Jaguars vs Panthers Prediction & Pick: NFL Week 17

Jaguars vs Panthers odds have Jacksonville as 4-point favorites on the spread with a game total over/under of 36.5. I'll be targeting the point spread for my Jaguars vs Panthers prediction & pick for NFL Week 17.

Carolina is 2-12, but it seems like the Panthers are finally hitting their stride. Two weeks ago, the Panthers took down Atlanta and last week, they almost completed a fourth-quarter comeback against the Packers.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars have crumbled lately and are riding a four-game losing streak. Despite this bad run, the Jaguars have an 81% chance of making the playoffs with a win over the Panthers — granted, they'll have to do it without Trevor Lawrence, who is out with a shoulder injury.

Pick: Jaguars -3.5 (Play to -5.5)

Bet Jacksonville at FanDuel With QuickSlip!

If this is the game the Jaguars bounce back, they'll have to do so without their franchise quarterback as Trevor Lawrence is out and C.J. Beathard is in.

On its face, this sounds like bad news. However, given Lawerence’s recent play, this could be an upgrade. Lawrence has a quarterback rating of 71.5 with five touchdowns and five interceptions in his last three games.

Meanwhile, Beathard showed some promise when he stepped in last week as he completed 11-of-15 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. There was an element of stat inflation due to garbage time as he came in when Jacksonville was down 30-6, but whenever a backup steps in, teams looks for any reason to be optimistic.

With a backup quarterback starting, Jacksonville will have to rediscover its running game. In its last four games, the Jaguars have averaged 60.3 rushing yards. In their first 11, the Jaguars averaged 106.2 rushing yards per game.

Defensively, this team has been reliant on turnovers all year. The Jaguars rank 20th in points per game allowed, but are third turnovers forced per game. Unfortunately, turnovers are unstable week-to-week and since the bye, they haven't been there.

Prior to the bye, Jacksonville averaged 2.3 turnovers per game. Since the bye, they are down to 1.0.

Access the tools used by pro bettors

Sharpest bets for every game

Our model's biggest weekly edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

Turn PRO Now!

Carolina's improved play has largely been driven by defense.

Carolina’s splits before and after the bye show a night-and-day difference. Before the bye, the Panthers allowed 31 points and 342 yards per game. Since the bye, those numbers are down to 21.7 points and 267 yards per game.

The Panthers offense is coming off their best game of the year, in large part thanks to Bryce Young’s best game this season. The Panthers scored a season-high 30 points and had 394 yards of total offense. Young showed an excellent combination of playmaking and precision. Hopefully, Young can continue that success over the next couple games and provide something to build on over the offseason.

The passing game flashed last week, but the Panthers' bread and butter has been the run game. In their last six games, Carolina has averaged 128 rushing yards per game. This will be a battle of strength against strength as Jacksonville’s run defense ranks 10th in yards per carry allowed, but 26th in net yards per pass allowed.

This year we've seen several backup quarterbacks flash, especially in their first few weeks. Joe Flacco, Joshua Dobbs and Jake Browning all stepped and played well early in their tenure as a spot starter.

I am going to trust Beathard to continue that trend. He is a long-time veteran who has been in the Jaguars' system for three years. He still has a lead receiver in Calvin Ridley and a security blanket in Evan Engram.

The Panthers have played much better recently, but it's hard to trust that moving forward. Also, this is close to a must-win for Jacksonville. The Jaguars need at least one more win if they want to be in the playoffs and a road matchup against Tennessee in Week 18 will be a much tougher task.