’t have to navigate much at all tonight.
Darnold has played well in primetime spots since his career resurrection and the Seahawks have been excellent on the road under head coach Mike McDonald. I will happily lay the points here against a reeling Broncos offense.
Pick: Seahawks -2.5
Seahawks vs Broncos Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
The Broncos and the Seahawks are both top-10 defenses by DVOA and surprisingly bottom-half offenses, with Seattle checking in at No. 22.
The problem for Seattle has been the running game, with first-round rookie Jadarian Price — as well as Zach Charbonnet — both out heading into Week 6.
That’s a bigger problem than usual for two reasons.
One, the Seahawks are favored (and I’d favor them by more than 2.5). That means they’re likely to skew run heavy as they play with a lead, especially against Denver’s top-10 passing defense. Two, Seattle's already a run-first team, ranking 26th in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) despite being far more efficient through the air.
That means a game Seattle controls likely plays very slow and low scoring. The only way for this to go over is if Denver pushes the scoring, which feels unlikely against Seattle’s elite defense. Denver also ranks well below average in PROE and neutral pace, which lowers the chance of a shootout.
I’ll take the under 40.5 of -105 at FanDuel (at the time of writing), but I would hold off if the line continues to drop and moves below 40.
If you wanted to get fancy, an SGP of the first half over and the game under is +575, and if you throw in Seattle’s first-half moneyline it jumps to +1100. That’s my favorite way to play it, as I see the visitors being more aggressive in the first half before bleeding clock in the second.
Pick: Under 40.5 (-105)
RJ Harvey Receptions Props
I’m always looking to play RB receptions against Seattle because Mike Macdonald’s defense seems more than happy to concede them.
Seattle has allowed the fifth-most RB receptions this season with over five per game. That was the case last season, too, when Seattle allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs but the most RB receptions. That included 4+ RB catches in all but three games, with 6+ in 10 of them and 7+ in almost half.
That sounds like RJ Harvey’s music to me.
Harvey is one of the most obvious tells on the planet right now, with 76% of his snaps coming on pass plays. He’s become Bo Nix’s dump-off security blanket, especially as Nix seems reticent to run this season after injury he suffered in the playoffs. That could be especially important against a ferocious Seahawks pass rush that could have Nix on his heels all night.
Harvey didn’t have a catch or even a target last week, but that shouldn’t be a surprise in a game where Denver finally played with a lead for the first time all season.
If you expect Seattle to win or lead here, that puts Denver in passing situations and should mean Harvey catches. Outside of last week’s dud, Harvey is averaging 6.7 catches for 44 receiving yards this season with games of 4, 6, and 10 catches.
The YPC is terrible, and that’s the usual for Seattle defensively too, so I want receptions not yards. Including the playoffs, Harvey has 4+ catches in nine of his last 11 games, with 5+ in almost half.
I’ll play Harvey over 3.5 receptions at -105 (MGM) and build a small escalator with 5+ catches at +203 (Kalshi), 6+ at +375 (Hard Rock), and 8+ at +1400 (Hard Rock).
Pick: RJ Harvey Over 3.5 Receptions (-108)
Escalators: 5+ Receptions (+203; Kalshi) | 6+ Receptions (+375; Hard Rock) | 8+ Receptions (+1400; Hard Rock)
Seahawks vs Broncos Anytime Touchdown Pick
I get the matchup against the Broncos is a tough one, but considering how essential he is to the Seahawks offense, there's no way Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be priced like this.
Smith-Njigba has been unreal this season with seven touchdowns and 583 receiving yards in five games. He's topped 100 yards in four of five games and is heavily targeted no matter who his quarterback is.
Also helping Smith-Njigba's cause tonight is the fact that Broncos CB Patrick Surtain is out again.
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime Touchdown (Yes — 47% at Polymarket)
