We made it! Two regular season games are already in the books for the new NFL season, and it is good to be back.
I normally like to tiptoe a little bit into Week 1, but this year, there is no tiptoeing. We are running straight into the water — though perhaps limiting unit size with so much unknown.
We are going to look at my favorite spreads, totals, escalators, and mineshaft bets for the Week 1 slate to maximize our ROI.
Let's get into my NFL Week 1 Mega-Preview, as well as a lookahead bet for next week.
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NFL Week 1 Props & Parlays
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Buccaneers vs Bengals
This is an early test for two of my more intriguing playoff-contender teams.
Bengals -3.5 feels heavy; the Bucs are very live here. We have the highest total on the board, meaning plenty of scoring, and we are targeting two of the worst tight-end defenses in the NFL.
Cincinnati allowed the most tight end fantasy points in the league in each of the last two seasons. The Bengals' sophomore linebackers, Demetrius Knight and Barrett Carter, are a real weak spot. Tampa Bay isn't much better, finishing top-seven in most tight-end points allowed for three straight years — a classic Todd Bowles weakness.
The first prop I played all year was Bengals tight end Erick All Jr. He caught my eye during camp as Cincinnati's true do-everything tight end. He can block, he can catch, and he is an every-down guy. He is finally healthy after missing all of last season.
In his nine games as a rookie, All had two or more catches seven times, racking up 20+ yards in five of those. He had four catches in two of his three games with 30+ snaps.
Tampa Bay allowed two or more catches to a tight end 20 times last year (including 11 times in their final eight games) and allowed four or more catches 11 times.
I think books are badly underestimating how much All will be part of this Cincinnati offense this season.
Erick All Escalator: Over 1.5 Receptions (+145 at bet365), 20+ Receiving Yards (+230 at bet365), 3+ Receptions (+475 at bet365), 4+ Receptions (+1200 at bet365)
On the other side, Cade Otton had all but two tight end catches for Tampa Bay last season. The Bengals allowed a staggering 116 tight-end receptions last year (6.8 per game), most in the NFL, yielding six or more catches to the position in 12 of 17 games.
Otton tends to be more of an all-or-nothing guy.
Over the last two years, he had three or fewer catches in 15 of 30 games. That's half, and it means the line at 3.5 receptions doesn't have much standalone value.
But Otton also had eight games with 6+ catches (including games of 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, and 9). So I'll skip the median outcomes and attack the Otton alternate lines.
You can play both TEs together if you want to build a juicy parlay.
Cade Otton Escalator: 6+ Receptions (+650 at bet365), 7+ Receptions (+1280 at DraftKings), 8+ Receptions (+2300 at DraftKings)
Dolphins vs Raiders
This is the grossest game on the slate — but sometimes the games nobody's watching are where we find the best value.
These two units ranked 31st (Vegas) and 32nd (Miami) in my preseason defense rankings.
The Raiders don't have much talent outside of Maxx Crosby and will sorely miss Patrick Graham calling the plays. Miami ranked 32nd with a bullet, trotting out a defense with the least talent in the league and leaning heavily on four rookies. Both secondaries are terrible and ripe for the picking.
Klint Kubiak’s offense was ripping off big runs in the preseason, Ashton Jeanty is a go, and Kirk Cousins can hurt this secondary, even without Brock Bowers. It's trickier for Miami, but I'm intrigued by OC Bobby Slowik’s rushing attack built around Malik Willis.
Historically, Week 1-5 overs with a total between 36 and 41 hit at a 57% clip. Indoor totals between 32 and 41 are 92-59-3 (61%) to the over before December. Hold your nose and bet the over.
The bet: Over 39.5 (FanDuel)
If we think both teams can move the ball, we should probably invest in the player props as well.
It only makes sense for Slowik to build this offense around Willis' legs. When Slowik was with the 49ers, he worked closely with Trey Lance, who averaged 12 carries for 60 yards in his three full starts.
In Willis' five NFL starts since his debut, he recorded rushing totals of 40, 43, 41, 73, and 60 yards on just 7.2 attempts per game (a 51-yard average).
The Raiders faced three "running" quarterbacks last year (Marcus Mariota, Jalen Hurts, and Jaxson Dart), and that trio averaged 42 rushing yards per game against them.
Willis has also rushed for four touchdowns over his last four starts, and the Raiders allowed the third-most QB rushing touchdowns last year, including three in those three games against running QBs.
Let's take the Malik Willis opening day escalator with lines that may never be priced this cheap again if he runs as much as expected. If you like the angles, they make a tidy SGP all together too.
The prop: Malik Willis Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetRivers)
Escalator bets: Willis 50+ Rush Yards (+178 at DraftKings), Willis 70+ Rush Yards (+574 at DraftKings), Willis 100+ Rush Yards (+2400 at DraftKings)
Anytime TD: Malik Willis (+340 at DraftKings)
SGP: Over 39.5, Willis Over 36.5 Rush Yards, Willis Anytime TD (+850 at DraftKings)
Saints vs Lions
This line is sitting at Lions -6.5 or -7, which feels like a trap dying to be teased.
