We put a bow on NFL Week 1 with an AFC West tilt between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. Broncos vs Chiefs will broadcast live tonight on ESPN and ABC at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Continue below for my Broncos vs Chiefs parlay, which includes picks for the moneyline, over/under and Patrick Mahomes prop.
Chiefs vs Broncos Parlay
- Broncos Moneyline (+110)
- Under 43.5 (-112)
- Patrick Mahomes Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-116)
Parlay Odds: +550
Odds via DraftKings are subject to change*
Chiefs vs Broncos Odds
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -112 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | +110 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -108 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | -130 |
Chiefs vs Broncos Preview
Broncos Moneyline
I like the Broncos moneyline because we're getting a +110 price on the better team.
The Broncos have a well-rounded roster, including an improving quarterback with Bo nix, a strong offensive line, and a running game that should be boosted by a healthy J.K. Dobbins. Let's not forget that they added a potential WR1 with Jaylen Waddle from the Dolphins.
On defense, the Broncos are stacked on all three levels, particularly with edge rusher Nik Bonitto and cornerback Pat Surtain II.
This is a group that has a lot of continuity, both throughout the roster as well as the coaching staff. They're being undervalued tonight, especially when you consider what's going on with the Chiefs right now.
Under 43.5
I'll add Under 43.5 because we're getting above the key number of 43, meaning that we win this wager with a common score line of 23-20. Despite a high-scoring Week 1, I favor the defenses here.
Let's start with the injuries.
The biggest absence comes on the Chiefs' side, with left tackle Josh Simmons out for this game. That's bad news against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
On top of that, the Chiefs defense could be improved this year. They used each of their first-round picks on defensive players, including cornerback Mansoor Delane and defensive tackle Peter Woods, with the latter looking like a difference-maker throughout camp.
In a game that projects to be close, riding with the Under feels like the smart move.
Patrick Mahomes Under 14.5 Rushing Yards
I'll finish off this parlay with Patrick Mahomes Under 14.5 Rushing Yards.
This will be Mahomes' first game coming off a torn ACL. He was able to recover faster than anticipated, but we still have to bake in some risk that he's not nearly as mobile as before. There's a chance that Mahomes won't take off and run as often.
While oddsmakers are already baking in this risk with the number of 14.5 — Mahomes averaged 30.1 rushing yards per game last year — it's just a unique spot where it's his first game back. He may not want to put a lot of strain on his surgically repaired knee.
Add in the fact that the Chiefs signed Kenneth Walker, they may go more run-heavy, leading to fewer Mahomes dropbacks.
Chiefs vs Broncos Same-Game Parlay
- Broncos Moneyline (+110)
- Under 43.5 (-112)
- Patrick Mahomes Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-116)
Parlay Odds: +550
