The Carolina Panthers (1-2) and New England Patriots (1-2) will face off in NFL Week 4. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Patriots are 5.5-point favorites over the Panthers on the spread (Patriots -5.5), with the over/under set at 43.5 total points. New England is a -250 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Carolina is +205 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Panthers vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, September 28.
Panthers vs Patriots Prediction
- Panthers vs Patriots pick: Patriots -5.5 (-110)
My Patriots vs. Panthers best bet is on New England to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Panthers vs Patriots Odds
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
Panthers vs Patriots NFL Week 4 Preview
This is a good spot to buy in on the Patriots at home against the Panthers in Week 4.
The Patriots were bound to struggle coming into the season, with almost an entire new team and coaching staff compared to the last few years. They've been sloppy in their first few games, but there's also been some bad luck.
Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong for the Patriots last week, with five turnovers and two fumbles near the goal line in a 21-14 loss to Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers.
So, there's been some bad plays. There have been some mistakes. Some of their guys haven't been on the same page so far. But I think that will continue to get better. And in the meantime, their offense has moved the ball every week, ranked 11th in the league in total yardage at 346 yards per game.
Granted, the Patriots haven't been tested much by opposing defenses, with two of their three matchups coming against the Dolphins and Raiders. However, that should still be a pretty good indicator of what to expect this week, given the Panthers' defense is just as bad as the aforementioned groups.
The Patriots moved the ball up and down the field in their first two games, yet they only rank 21st in scoring at 20 points per game. The points should come eventually; it's just natural regression to the mean. This is a team with a bunch of new players and a new coaching staff. So, it's no surprise that it's taking them a few games to settle in and get comfortable.
The Panthers are coming off a game where everything snowballed on the Falcons. Underdogs coming off a shutout win are 15-26-2 against the spread in the last 43 instances. Last year, they won against the Raiders in Week 3, and then didn't win again for quite some time.
Panthers vs Patriots Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm laying the points with the Patriots against Carolina this week.
If you remove turnovers and just look at non-garbage time, the Patriots offense ranks seventh in EPA per play and 12th in success rate.
Meanwhile, the Panthers' offense ranks 28th in EPA per play and 30th in success rate. Also, consider the fact that the Panthers were down 17 points late against Arizona and then managed to pad the stat sheet in that game.
The Patriots' biggest issue has been their new pieces on the offensive line, but the Panthers' defensive front struggles to generate pressure. So, that shouldn't be a huge concern. Carolina is 28th in pass block win rate on the defensive side.
The injury report is also a concern for the Panthers in this spot. They are down multiple offensive linemen. Their wide receiver room is banged up. Meanwhile, the Patriots will get back Christian Gonzalez for this contest.
The Patriots should be able to control the line of scrimmage in this game. I'm taking New England -5.5 on the spread.
Pick: Patriots -5.5 (-110)
Spread
My Patriots vs. Panthers betting prediction is on New England to cover the spread at -5.5.
Moneyline
I prefer the Patriots -5.5 as opposed to the moneyline market in this matchup.
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from the total in this spot.