I don't truly believe in Tyler Shough leading this New Orleans offense, but the Lions' secondary is remarkably banged up for a season that hasn't even started yet. Detroit is starting D.J. Reed and Rock Ya-Sin at corner, with veterans Avonte Maddox and Chuck Clark at safety.
Detroit allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers in each of the last two years. Last season, the Lions faced what I would consider 11 "true" WR1s. Those receivers averaged 5.9 catches for 88 yards on 9.9 targets, hitting 100 yards five times and 120 yards four times.
With rookie Jordan Tyson on IR, this is the Chris Olave show for New Orleans.
Olave averaged 2.37 yards per route run with Shough last year (8th best among all WRs), which was a 45% improvement over his numbers with Spencer Rattler.
In his last seven games with Shough, Olave averaged 6.4 catches for 86 yards on 9.9 targets — mirroring exactly what Detroit gives up to WR1s. He went for 100+ yards in three of those seven games, including twice with at least 119 yards.
The bet: Chris Olave Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (bet365)
Escalator bets: Olave 100+ Receiving Yards (+225 at bet365), Olave 120+ Receiving Yards (+450 at bet365)
Falcons vs Steelers
I grabbed this immediately at -3 on Labor Day morning once Tua Tagovailoa was named the starter. I actually make this line Steelers -6.5.
The handicap for Pittsburgh is very simple: does the opponent have a pass rush? Atlanta does not. Jalon Walker is on IR and James Pearce is suspended, so defensive regression is likely coming after a surprising season last fall.
Aaron Rodgers hates taking hits, but he won't be taking any here.
Atlanta's run defense has been poor in recent years, while Pittsburgh can run block and establish the ground game effectively. On the flip side, the Falcons want to run with Bijan Robinson, but Pittsburgh's run defense is proven and elite year after year.
Tagovailoa has no shot against T.J. Watt and this pass rush. His last game action was in Pittsburgh last December, where he trailed 28-3 in the fourth quarter until garbage time. He hasn't taken a snap since, and he may not have many left in the NFL at this rate.
The bet: Steelers -3.5
Update: With Cooper Rush starting for the injured Tua Tagovailoa, the line has moved to Steelers -6.
Texans vs Bills
It shouldn't come as a surprise that I love this under, seeing as I ranked the Bills 18th in my preseason power rankings and bet them to miss the playoffs.
I have huge doubts about everything in Buffalo outside of Josh Allen. DC Jim Leonhard's defense just isn't very talented, and I do not believe in their coaching or special teams. One man alone does not make a team.
Houston's run defense is elite and will not let Joe Brady's power run game dictate the pace.
While Allen is typically excellent against top defenses, he struggles mightily against Houston's man coverage. In 37 games over the last two years, Allen's games against the Texans rank 35th and 36th in dropback success rate. He even lost to Davis Mills last year!
This game just screams under. It's easy to imagine a cagey, playoff-like atmosphere.
Week 1 unders from 41 to 45.5 are 94-56-1 (64%). Allen road unders are 36-24-2 (60%), and C.J. Stroud home unders are an incredible 17-6 (74%). This is simply what both teams do in this spot.
I also think the wrong team is favored — I actually make this line Texans -4.
Historically, close lines don't necessarily mean close games. Since 2015, home 'dogs of less than 3 points have won outright 138 times — but in 84 of those wins (60%) were by a comfortable seven or more points.
Eight of Houston's 13 wins last season came by 7+ points. I'm skipping the +1.5; if we are going to be right, let's really be right.
The bet: Under 44.5
Alt Line: Texans -6.5 (+255 at FanDuel)
SGP: Texans -6.5 & Under 44.5 (+482 at FanDuel)
Jaguars vs Browns & Jets vs Titans
Jaguars -2.5 / Jets +7.5 (6-Point Teaser)
Browns vs Jaguars, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jets vs Titans, 1:00 p.m. ET
Week 1 gives us a great reminder of how to maximize teaser value. You want to take big home favorites under a touchdown to cross off the 7, 6, and 3. You also want short road 'dogs you already like to cross off the 3, 6, and 7 on the way up.
The Jaguars and Jets are both bullseyes for a standard Wong teaser.
There are all sorts of Week 1 trends backing the Browns, making them my top trend spot of the week and a classic spot to back an unbackable team when the public is overly confident.
So I can't take the Jaguars at -8.5, but teasing them down allows me to simply trust Liam Coen, Trevor Lawrence, and Anthony Campanile to win the game.
More importantly, I trust Deshaun Watson to take a big, fat road loss against a quality team.
Many of those same Week 1 trends also favor the Jets. You want to back Week 1 road 'dogs under 7, especially if they missed the playoffs the previous year.
What exactly have the Titans done to be deserving favorites in a real NFL game? I have the Jets ranked slightly better on offense, defense, and special teams. Both defenses can stop the run but ranked bottom-three against the pass last year.
Give me the better offensive line and the better quarterback — I'll take Geno Smith over Cam Ward right now.
Honestly, I think the Jets win this game outright, but getting +7.5 gives us plenty of breathing room with a low 38.5 total.
The bet: Jaguars -2.5 / Jets +7.5 (6-Point Teaser)
Vikings vs Packers
This isn't just me drinking the purple Kool-Aid — I am sticking to my preseason priors.
I love the Vikings to win the division at +510, as they are the healthiest team in the NFC North. I also bet the Packers to finish last in the division. This division is tough, but Minnesota looks as live as any of the four to have a big season.
Micah Parsons, Josh Jacobs, and Tucker Kraft are Green Bay's most important players after Jordan Love,. Two of them are out, and Kraft is well less than 100%.
The Packers seem very overrated in the market right now without those key players — I make this line closer to Vikings -4 or -5.
Green Bay features a bottom-five offensive line going up against Brian Flores' aggressive pressure defense. Not great.
Matt LaFleur wants to run a heavy ground attack, but he has no actual running backs available; Marshawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks, and Kaleb Johnson have a combined 480 career rushing yards. That's bad news behind a lackluster line.
On the other side, the Packers' run defense collapsed last year. Minnesota boasts a healthy offensive line and Frank Smith's redesigned rushing attack could make its mark early.
This is a dream home spot for the Vikings to jump on a wounded rival in Week 1.
In Week 1 divisional games featuring a playoff team against a non-playoff team, the non-playoff team is 42-18-1 ATS (70%).
The Vikings have won seven of the last 11 in this rivalry, but seven of the last nine meetings have been decided by 13 or more points, so these games are not always close even if it's a huge rivalry.
The bet: Vikings -1.5
Alt Line: Vikings -12.5 (+440 at FanDuel)
Monday Night Football: Broncos vs Chiefs
We are starting the season by going all the way down the mineshaft on Monday Night Football. There are a lot of unknowns in this game, and almost all of them point toward suppressing the score.
Patrick Mahomes is making his first start back from an ACL injury with no preseason reps, so we should expect some rust early.
The Chiefs are also dealing with a major offensive line issue. Left tackle Josh Simmons is likely out with a back injury, meaning Kansas City is rolling out undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson and right tackle Jaylon Moore to fend off Nik Bonitto and this fearsome Denver pass rush.
This is also not a great debut spot for Kenneth Walker against a Denver run defense that has been elite for the last two years.
On the other side, new Broncos offensive coordinator Davis Webb has to work out the kinks of his new offensive scheme against an always-good Steve Spagnuolo defense in primetime.
This division rivalry has been an under machine in recent years.
The Broncos have covered four of the last five meetings after Kansas City won 16 straight, but more importantly, these teams have played six straight matchups that finished at 41 points or below, averaging just 33.7 points per game.
This is the totals trend spot of the week.
Non-Thursday primetime unders are hitting at 60% since 2019 (161-107-4). Monday night divisional unders with a total between 41 and 48 are hitting at 66% since 2018. Week 1 unders from 41 to 45.5 are an incredible 94-56-1 (63%).
We also have double-digit winds forecasted, and windy unders have cashed at 61% over the last five years.
Mahomes as a home favorite is 40-21-1 to the under in his career, including a 22-7 (76%) mark since 2022. It's not as exciting as we want Mahomes to be, but this is just what the Chiefs do in this spot — grind it out and hope to win a close one.
Both of these teams played 11 games last year that finished at 43 points or below. The Chiefs had nine games finish at 37 or below, and Denver had seven at 33 or below.
Let's go all the way down the mineshaft.
The bet: Under 43.5
Mineshaft bets: Alt Under 37.5 (+188 at FanDuel), Alt Under 33.5 (+330 at DraftKings)
Week 2 Lookahead: Browns vs Buccaneers
Looking ahead to Week 2, I'm going to grab the Buccaneers -6 at home against the Browns.
The goal of the Lookahead is to get ahead of the weekend's results and secure a line you won't find later. Usually that means grabbing a favorite before that line moves up even further.
Cleveland is a huge underdog in Jacksonville and will likely get smashed with Deshaun Watson looking terrible.
Todd Bowles teams typically start fast in September, and if the Bucs beat the Bengals or Cleveland gets blown out, this line will likely jump to -7 or higher, past that most important key number.
As for the matchup itself, Cleveland has the worst offensive line in the league and cannot run on Vita Vea and company, so now you've got Watson behind a bad line against all that Bowles pressure, for a team playing its second straight game in the September Florida heat.
Grab this line under the key number now before you have to lay a touchdown or more next week.
Lookahead bet: Buccaneers -6 (Caesars)
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